Massachusetts needs – A new report warns Massachusetts could face major labor shortages across health care, higher education, and construction unless it attracts roughly 60,000 to 64,000 new immigrant arrivals each year through 2030—figures that are in jeopardy as national immigrat
On a day when the future of Temporary Protected Status for Haitians is still tied up in court, Massachusetts is being told—plainly, with numbers—that the state’s workforce cannot absorb the losses quietly.
A new report by Boston Indicators and the MassInc Policy Center says Massachusetts will need at least 60. 000 new immigrants each year through 2030 to sustain its working-age population and avoid a labor-force decline. The analysis. released Thursday. points to a mix of pressures: an aging workforce. residents moving out of state. and slowing immigration overall.
“We are people who come here to make the country move forward,” Carline Desire, executive director of the Association of Haitian Women in Boston, told Boston.com. “It’s not about abusing the system here — it’s about how do we contribute to take care of ourselves [and] take care of our people.”
The report frames the stakes as more than economics. It warns that declining immigration could translate into slower economic growth and worsening labor shortages in industries already stretched—especially health care, higher education, and construction.
Immigrants already power a large share of Massachusetts’ labor market. The report says immigrants make up roughly one-quarter of the state’s labor force. In 2024, it estimates immigrants had $50.5 billion in spending power and contributed about $7.4 billion in state and local taxes.
To estimate what comes next, Boston Indicators and MassInc looked at labor-force aging, population growth, domestic migration, and newcomer arrivals. Researchers estimate Massachusetts loses roughly 29,000 workers each year as residents retire or move out of the state. Replacing those losses would require between 60,000 and 64,000 new immigrant arrivals annually through 2030, the report says.
Even the state’s projected net international migration falls short. The report estimates Massachusetts could receive roughly 29,000 net international migrants in 2026—less than half the number needed to maintain the state’s current labor-force size.
At the national level, the report says immigration could drop sharply from recent highs. The U.S. Census Bureau estimates immigration could fall nearly 90 percent from its 2024 peak by mid-2026. Separate estimates from the Brookings Institution cited in the report suggest the U.S. could experience a net loss of nearly 1 million immigrants by the end of the year.
The report also points to increased federal immigration enforcement efforts under the Trump administration. including Operation Patriot 1 and Operation Patriot 2. which it says resulted in nearly 3. 000 arrests in Massachusetts. It notes that many of those arrested were immigrants from Brazil, the Dominican Republic, and Haiti.
“While conditions are changing quickly, and we are less than a year and a half into the second Trump term, national and state data already show compounding declines in immigration flows,” the report states.
For Desire, the consequences land closest to home through the state’s health care workforce.
The report says health care is among the industries most vulnerable to declining immigration. Immigrants already play a significant role there, and federal court action on TPS could add new strain.
TPS allows people from countries experiencing armed conflict, environmental disasters, or other extraordinary conditions to live and work legally in the U.S. The report highlights concerns that changes to the program could further strain Massachusetts’ health care workforce.
It points to the Massachusetts Senior Care Association’s finding that 40 percent of nursing facility workers in Massachusetts are foreign-born. including roughly 2. 000 frontline workers with Haitian Temporary Protected Status (TPS). In Massachusetts. it adds. ending TPS protections for Haitians could impact roughly 45. 000 residents who depend on the program to live and work in the U.S.
Nursing homes may be especially exposed, the report says, because they already operate with narrow margins and chronic staffing shortages. It estimates nursing facilities statewide currently face direct-care vacancy rates of approximately 13 percent.
Last month, Sens. Ed Markey and Elizabeth Warren and Rep. Ayanna Pressley released a report examining the potential impact of ending TPS protections for Haitians immigrants on the health care system. They argued terminating the program would worsen workforce shortages and limit access to care.
Warren said in a statement to Boston.com. “If the Trump administration ends legal protections for Haitian workers. everyone will be worse off. The health care system is already strained from significant federal budget cuts. and this cruel decision would put patient care at risk nationwide. We must keep fighting back.”.
The lawmakers’ report also said uncertainty surrounding immigration status is already affecting providers, as some workers lose authorizations to work while others leave positions early due to concerns about their future legal status.
Desire said Haitian immigrants have become increasingly important to Massachusetts health care. working as certified nursing assistants. managers. administrative staff. and home health care workers. She said nursing homes and hospitals are already struggling to hire workers. and further losses could increase workloads. contribute to burnout. and affect patient care.
“If they were to lose [TPS workers], things could get really difficult for the nursing homes,” Desire said. She added that many Haitian immigrants affected by TPS have lived in the U.S. for decades and have built lives, careers, and families in Massachusetts.
“We have an amazing workforce when it comes to Haitian people,” Desire said. “They are hard workers. They respect people. They do what they need to do. And they are team players.”
Desire said the impact reaches beyond hospitals and nursing facilities. She said immigrants fill essential jobs in schools, transportation systems, and small businesses across the state.
“They end up contributing a lot more than people think,” she said. “I think whether it be the jobs that they hold, whether it be the taxes that they pay, and so many other things, they are extremely important to the Massachusetts economy today.”
The report also points to education as another pressure point. It says Massachusetts has the largest international student population in the nation in terms of total high-education enrollment and the fourth-largest international student population overall. behind California. New York. and Texas. It notes that international students contribute to the state’s economy through tuition payments and spending on housing. food. transportation. and other local services.
Desire said immigrants support schools in less visible but essential roles, including as bus drivers, cafeteria workers, and aides who support students with disabilities.
Construction is where the numbers may show up as delays.
The report says immigrant workers play a critical role in building new housing in a state already grappling with a severe housing shortage. Boston Indicators and MassInc interviewed homebuilders. who described growing workforce instability and project delays tied in part to concerns about heightened immigration enforcement activity.
“While projects have not fully shut down due to the immigration crackdown, employers repeatedly warned that gradual labor force erosion can lead to delays and added costs that compound over time, particularly when combined with high interest rates and rising materials costs,” the report states.
For now. the report’s central warning is that Massachusetts may need a level of immigration that matches the scale of workforce losses—and that the programs and policies shaping arrivals are changing fast. In the middle of that uncertainty. TPS for Haitians sits in limbo. and health care workforce plans that depend on stable staffing are forced to confront the possibility of sudden gaps.
Massachusetts immigration workforce labor shortages TPS Haitian TPS health care nursing homes housing construction international students
So basically they want 60k immigrants a year? Idk seems like a lot.
Wait is this saying Massachusetts can’t work without immigrants… or they just don’t want locals? I skimmed.
This is wild because my brother says they’re already short nurses but somehow it’s “in jeopardy” like people just won’t show up. Also Haitians being stuck in court is awful, but I keep hearing T.P.S. and then nothing changes. 60,000 sounds like a political number, not a real fix.
Massachusetts has “major labor shortages” so they’re asking for immigrants through 2030… ok but why not pay more or train people already here? It’s always immigration as the answer. And aging workforce is a choice too, not to be rude. If they’re gonna do this, they better make it faster and not another courtroom delay thing.