Eric Rosales
• Betting Analyst
27+ years betting experience
Updated:
Aug 3, 2026 , 05:50 PM ET
• 4 min read
Our WNBA expert is backing the Mercury to cover as 1.5-point underdogs.
Photo By – Reuters Connect. Kahleah Copper (2) celebrates with teammates during a game against the Liberty.
Two teams on the fringes of the WNBA playoff picture meet tonight, when the Phoenix Mercury visit the Chicago Sky as 1.5-point underdogs on August 3.
Despite Chicago playing its best stretch of basketball this season, my Mercury vs. Sky predictions and WNBA picks have Phoenix as underdogs by betting lines only, as it has dominated this head-to-head.
Mercury vs Sky prediction
Mercury vs Sky best bet: Mercury +1.5 (-120)
The Chicago Sky just outlasted Vegas 84-83, and Chicago is showing sound defensive form lately, winning four of six while holding opponents to a league-best 27.2% from three over that stretch.
The Phoenix Mercury are hot too, winning three of four and allowing just 82 points per game. They could get an offensive lift if Kelsey Plum returns to a lineup that ranks 11th in scoring.
More importantly, the Mercury have dominated this matchup, winning eight of the last nine meetings, including four straight in Chicago by at least five points.
I’d back Phoenix up to -1.5.
COVERS INTEL: Chicago guard Sydney Taylor is flying under the radar in a runaway ROTY run by Minnesota’s Olivia Miles. Taylor leads her team in scoring and is currently on a run of 15+ points in eight of the Sky’s last nine games.Enjoying Covers content? Add us as a preferred source on your Google account
Mercury vs Sky same-game parlay
Sky big Kamilla Cardoso may be coming off a 12-rebound game last time out against Vegas, but she’s only topped her 8.5-rebound line four times in the last 12 games. She’s also gone Under this total in two games against Phoenix this season.
Mercury leading scorer Kahleah Copper is getting plus odds on her 22.5 scoring line, but she’s scorching right now, topping that total in back-to-back games.
She’s gone for 20+ in 12 of her last 16, hitting 23+ points eight times, including a 25-point effort against Chicago on July 7.
Mercury vs Sky SGP
- Mercury +1.5
- Kamilla Cardoso Under 8.5 rebounds
- Kahleah Copper Over 22.5 points
Want more basketball parlays? Check out our WNBA parlay picks page!
Mercury vs Sky player prop pick
Alyssa Thomas Over 8.5 assists (+100)
She might not have crossed her 8.5-assist line in two previous matchups with Chicago this season, but current WNBA assist leader Alyssa Thomas has been dishing plenty of late.
She has a season-best 15 against L.A., giving her double-digit dimes in three of her last six, missing the Over by a single assist another time.
Eric Rosales’ 2026 Transparency Record
- Best bet: 11-15, -4.02 units
- SGP: 1-24, -18.9 units
- Player prop: 8-4, +3.52 units
Mercury vs Sky odds
- Spread: Mercury +1.5 | Sky -1.5
- Moneyline: Mercury -105 | Sky -115
- Over/Under: Over 179.5 | Under 179.5
Mercury vs Sky trend
The Sky have lost 14 straight games after winning as underdogs. Find more WNBA betting trends.
How to watch Mercury vs Sky
| Location | Wintrust Arena, Chicago, IL |
| Date | Monday, August 3, 2026 |
| Tip-off | 9 p.m. ET |
| TV | USA Network |
Mercury vs Sky latest injuries
Mercury: Kelsey Plum (Questionable), Sami Whitcomb (Questionable).
Sky: Azura Stevens (Out), Skylar Diggins (Out).
Find our latest WNBA injury reports.
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
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