Massie vs. Trump tests MAGA’s cracks in Kentucky

Republican Rep. Thomas Massie’s Kentucky primary has turned into the most expensive House primary in U.S. history, with President Donald Trump backing his challenger, Ed Gallrein, and prominent MAGA figures like Lauren Boebert and Marjorie Taylor Greene openly

By the time Rep. Thomas Massie walked into the final stretch of Kentucky’s Republican primary, he wasn’t just running for re-election—he was daring the political gravity of Donald Trump.

Trump has spent weeks trying to oust the conservative lawmaker. backing Massie’s challenger. Ed Gallrein. a former Navy SEAL and fifth-generation farmer. But in Kentucky’s 4th congressional district race on Tuesday. the president’s influence is colliding with something messier and more personal: a faction of the MAGA movement that is willing to defy him anyway.

Massie has positioned himself as part of a strand of Trump-era politics anchored in non-interventionism. fiscal restraint. and skepticism of government power. Yet he has also broken with Trump on several issues. including the war in Iran. the president’s “One Big Beautiful Bill” package. and the administration’s handling of files associated with the late convicted sex offender Jeffrey Epstein.

Trump has noticed. On Truth Social on Sunday, he accused Massie of voting against “Tax Cuts, the Border Wall, our Military and Law Enforcement,” and called him “the Worst Republican Congressman in History.” He told Kentucky Republicans, “vote the bum out on Tuesday.”

That endorsement matters because the president’s backing has long carried real weight in Republican primaries. Still, several high-profile MAGA figureheads have leaned into the fight for Massie—sometimes even at the risk of becoming targets of Trump himself.

Colorado’s Lauren Boebert went first, stepping into Kentucky in the final days before the primary. The Colorado Republican—once dubbed a “MAGA warrior” by Trump when she endorsed her reelection bid—openly backed Massie in his race. She traveled to Kentucky and campaigned alongside him at multiple stops. praising him and calling him a reliable ally in Congress.

Kyle Rittenhouse, a name that remains radioactive in American politics, also voiced support for Massie. MAGA had praised Rittenhouse after he fatally shot two people and wounded another during a Black Lives Matter protest in Kenosha. Wisconsin. in August 2020. Rittenhouse was acquitted of all charges in 2021. But his appearance drew backlash from members of the Make America Great Again movement after he showed up at a Massie campaign event in Florence on Friday.

Vince Langman, who describes himself as a self-styled MAGA “deplorable,” wrote: “Wow! Kyle Rittenhouse turned out to be a complete douchebag, we should’ve left him to the liberal wolves in 2020!” and said the message was only one of many along the same line posted online.

Marjorie Taylor Greene—whose falling-out with Trump over the handling of the Epstein filers has been loud and well documented—also publicly encouraged support for Massie, arguing he still represented “America First politics.”

That encouragement spread beyond the political class and into feeds, captions, and endorsement threads. Evan Kilgore, who describes himself as an “American exceptionalist,” told his 180,000-plus followers: “I stand with Lauren Boebert. I stand with Thomas Massie. I stand with Marjorie Taylor Greene. I stand with Tucker Carlson. I stand with Candace Owens.” He later wrote: “I didn’t leave MAGA. MAGA left me. Donald Trump has betrayed us all.”.

The message made it clear where some MAGA loyalty now sits: not neatly with Trump.

Boebert, though, tried to draw a line that kept both men in view. In backing Massie, she emphasized that she supported Trump, too. “Below is my friend Thomas Massie. He loves America and is fighting to save it. Also below is my friend and President, Donald Trump. He’s put his life on the line to save this great country,” she wrote. “I support both of these men. I’ve worked with both to preserve freedom and liberty. And if that makes you angry, bless your heart.”.

But Trump’s wrath found her anyway. On Truth Social on Saturday. he threatened a primary contest against her. asking: “Is anyone interested in running against Weak Minded Lauren Boebert in Colorado’s Fourth Congressional District…” He added that she was “campaigning for the Worst ‘Republican’ Congressman in the History of our Country. Thomas Massie. of the Great Commonwealth of Kentucky. ” and wrote that “anybody who can be that dumb deserves a good Primary fight!”.

Boebert responded quickly, writing: “Yes, I saw the President’s post. No, I’m not mad or offended. I knew the risks when I agreed to stand by my friend Thomas Massie. I was, and will be, America First, America Always, and MAGA. Onward.”

The stakes have only grown because the president’s recent pattern has been consistent: when Trump targets Republicans, his endorsements can mobilize donors and primary voters. That was reflected in results in Louisiana and Indiana.

Just this past weekend, GOP Senator Bill Cassidy lost to a Trump-backed challenger in Louisiana. Cassidy had voted to convict Trump in February 2021 during his second impeachment trial. He missed the runoff, finishing behind Representative Julia Letlow, who capitalized on Trump’s endorsement.

On May 5, Trump-backed challengers won at least five of the seven Indiana Republican state Senate primaries in which the president targeted senators who opposed his mid-decade congressional redistricting plan.

For Massie, the Kentucky primary is now more than a referendum on one congressman. The race has also become the most expensive House primary in U.S. history, with outside groups and national Republicans spending more than $32 million on ads, according to multiple outlets citing AdImpact.

Inside that money and noise, Massie has tried to frame the fight as proof of limits—proof that even a president who tweets and endures a battlefield of party discipline can’t fully control every outcome.

Speaking on ABC News’ This Week on Sunday, Massie said, “I’m the only one they haven’t been able to bully.” He added: “I’m ahead in the polls, and they’re desperate … That’s why the president’s losing sleep and tweeting about this.”

A Massie loss would push the opposite message through Republican ranks: dissent in the party’s orbit can carry a cost. particularly in primaries where presidential endorsements can still summon momentum from voters and donors. A Massie win. on the other hand. could suggest that Trump’s grip has seams—especially in districts where incumbents can lean on local support rather than national branding.

In polls, the race looks narrow but volatile. In the latest polling for Big Data Poll of Kentucky’s fourth district, Massie is slightly ahead of Gallrein, 50.6 percent to 49.4 percent. That is a dip from last month, when Massie had 52.4 percent compared with Gallrein’s 47.6 percent.

Gallrein led another recent poll from Quantus Insights. That survey found that 53 percent of respondents planned to support him, compared to 45 percent who planned to vote for Massie. Two percent were undecided. It surveyed 908 likely voters May 11–12 and had a margin of error of plus or minus 3.3 percentage points.

Betting markets have also stayed tightly contested. On Kalshi. at the time of writing. Massie has a 45 percent chance of becoming Kentucky’s next Republican nominee while Gallrein holds odds of 58 percent. Polymarket carries similar numbers, with Massie at a 43 percent chance of success and Gallrein at 58 percent.

The whole fight is being watched like a political weather system—because the direction it points matters to Republicans beyond Kentucky. One politics professor. Calvin Jillson. said that if Massie goes down—particularly after the defeat of Louisiana Senator Bill Cassidy and several Indiana state senators in recent days and weeks—Trump’s influence would be further highlighted and increasingly feared. But if Massie survives. Jillson said. Trump’s firm grip on the party might be seen as loosening. and his sinking approval ratings could be cited as the reason.

Mark Shanahan. who teaches American politics at the University of Surrey in the U.K. framed it even more bluntly: if Republicans in Kentucky reject Massie out of hand. “it’s likely his influence will disappear alongside his Congressional career.” In that scenario. voters would have “confirmed the Trumpist vision as being the core of modern Republicanism.” But Shanahan said a Massie success could embolden other legislators to be more critical of the president—and possibly embolden voters across the country to reject this iteration of Republicanism when they get a chance to vote.

For now, the question remains simple and brutal: whether the Republican Party is still built to absorb a president’s will—or whether some corners of it are starting to push back, even at the cost of provoking a fight they can’t control.

Thomas Massie Donald Trump Ed Gallrein Lauren Boebert Marjorie Taylor Greene Kyle Rittenhouse Kentucky 4th district primary MAGA Truth Social Bill Cassidy Indiana state Senate primaries Epstein filers One Big Beautiful Bill