Mercury vs Dream Prediction, Picks & Odds: Who Will Win Tonight’s WNBA Game?
Eric Rosales
• Betting Analyst
27+ years betting experience
Updated:
Aug 5, 2026 , 04:17 PM ET
• 4 min read
Our WNBA expert believes Phoenix will keep it close, with Kelsey Plum’s 3-point shooting helping the cause.
Phoenix +5.5 (-105)
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Photo By – Reuters Connect. Phoenix Mercury guard Kelsey Plum (0) goes to the basket against the Chicago Sky
The Phoenix Mercury are on a late-season surge but will be put to the test tonight when they visit what should be a surly Atlanta Dream — who are coming off their worst beating of the WNBA season.
My Mercury vs. Sky predictions and WNBA picks have Phoenix keeping it close as a 5.5-point underdog, though not necessarily enough to pull out a victory on Wednesday, Aug. 5.
Mercury vs Dream prediction
Mercury vs Dream best bet: Mercury +5.5 (-120)
The Atlanta Dream’s five-game win streak went up in smoke last game, when they allowed a season-worst 109 points in a 22-point loss to Vegas.
The run looks less impressive considering all but one of those wins came against non-playoff teams.
The Phoenix Mercury fit that profile, too, but their offense looks revitalized after adding Kelsey Plum, who scored 20 points in a 106-point outburst — the team’s second-highest output this year — in her Mercury debut.
Atlanta has won four straight in this series, but Phoenix’s upgraded offense will keep this game close.
I’d back the Mercury at +3.5 or better.
COVERS INTEL: With Plum in the lineup to provide ample scoring alongside Kahleah Copper, Alyssa Thomas is now a supercharged third option, and the Dream are aware of the damage she can dish out. Thomas has averaged 12.9 points, 9.8 rebounds and 7.3 assists in her last 10 games against the Dream.Enjoying Covers content? Add us as a preferred source on your Google account
Mercury vs Dream same-game parlay
Allisha Gray is coming off a season-low seven points in the loss to Vegas. The league’s eighth-leading scorer had gone for at least 19 points in six of her previous eight before that dud.
She’s topped her 18.5 line vs the Mercury in five of the last eight, missing the Over in two other games by three total points.
Thomas has been particularly solid on the glass against Atlanta.
She has recorded eight or more rebounds in each of her last five appearances against the Dream, going Over her 8.5 line three times and missing each of the other two by a single board.
Mercury vs Dream SGP
- Mercury +5.5
- Allisha Gray Over 18.5 points
- Alyssa Thomas Over 8.5 rebounds
Want more basketball parlays? Check out our WNBA parlay picks page!
Mercury vs Dream player prop pick
Kelsey Plum Over 1.5 made threes (-160)
Plum came off the bench in her Mercury debut and showed range, going 3-for-5 from downtown. She’s hitting at a scorching 39.5% from distance on the year.
That’s a generous 3-point make line, considering she’s hit at least two triples in eight of her last nine games against Atlanta.
Eric Rosales’ 2026 Transparency Record
- Best bet: 12-15, -3.19 units
- SGP: 1-25, -19.9 units
- Player prop: 9-4, +4.52 units
Mercury vs Dream odds
- Spread: Mercury +5.5 (-110) | Dream -5.5 (-110)
- Moneyline: Mercury +170 | Dream -205
- Over/Under: Over 182.5 (-110) | Under 182.5 (-110)
Mercury vs Dream trend
The Dream have failed to cover the spread in 10 straight games vs Western Conference opponents. Find more WNBA betting trends.
How to watch Mercury vs Dream
| Location | Gateway Center Arena, College Park, GA |
| Date | Wednesday, August 5, 2026 |
| Tip-off | 7 p.m. ET |
| TV | AZ Family Sports, Peachtree Sports Network |
Mercury vs Dream latest injuries
Mercury: Jovana Nogic G (Out).
Dream: Te-Hina Paopao G (Out).
Find our latest WNBA injury reports.
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
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