A New York Times/Siena poll shows Texas Attorney General Ken Paxton and Democratic state legislator James Talarico tied among likely voters at 47 percent each—setting up a high-stakes Senate race where character perceptions may be the deciding factor. A Talari
When the numbers are this close in Texas. the outcome often feels less like a verdict on policy and more like a stress test of trust. In a race that has centered on Ken Paxton’s record and James Talarico’s personal story. two new voter surveys released within the past month have the candidates dead even.
A Tuesday New York Times and Siena University poll put Paxton and Talarico each at 47 percent among likely voters. For Talarico—an incumbent state legislator—winning would mark the first statewide election victory for Democrats in Texas since 1994.
The poll was conducted among 656 likely voters from June 19 to June 27, with a sampling error of 4.5 percentage points. Even with that statistical cushion, the message is stark: this looks like a tie that could hinge on small shifts as voters decide.
What separates the candidates in the survey’s framing is character—and how a large share of likely voters see each man. The poll suggests Talarico’s support is largely tied to voters viewing him as having good character. He is a former public school teacher and is currently training to become a minister.
Paxton’s story, by contrast, is defined by major political and legal turmoil. He was indicted for securities fraud, and he was impeached as Texas attorney general by the Republican-dominated Texas state House. The Republican-majority Texas state Senate, however, acquitted him of all 16 articles of impeachment.
The survey also paints Paxton as tied to President Trump’s political orbit. He is described as a Trump loyalist, and the polling points to a potential link between Paxton and voters’ frustration over President Trump’s mishandling of the economy amid a widespread struggle with affordability.
Behind the numbers is the way the race was shaped inside the Republican primary. Many Senate Republicans preferred incumbent John Cornyn, but Trump endorsed Paxton late in that primary race. On the Democratic side. Talarico has been positioned as a candidate without the Washington baggage that can weigh on down-ballot races.
Earlier this year. coverage of the race emphasized that Talarico. as described. is “unsullied by doings in Washington. ” with his faith-based populism framed as having impressed Joe Rogan and Barack Obama while still showing strength in parts of the Democratic Party that have been “hemorrhaging support. ” as Tim Murphy wrote in March.
For Democrats, the stakes aren’t theoretical. This November. Democrats are seeking to flip four Republican seats while defending all of their seats to win a Senate majority. In that context. Paxton versus Talarico isn’t just another contest on the map—it’s a test of whether Democrats can reverse Texas’s recent statewide history and whether Paxton’s combination of courtroom and political conflict can survive a late campaign built around trust.
Right now, the race sits on a knife edge: 47 percent apiece, with character perceptions, legal controversy, party loyalty, and economic frustration all pressing at the same time.
Ken Paxton James Talarico Texas Senate race New York Times Siena poll likely voters John Cornyn impeachment securities fraud Donald Trump affordability Democratic gains