super El – Forecasters say a rare “super” El Niño could develop later this year, bringing warmer ocean conditions that reshape global weather. In Massachusetts, experts expect a hotter, more humid summer and a reduced risk of Atlantic hurricanes, while emphasizing that u
Beachgoers and families packing beach bags this summer may soon feel a familiar kind of weather shift—just one that starts thousands of miles away.. Scientists are increasingly weighing whether a rare “super” El Niño is forming in the tropical Pacific Ocean. with forecasters saying the event could strengthen later this year.
An El Niño. which tends to occur roughly every three to seven years. is a climate phenomenon in which surface waters in the equatorial Pacific Ocean become significantly warmer than average.. A “super” El Niño is defined when those temperatures rise even further—specifically. Christopher Skinner. a professor of atmospheric sciences at UMass Lowell. said the ocean waters need to warm about 2 degrees Celsius above average for the event to be classified as a “super” El Niño.
Researchers are still determining how strong the possible event could become. Scientists said they are not yet completely certain a “super” El Niño will develop, but that an El Niño event itself is expected, with more clarity likely by June or July.
The last “super” El Niño occurred in 2015-16. producing one of the warmest winters on record across parts of New England. according to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration.. Earlier “super” events took place in 1997-1998, 1982-1983, and 1972-1973.. Some projections suggest Pacific Ocean temperatures could rise close to 3 degrees Celsius above average by late 2026. potentially making it one of the strongest El Niño events on record.
The stakes are not confined to the ocean.. Mathew Barlow. a physical climate scientist and professor at UMass Lowell. stressed that even a few degrees of temperature change can be enough to shift tropical rain patterns substantially.. “What goes on in the tropical Pacific doesn’t stay in the tropical Pacific. ” he said. adding that it influences global weather and climate across the United States and every major continent.
Those disruptions are typically strongest in tropical regions.. Skinner said parts of the Amazon rainforest. southern Africa. and Australia experience drought conditions during El Niño years. while other regions face heavier rainfall and flooding.. In the U.S.. Skinner said the southern tier of the country—stretching from California to Florida—tends to see wetter-than-average conditions during El Niño events.
For Massachusetts, experts say the connection is weaker than it is elsewhere. Skinner said the clearest local impacts are usually warmer winters, less snowfall, and more humid conditions. Summer effects, by contrast, are generally “fairly muted,” Skinner said.
Even so. residents could still see above-average warmth and humidity in summer. which can sometimes contribute to increased precipitation across the Northeast. Skinner said.. One potential upside is that Atlantic hurricane activity often decreases during El Niño years. due to stronger upper-level winds disrupting storm formation.. Skinner said hurricanes tend to get “ripped apart during El Niño year. ” adding that they do not “really form and certainly don’t make it this far north. ” though he noted it “could still happen. ” even if the probability is lower.
Barlow said impacts in Massachusetts could vary between coastal and inland areas. but he said the signal may not be strong enough for researchers to confidently predict differences between areas.. He also characterized the effects as indirect rather than direct. pointing to possible disruptions in agriculture. food systems. and international stability caused by extreme weather elsewhere.. Skinner said New England residents should pay close attention to impacts abroad. especially in regions vulnerable to extreme drought. flooding. and wildfires. because disruptions to agriculture and trade can ripple across the global economy.
Residents are being urged to plan for another hot summer.. Skinner said people should ensure access to air conditioning and check on vulnerable groups, including older adults and young children.. “The advice I would give is similar to any summer because it is getting so much hotter every single year. ” he added.
Uncertainty is still the defining feature of the forecast.. One of the biggest unanswered questions is how a “super” El Niño may interact with human-caused climate change. Barlow said.. Because these events occur relatively infrequently, scientists have limited historical data to analyze.. Barlow also said cuts to federally funded climate and atmospheric research weaken scientists’ ability to monitor and predict future extreme weather events. saying. “[It’s] really putting us in a huge deficit to understand these events going forward.” He pointed to fewer forecasts. fewer data. and the reduction of national labs that reduce the ability to continue understanding these events as the climate warms.
The pattern that keeps showing up across the forecast is that stronger Pacific warming can reorder tropical rainfall and. in turn. influence the U.S.. in uneven ways—Skinner tied Massachusetts to warmer. more humid conditions while also warning that summer signals are muted. and Barlow said the event’s Massachusetts effects are indirect through knock-on disruptions abroad.
super El Niño El Niño Massachusetts weather Atlantic hurricanes UMass Lowell climate research humidity NOAA tropical Pacific