Only two – Realtor.com’s new analysis finds that most pandemic-era luxury home gains have fizzled out. Only Minneapolis-St. Paul and Boise have surpassed their pandemic peaks, while major markets like the Bay Area have slid sharply before showing signs of a rebound.
The luxury housing boom didn’t end with a single headline. It unraveled room by room—at least in most places—after pandemic-era buying drove prices for high-end homes far beyond what many buyers thought they’d pay.
More than five years later, Realtor.com’s new report on luxury listings across the U.S. points to a stark split. Outside of two markets, pandemic appreciation at the top end hasn’t been outdone.
Only Minneapolis-St. Paul and Boise have seen recent prices beat their pandemic peaks. In Minneapolis-St. Paul, luxury homes are now sitting 5% above their pandemic high. In Boise, they’re 4% above. The contrast deepens when looking at how those gains formed during the boom: Minneapolis-St. Paul’s luxury prices ticked up by 17.6% during the home buying surge. while Boise’s jumped by 87%—and have not fallen back.
The report also shows how other luxury markets retained much of what they gained. even if they haven’t managed to push into fresh territory. Boston and Bend, Oregon each retained 89% of their previous run-ups and don’t yet appear to have peaked. Realtor.com attributes Boston’s continued advantage to wealthy buyers in financial services and life sciences. For Bend, it points to the pull of outdoor activities and lifestyle appeal.
Anthony Smith. Realtor.com’s senior economist. framed the uneven outcomes like a lesson in how different local economies absorb shocks. “The pandemic didn’t create the same luxury market everywhere. and the correction hasn’t played out the same everywhere either. ” Smith wrote. “Two markets have surpassed their pandemic peaks entirely. Five have fallen below where they started before COVID arrived. The ones still holding their gains have something the others don’t: real reasons for buyers to be there that have nothing to do with low mortgage rates and remote work.”.
The picture looks different where the boom collided with workforce changes. The Bay Area—centered on San Francisco—saw its luxury housing upswing erased and then some. The price threshold for luxury homes there retreated by nearly $700. 000 under its pre-pandemic baseline. making the Bay Area’s negative move the most dramatic across the tracked markets.
Realtor.com’s report ties that downturn to pandemic-era tech layoffs and an outflow of wealthy residents. But it also suggests the Bay may be turning back toward strength. The data indicates that affluent tech workers who have benefitted from the AI boom are cashing in—making bigger down payments for luxury homes. Realtor.com points to what it calls a “small but highly compensated AI workforce. ” describing demand on the high end as a force working against the broader luxury correction.
Even as some metros snap back unevenly, the luxury segment across the country has shifted in a measurable way. On a national level, listings over one million dollars made up 13.8% of the U.S. housing market in May 2026. That’s larger than the 7% to 9% share seen pre-pandemic.
The so-called “luxury threshold” hovered around $1.28 million in May, marking the price where the top 10% of the country’s most expensive homes begin. The month marked the 26th consecutive dip for the luxury threshold. The decline was 1.4%, smaller than the roughly 5% drop at the start of last year.
Taken together. the report reads like a map of where luxury demand has durable roots—and where it was built on short-lived momentum. In Minneapolis-St. Paul and Boise, the pandemic’s peak has been surpassed. In much of the rest of the country, the gains haven’t simply faded. They have. in some places. been wiped out. then tested against whatever new economic engines can replace the ones that ran out.
luxury housing home prices Realtor.com report Minneapolis-St. Paul Boise Boston Bend Oregon Bay Area San Francisco luxury threshold AI workforce mortgage rates
So Boise and Minneapolis are the only places it didnt crash?? Weird.
I don’t even get how “luxury” can be up 5% and 4% like that’s a victory. Meanwhile everyone I know in CA is still getting priced out, so yeah it sounds like the Bay Area is sliding. Just feels like they keep moving the goalposts.
Minneapolis sitting 5% above the pandemic high… okay but that’s probably only condos and “luxury” is just realtor talk for normal houses. Also Boise up 87%?? That sounds like a typo or they’re counting the same house twice or something. Pandemic buying drove it “room by room” lol what does that even mean.
This is exactly why buying now feels pointless. They say Boston and Bend kept 89% of their gains, which means people are still getting rich off it and everyone else is watching. I’m sure it’s “wealthy buyers” and “outdoor lifestyle” but it still comes down to basic greed. Also why do they only mention two markets “surpassed their peaks” like that’s supposed to comfort anybody?