Lowell now a Category 4 hurricane passing south of Hawaii | Honolulu Star-Advertiser

UPDATE: 5 p.m.

Lowell decreased slightly in strength this afternoon but it is expected to remain a major hurricane over the next several days as it continues to pass hundreds of miles south of Hawaii, according to the Central Pacific Hurricane Center

At 5 p.m., Lowell was about 440 miles south of Hilo, carrying maximum sustained winds of 155 mph and moving west at 10 mph. Lowell is expected to gradually decrease in forward speed over the next few days. Hurricane-force winds of 74 mph or more extend up to 35 miles from the center, while tropical storm-force winds of at least 39 mph extend out 90 miles. CPHC said a NOAA hurricane hunter aircraft collected the latest data on the powerful Category 4 hurricane.

Forecasters expect the storm to start making a turn to the north sometime over the weekend and move toward the western islands by early next week. However, they cautioned, “the details of Lowell’s long-range track and intensity forecasts are more uncertain than usual.”

Under the latest five-day forecast track, Lowell would be a strong Category 3 storm with 125 mph sustained winds by Monday afternoon and centered just over 300 miles southwest of Lihue.

“Near the end of the forecast period, Lowell should start experiencing increasing shear caused by the upper-level trough, and a more-pronounced weakening may begin around day 5,” CPHC forecasters said. “There remains high confidence that Lowell will remain a major hurricane through the weekend.”

“It is too soon to determine potential impacts in the Hawaiian Islands,” they said this afternoon. “Interests in Hawaii should continue to closely monitor the progress of Lowell through this upcoming weekend. This is a good time for all residents to ensure they have their hurricane plan and supply kit in place.”

Honolulu city officials encouraged residents to continue normal activities while monitoring the forecast through the weekend. “The additional time before any potential impacts gives everyone an opportunity to make sure their hurricane plan is in place and their emergency supply kit is ready, officials said in a news release.

“There is no cause for alarm right now, and a lot can change with this storm over the next couple of days,” Mayor Rick Blangiardi said. “This is about being aware and being ready. Pay attention to the forecast, make sure you have what you need, and use the time we have now to prepare. We don’t know exactly where Lowell is going to go, but it is always better to be ready than to find yourself scrambling at the last minute.”

The National Weather Service has issued a wind advisory for all islands from the Big Island to Oahu through 6 a.m. Friday. Forecasters expect east winds of 25 to 35 mph with gusts up to 55 mph for Maui County and Hawaii island, and 20 to 30 mph with gusts up to 50 mph for Oahu.

“Winds this strong can tear off shingles, knock down tree branches, blow away tents and awnings and make it difficult to steer, especially for drivers of high profile vehicles,” the advisory says. “Watch out for falling tree branches when walking or driving. Make sure tents and awnings are secure or take them down. Be prepared for power outages.”

A high surf advisory covers south and southeast shores for all islands through 6 p.m. Thursday. The NWS predicts large breaking waves of 7 to 10 feet and strong currents that will make swimming dangerous.

Swells from Lowell are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions for some Hawaii shores during the next several days, forecasters said, adding that depending on the exact track of the storm, these swells are likely to increase early next week.

Farther east, Hurricane Karina has weakened slightly but remained a Category 4 hurricane.

At about 5 p.m., Karina was about 1,325 miles east of Hilo, with maximum sustained winds of 130 mph and moving west-northwest at 10 mph. Karina is expected to continue moving west-northwestward over the next few days. Hurricane force winds extend up to 35 miles from the center, while tropical storm-force winds extend up to 125 miles.

It is expected to be a post-tropical cyclone with 40 mph winds by Monday hundreds of miles northeast of Hilo and moving away from the island.

Meanwhile, Marie has become a hurricane off the coast of Mexico and continues to move farther away from land. At 5 p.m., Marie was about 375 miles southwest of the southern tip of Baja California, carrying maximum sustained winds of 80 mph and moving west-northwest at 10 mph.

11 a.m.

Hurricane Lowell rapidly intensified into a Category 5 hurricane today, packing maximum sustained winds of 160 mph as it tracks west at 10 mph, about 445 miles south of Hilo.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 35 miles from Lowell’s center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 90 miles.

The Central Pacific Hurricane Center confirmed the compact storm reached Category 5 status this morning.

While Lowell is expected to remain a major hurricane over the next several days, forecasters project its forward speed will slow as it passes south of the Hawaiian Islands before making a sharp turn to the north or north-northeast late this weekend, the CPHC said in an advisory.

“A cutoff mid- to upper-level low is forecast to drop southwestward from the North Pacific and weaken the steering ridge this weekend,” CPHC forecasters said.

“Then, a sharp turn toward the north or north-northeast is forecast at days 4-5 while Lowell interacts with this upper-level feature. There is large spread in the various models and ensemble solutions regarding how sharp of a turn occurs, but … the overall trend has been an eastward shift in the long-range track envelope.

“Interests in the Hawaiian Islands should continue to closely monitor the progress of Hurricane Lowell.”

Although no coastal watches or warnings are currently in effect for land areas, swells generated by Lowell are spreading northward and are expected to produce life-threatening surf and rip currents across Hawaiian shores.

Farther east in the Pacific, Hurricane Karina has weakened slightly to a Category 4 storm with 140 mph winds about 1,390 miles east of Hilo while moving west-northwest at 12 mph.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 35 miles from Karina’s center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 125 miles.

Tropical Storm Marie, meanwhile, was 380 miles south-southwest off of the southern tip of Baja California with 70 mph winds, heading northwest at 12 mph, and is expected to reach hurricane strength later today.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 35 miles from Marie’s center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 125 miles.

Honolulu city officials continue to stress the need for residents to prepare and monitor the storm’s progress as a precaution.

They said late this morning that while the forecast has Lowell continuing generally westward, well south of the Hawaiian Islands, the powerful hurricane is expected to make a sharp turn toward the north or north-northeast late this weekend into early next week.

“Residents should prepare now, but there is no reason to panic or rush to stores. Having several days of advance notice provides an opportunity to methodically check emergency supplies, address any gaps in family plans and continue monitoring the forecast.”

They stressed that “considerable uncertainty remains about how sharp that turn will be and exactly where Lowell will track,” but added that any potential significant impacts to the Hawaiian Islands would not occur until early next week.

“This is an extremely powerful hurricane, and we are watching it very closely,” Mayor Rick Blangiardi said in a news release.

“We don’t know yet exactly where Lowell is going to turn or what impacts it could eventually bring to Hawaiʻi. What we do know is that we have time right now, and we need to use it. I’m asking everyone on Oʻahu to stay vigilant, follow the forecast, and make sure you and your family are prepared. Don’t wait until the weekend. Take advantage of these extra days and get ready now.”

Officials urged residents in the next few days to:

>> Check and replenish emergency food, water, medications and other supplies.

>> Make sure flashlights, batteries, portable chargers and radios are working.

>> Fill vehicles with fuel and make sure backup generators are ready to operate safely.

>> Secure or make plans to secure outdoor furniture and other loose items.

>> Review family emergency and communication plans.

>> Check on kupuna, neighbors and others who may need assistance preparing.

>> Sign up for HNL Alert to receive emergency information from the City.

>> Continue monitoring official forecasts from the National Weather Service and Central Pacific Hurricane Center.

EARLIER COVERAGE

Hurricane Lowell continues to rapidly intensify in the Central Pacific, maintaining its status as a Category 4 major hurricane as it tracks south of the Hawaiian Islands, weather officials said.

At 5 a.m. today, Lowell was about 455 miles south-southeast of Hilo, packing maximum sustained winds of 155 mph with higher gusts and moving west at 10 mph, according to the Central Pacific Hurricane Center. Hurricane-force winds extend up to 35 miles from the center, and tropical-storm-force winds reach up to 90 miles.

“Further strengthening is possible, and Lowell could become a Category 5 hurricane later today or tonight,” forecasters said in an advisory.

Weather officials expect Lowell to continue on its westward track, gradually decreasing in speed, over the next few days.

However, forecasters are still unsure where Lowell will head later this week. A high-altitude atmospheric shift is expected to disrupt the currents currently pushing the storm, causing it to lose speed and make a sharp turn to the north early Sunday, well south of the islands.

Computer prediction models continue to show widely different paths for this northern turn, prompting officials to advise residents to keep a close eye on future updates.

The National Weather Service in Honolulu issued a wind advisory for portions of Kahoolawe, Lanai, Maui, Molokai and the Big Island, effective from noon today to 6 a.m. Friday. East winds of 25 to 35 mph with gusts up to 55 mph are expected, with the strongest winds occurring through passes, higher terrain, and central valleys.

“Winds this strong can tear off shingles, knock down tree branches, blow away tents and awnings and make it difficult to steer, especially for drivers of high profile vehicles,” the NWS warned.

A high surf advisory for the southeast shores of Hawaii island is in effect until 6 a.m. Thursday, with waves rising to 7 to 10 feet today, according to the advisory. “Additionally, a moderate long period south swell filled in last night and will produce elevated surf along southern exposures today,” forecasters said.

Lowell “swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions” forecasters said.

A tropical storm warning is in effect through Sunday for Hawaiian offshore waters beyond 40 nautical miles out to 240 nautical miles including the portion of the Papahanaumokuakea Marine National Monument east of French Frigate Shoals.

A small craft advisory is also in effect for all Hawaiian coastal waters until 6 a.m. Friday due to strong tradewinds and rough seas reaching up to 15 feet in windier channels.

Farther east, Hurricane Karina remains a powerful Category 4 storm with 145 mph sustained winds, about 1,455 miles east of Hilo and moving west-northwest at 10 mph as of 5 a.m.

Karina is expected to slowly weaken over the next several days as it tracks west-northwestward away from the state, according to the National Hurricane Center in Miami.

Hurricane-force winds extend up to 35 miles from Karina’s center and tropical storm-force winds extend outward up to 125 miles.

Meanwhile, as of 5 a.m., Tropical Storm Marie is about 415 miles south-southwest of the southern tip of Baja California, packing maximum sustained winds of 70 mph and moving northwest near 9 mph. Marie is forecast to become a hurricane later today, according to the NHC.

For Kauai through Maui counties, today will be partly sunny and windy with highs from 86 to 91 degrees, according to the National Weather Service in Honolulu. Windward and mauka areas can expect occasional morning showers turning to scattered afternoon showers, while leeward areas see scattered morning showers followed by isolated afternoon rain. Trades will blow at 15 to 30 mph. Tonight will bring partly cloudy and windy conditions with lows of 73 to 78 degrees and wind gusts up to 50 mph.

For the Big Island, today will bring mostly cloudy conditions windward with occasional showers, while leeward areas stay mostly sunny with isolated afternoon showers. Winds will be northeast at 15 to 25 mph with highs from 87 to 92 degrees. Tonight will be mostly cloudy windward with numerous showers, and partly cloudy leeward with isolated evening showers, with east winds at 15 to 25 mph and lows from 72 to 77 degrees.