With the 2026 draft lottery swinging the No. 1 pick back to Toronto for the first time since 2016, the Maple Leafs face a decision that could reshape their next decade: take Gavin McKenna or Ivar Stenberg, go off-script for another prospect, trade down for a d
A month from June 26. the Toronto Maple Leafs are staring at a prize that has been missing from their rebuild for years. After missing the post-season for the first time in a decade. and with a new general manager and head coach ready to reshape the organization in 2026-27. Toronto has finally landed the first-overall pick in the 2026 draft.
It’s the first time the Maple Leafs will draft No. 1 since 2016, the last time they missed the post-season. They will be selecting first for only the third time in franchise history, with the other two occasions at No. 1 bringing in franchise cornerstones Auston Matthews and Wendel Clark. This time. though. the pick isn’t just about celebration—it’s about narrowing uncertainty. and doing it under real pressure.
Questions have swirled heading into the summer: the disappointment of the 2025-26 campaign still hangs over the organization. doubts remain around what the franchise’s next chapter looks like. and attention has focused on the hiring of new general manager John Chayka. The lottery twist doesn’t remove those concerns—it intensifies them. Getting the top pick is the easy part. Choosing what comes next is where the future gets decided.
At the center of the decision are five clear routes Toronto could take with the No. 1 pick.
First is the straightforward option: select Gavin McKenna.
Toronto’s case for McKenna is built on familiarity and momentum. Scouts have described the Canadian prospect as one of the safest bets in a draft that keeps him near the top. After a dominant final year in the WHL. where he scored 129 points in 56 games for Medicine Hat. McKenna then produced in his freshman year with Penn State. collecting 51 points in 35 games at the college level. The details matter: 33 of those points came in his final 18 games as he caught fire down the stretch. For the Leafs. there’s also a practical appeal—McKenna could be an impactful addition on Mitch Marner’s wing position Matthews’ side.
The risk sits in the comparison. With another standout prospect also in the mix. Toronto knows it’s possible they pick the safer name and still lose the “true” talent race. The Maple Leafs could draft McKenna. see him struggle in any way. and watch Ivar Stenberg go on to become an all-world player. In a class where top-tier prospects are competing for the No. 1 label, that kind of gap doesn’t disappear. It follows the team.
The second route is to take Stenberg instead.
Stenberg’s pitch is that the Maple Leafs might be choosing a more complete hockey player. He has been edging past McKenna in pre-draft rankings across the hockey world. and Jason Bukala—formerly director of amateur scouting for the Florida Panthers—ranked Stenberg as his No. 1 prospect heading into the draft. Bukala has pointed to Stenberg’s versatility and defensive play as key reasons. describing the Frolunda HC product as a more complete player.
Still, offence isn’t an afterthought. Playing against men in the Swedish Hockey League. Stenberg put up the third-most points of any draft-eligible player in SHL history. Only Daniel and Henrik Sedin produced more. For Toronto. that combination—the ability to contribute defensively without losing the scoring threat—could align with the franchise’s need to find a top-level impact piece.
The downside is the same kind of sting, just aimed in the opposite direction. If Toronto chooses Stenberg and then sees McKenna emerge as an all-world NHL talent—potentially on the international stage in a Team Canada sweater—then June’s decision becomes a years-long argument inside the fanbase.
A third option would be to draft someone else entirely at No. 1.
This path looks appealing only in theory. The argument in favour is mostly about fitting a specific organizational need. Toronto could use more firepower and. after a season that left the club in the middle of the pack offensively. the allure of adding help through the draft makes sense. There is also a promising centre in Caleb Malhotra, ranked the third-best prospect in the class by Jason Bukala. Over the past couple of years. the Leafs have seen their depth down the middle worn thin. which gives Toronto a reason to think beyond the two headline wingers.
But the gamble is obvious: leaving the best and second-best prospects on the board. The upside of selecting someone else at No. 1 is quickly clouded by the history of the draft’s top end. where the best route is often the simplest one—take the best player available first and sort the rest later. Going against that grain could mean watching either McKenna or Stenberg fall to Vancouver at No. 3, a prospect that would be difficult for Leafs fans to swallow unless Toronto’s choice vastly exceeds expectations.
Then there’s the fourth route, which changes the whole conversation: trade down and draft a defenceman.
For this approach, the case starts with one blunt belief—Toronto has long needed a true, blue-chip, all-world defenceman. Star rearguards don’t appear often. and barring rare chaos like a trade market opening. those kinds of defencemen are typically found in the draft. Toronto now has a chance to solve something that has felt missing.
The blue-line names are already on the board. Keaton Verhoeff and Chase Reid are right-handed defenders, while Carson Carels is a left-handed defender. All three project to be top-pairing stars. The idea is to trade down a few spots. add that high-upside defenceman. and also gain the extra value that comes from moving off the top pick.
The risk here is overthinking. Chayka has been burned at the draft for attempting something similar before. In 2019, the then-Arizona Coyotes GM traded the No. 14 pick and a second-rounder to Philly for the No. 11 pick. Chayka drafted defender Victor Soderstrom 11th-overall, touting him as a crucial addition to Arizona’s long-term core. Soderstrom never found his footing in the NHL, while Philly used the 14th-overall pick to draft Cam York.
This would be different—Chayka would be trading down, adding assets rather than trying to move up. The defensive prospects at the heart of the plan do seem more of a sure thing. but “sure” still isn’t certainty. If the deal goes wrong. Toronto could end up relinquishing the chance to add McKenna or Stenberg and watching those choices become the defining failure of the front office’s legacy.
The fifth route is the most dramatic: trade the No. 1 pick for an immediate-impact NHLer.
This is the nuclear option, and it depends on how Toronto defines its timeline. After a disappointing 2025-26. a level-headed path would be to draft a blue-chip prospect first overall and then rebuild the rest methodically ahead of a 2026-27 campaign that offers no guarantees. But that doesn’t erase the pressure around Auston Matthews.
Toronto is under pressure to convince Matthews to stay beyond the final two years of his contract. If Chayka and Co. believe they need results sooner, the idea is to trade the No. 1 pick for a current NHLer who can help right now. Whether it’s possible would depend heavily on who would be on the other end. and the list of names that would make such a trade worthwhile is described as short.
The concern is that the Leafs may not be able to afford the gamble. Sacrificing the long-term potential of McKenna or Stenberg for short-term success is described as an incredible risk given where Toronto sits right now. The other part of that equation is the rarity of the situation itself. The Maple Leafs had just an 8.5 per cent chance to win the draft lottery. and they’ve been handed an opportunity to add much-needed youth.
If Toronto’s sense is that this era of Leafs hockey might be winding to a close. then trading away the No. 1 pick—and giving up a chance to start turning the page—would require a home run. Without a deal that brings in a genuine all-world superstar and delivers a season of serious post-season noise. the move could age terribly. The fear is simple: as McKenna and Stenberg find their footing in the NHL. this trade becomes something that grows worse every season.
One month before the draft, the Maple Leafs don’t just have options. They have choices with different emotional endings. Take the “safer” winger and worry the other star wins. Pick Stenberg and fear McKenna becomes the one you missed. Draft someone else and watch a top talent land in Vancouver. Trade down for a defenceman and hope the risk of missing out doesn’t define the Chayka era. Or trade the pick and chase urgency—only to hope the short-term bet doesn’t come due as the long-term talent takes over elsewhere.
Toronto Maple Leafs 2026 draft lottery No. 1 pick Gavin McKenna Ivar Stenberg John Chayka Auston Matthews Wendel Clark Caleb Malhotra Keaton Verhoeff Chase Reid Carson Carels Victor Soderstrom Cam York June 26