Mahomes’ record extension reshapes the NFL QB pay ceiling

Patrick Mahomes’ record-setting contract extension with the Kansas City Chiefs pushes him to the top of the NFL quarterback market and breaks the unusual pricing distortion created by Dak Prescott’s 2024 deal. The ripple effects reach the $60 million AAV plate

The numbers didn’t just move. They reset the pecking order.

Patrick Mahomes’ recent record-setting extension with the Kansas City Chiefs has vaulted him to the top of the NFL quarterback market—his “rightful place” after years in the top tier of quarterback evaluation. He had spent the past seven years as a Tier 1 selection in The Athletic’s annual Quarterback Tiers produced by Mike Sando. and now his contract reflects that status in a way that changes the top end of how teams price elite play.

Mahomes takes over from Dallas Cowboys quarterback Dak Prescott. whose 2024 contract made him the first NFL player to reach $60 million in average annual value. Prescott signed that deal hours before the Cowboys’ 2024 season opener in Cleveland. and the figure blew past the previous high of $55 million. That prior ceiling had been set by Cincinnati Bengals quarterback Joe Burrow. Jacksonville Jaguars quarterback Trevor Lawrence. and Green Bay Packers quarterback Jordan Love.

Mahomes’ last extension came in 2020. when he signed a 10-year. $450 million deal that at the time gave him the league’s highest average salary. By 2025. he was making the same annually as Atlanta Falcons backup quarterback Kirk Cousins. and he trailed other high-paid quarterbacks such as Deshaun Watson of the Cleveland Browns. Kyler Murray of the Arizona Cardinals. and Tua Tagovailoa of the Miami Dolphins. Cousins. Murray. and Tagovailoa were all released in cap-saving moves this offseason. and Watson’s contract is described here as potentially the worst in NFL history.

With Mahomes now sitting at the top after his new deal. the market picture changes for everyone below him—especially at the level of $50 million AAV and higher. In 2026. the top of the quarterbacks market (players with at least $50 million AAV) looks different because the anchor contract has shifted.

The significance of Mahomes’ deal is tightly tied to the distortion Prescott created. Prescott sat atop the market by a considerable margin since he signed a four-year. $240 million extension with the Cowboys in September 2024. That $60 million in average annual value became the highest for any player in the league since that point. even as other star quarterbacks such as Buffalo Bills quarterback Josh Allen signed extensions.

Prescott’s leverage was the key. He was entering the final year of his previous extension. That contract stated the Cowboys could not place the franchise tag on Prescott. Without an extension. Prescott would have been headed for free agency after the 2024 season; the Cowboys’ other option would have been to trade him. The piece of leverage mattered because it meant Dallas could not wait for a “market” outcome—it had to make a decision with a clear countdown.

The result was a contract that priced Prescott well above everyone else. Prescott was making 9 percent more than the next highest-paid quarterback in AAV. He is described as “a very good quarterback. ” but the argument here is that he isn’t the best by a 9 percent margin. Even after his best NFL season—when he finished second in MVP voting in 2023—Prescott ranked ninth in Sando’s QB Tiers.

Now the best quarterback in the league is being paid as such. With Mahomes’ new contract, he is described as slotting in at $64 million in average annual value, surpassing Prescott.

Allen provides a useful comparison for how far the market had spread before Mahomes moved it again. Allen signed his extension with the Bills in March 2025: six years, $330 million, which set his AAV at $55 million. That placed him directly in line with Burrow, Love, and Lawrence. This offseason, the Los Angeles Rams’ Matthew Stafford signed a one-year extension that also came in at $55 million.

That $55 million plateau had become the de facto top of the market—largely because Prescott’s situation was so unusual that it pushed his contract far beyond the prevailing band. For nearly two years, the top of the quarterback market was effectively out of whack.

After Mahomes breaks through the $60 million threshold, the question becomes who can—or will—follow.

Before his contract extension, Mahomes ranked 13th in AAV among quarterbacks. After his extension, the Baltimore Ravens’ Lamar Jackson has two years remaining on his deal and is 11th in AAV. Jackson is named as a potential next candidate to break the $60 million threshold.

Other quarterbacks may also seek new terms now that the ceiling has visibly moved. Burrow is explicitly called out among those who could want a pay bump now that the market has shifted.

But the reshaping doesn’t end at the very top. Baker Mayfield is on the final year of his contract with the Tampa Bay Buccaneers. He is 16th in AAV at $33.33 million. The question that follows is how much money Mayfield could realistically chase—whether it brings him toward the Daniel Jones range. closer to $44 million to $45 million. and whether it’s possible for him to jump into the $50 million range.

For now, Mayfield’s stance is clear: he said he and the Bucs are “not anywhere close” to a deal.

The pipeline of younger quarterbacks carries its own timing and leverage. C.J. Stroud and Bryce Young are under contract through 2027 on the fifth-year options of their rookie deals. but they are eligible for extensions because they have accrued three seasons. The open question is what kind of deals they will be able to secure as the top end of the market rises again.

There’s also the matter of Super Bowl champion Sam Darnold and the Seattle Seahawks. Darnold is described as the 15th-highest paid QB in AAV. but he is making $10.5 million less than Jones is with the Indianapolis Colts. After last season’s run, the question becomes whether Darnold will look for more money.

The through-line here is simple: the top of the QB market was distorted because of one exceptional contract. With Mahomes’ extension, the top now makes more sense relative to the perceived quality at the position—and the pecking order may realign as teams respond.

For now, the situation is still moving. Mahomes has changed the ceiling, Prescott’s contract remains the benchmark that warped the market, and the next scramble is about who can reach the new high point—and who has to fight for a spot beneath it.

Patrick Mahomes Kansas City Chiefs Dak Prescott NFL quarterback market contract extension average annual value Lamar Jackson Josh Allen Joe Burrow Trevor Lawrence Jordan Love Matthew Stafford Baker Mayfield Daniel Jones C.J. Stroud Bryce Young Sam Darnold