Memorial Day weekend is on track for $200 million in 4-day grosses, led by Disney/Lucasfilm’s “The Mandalorian and Grogu” opening around $100 million, while Focus’ indie horror hit “Obsession” keeps surprising with strong holds and a rare midweek uptick.
For many families, Memorial Day weekend is usually about cookouts and movie matinees. For theaters, it’s something sharper: the weekly test of whether buzz can turn into checks at the box office.
“The Mandalorian and Grogu” is expected to kick things into gear with an estimated $100 million 4-day opening. after it made $33 million on its opening day. Disney’s own projections are slightly lower at $91–96 million. but either way the film is reaching the top end of pre-release projections and landing a few steps below the $103 million 4-day opening of “Solo: A Star Wars Story” in 2018.
Overall, industry estimates have the Memorial Day weekend set to clear $200 million in overall 4-day grosses, helped by strong holds from other May releases—most notably Focus’ indie horror smash hit “Obsession.”
That contrast—mega-budget launch energy on one side, relentless word-of-mouth on the other—shows up quickly in the numbers and the reception.
“The Mandalorian and Grogu” has largely positive early response. It carries an A- CinemaScore—matching the grade of all three “Star Wars” prequels—and it’s drawing Rotten Tomatoes scores of 63% from critics and 88% from audiences. Even with those good marks, the performance still sits below the track record “Star Wars” has built over several decades. Still. the film can likely post a theatrical profit against its $165 million production budget depending on how the next several weeks play out.
The money stream won’t stop at theaters. Merch and other ancillary revenue are expected to make “Mandalorian and Grogu” a very profitable play for Disney. including its theme parks. A relaunch of Disneyland and Disney Hollywood Studios’ “Star Wars: Galaxy’s Edge” sections has been timed to the release of the film. complete with a “Mandalorian”-themed overhaul of the Millennium Falcon simulator “Smuggler’s Run.”.
At the same time. “Obsession” is proving that a smaller production can still dominate by keeping audiences inside the theater longer than expected. The horror hit is heading into Memorial Day weekend having turned strong word-of-mouth into extremely strong weekday holds. One detail stands out: there was a rare instance of a Wednesday-to-Thursday increase.
The film, starring Inde Navarrette as a woman who is forced by a selfish wish to be disturbingly in love with her friend, is coming in with industry estimates of $23 million over the 4-day period. That includes a $19.9 million 3-day total, which is a 16% increase from its opening weekend.
“Obsession” was acquired at TIFF by Focus for $15 million. It’s on pace to earn $55 million domestically through Monday, and depending on how it holds against A24’s upcoming horror film “Backrooms,” it’s on pace to earn $100 million-plus in North America.
The same weekend shows life in other holdovers, too. Lionsgate’s “Michael” is set to pass $300 million domestic as it adds $23.5 million this holiday weekend. bringing its total to $317 million. Disney/20th Century’s “The Devil Wears Prada 2” is approaching $200 million domestic after adding $14.8 million over four days. Amazon MGM’s “The Sheep Detectives” is trying to salvage its theatrical run with strong word-of-mouth. adding an estimated $10 million for a $45 million domestic total through Monday.
All of it adds up to a weekend where the biggest franchise play is aiming for a blockbuster opening, while a smaller horror success keeps pulling audiences back—midweek strength included.
The Mandalorian and Grogu Grogu Memorial Day weekend box office Obsession Inde Navarrette CinemaScore A- Rotten Tomatoes 63% 88% Star Wars prequels Solo: A Star Wars Story Galaxy’s Edge Smuggler’s Run Michael The Devil Wears Prada 2 The Sheep Detectives
Idk why they keep saying $100M like it’s some surprise… people love that show.
So “Obsession” is like the only thing actually doing well and it somehow got a midweek bump?? That’s wild. I guess horror always wins when everyone else is just buying tickets for Star Wars.
Wait the article says Mandalorian made $33 million on opening day then “around $100 million opening”?? So is that like total or just 4 days? Also CinemaScore A- but Rotten Tomatoes critics 63%… that seems kinda bad? Like did they not like it or what.
Memorial Day weekend is always chaos anyway, so these numbers feel inflated. Like if it’s already at $200M, then theaters must not care about quality anymore. And the theme parks angle… Disney really just prints money off Grogu merch, I mean come on. I’m surprised “Solo” did better back in 2018 though, I thought that movie bombed or something.