Mary Peltola gets fresh odds of flipping Alaska as fellow Democrat David Leslie withdraws from closely watched Senate race

Mary Peltola’s chances of flipping Alaska’s Senate seat have improved after fellow Democrat David Leslie dropped out of the closely watched race, clearing the party’s path ahead of November’s election.

David Leslie drops out of the race

Leslie withdrew on August 31 after finishing fourth in the state’s August 18 primary, leaving Peltola as the only Democrat facing three Republican Party-aligned candidates under Alaska’s unusual ranked-choice voting system.

Following Leslie’s exit, VoteHub shifted its forecast for the race from a toss-up to “tilt Democrat,” citing Peltola’s polling and fundraising advantages after she came within striking distance of an outright majority in the primary.

Certified results show Peltola leading the field with 49.54 percent, compared with 41.40 percent for Republican incumbent Sen. Dan S. Sullivan.

Daniel J. Sullivan Jr. finished with 2.47 percent, while Leslie placed fourth with 1,850 votes. Gerald Heikes finished fifth with 1.05 percent but advanced to the November ballot following Leslie’s withdrawal.

Peltola collected 82,244 votes overall, giving her an 8.14-point advantage over Sullivan.

Shift in prediction odds

Peltola’s position has also strengthened in polling and prediction markets. RealClearPolling’s average through August 4 showed Peltola ahead by two points, 49 percent to 47 percent.

Kalshi gave Democrats a 63 percent chance of winning the seat, while Polymarket put Peltola’s chances at 66 percent.

Election forecasters remain divided, however. Decision Desk HQ narrowly favors Peltola, while Inside Elections continues to rate the contest “lean” Republican.

Uncertainty in the race

Alaska’s election system adds uncertainty to the race. The top four primary candidates advance regardless of party, while voters rank candidates in the general election.

If nobody initially receives a majority, the lowest-performing candidate is eliminated and their ballots are redistributed based on voters’ next available choices. The process continues until one candidate surpasses 50 percent.

That means having three Republican Party-aligned candidates on the ballot does not necessarily permanently split the conservative vote because their supporters can rank Sullivan as a subsequent choice.

Still, Leslie’s departure means Peltola will no longer have to compete with another Democrat for rankings in the November 3 election.

Another wildcard is Sullivan Jr., who shares the incumbent’s first and last name. Alaska’s ballot identifies him as “Daniel J. Sullivan Jr.” without a party affiliation, while the Republican senator is listed as “Dan S. Sullivan,” Republican and incumbent.

With Leslie gone, Peltola now enters the final stretch with a consolidated Democratic lane and a primary showing that puts an Alaska flip firmly within reach.