It’s always fun to joke about air yards.
I do it all the time with my Rotoworld Football Show cohosts in desperately trying to make a case that a player is due for (positive or negative) regression based on his air yards accumulation from the prior week or the past few outings. And it always sounds like one long comedy bit: This player saw so many air yards that could have been converted into actual, real-life receiving yards bro, I swear bro, trust me on this.
Air yards, whether we like it or not — and most fantasy folks definitely do not like it — are a good measure of a pass catcher’s opportunity and the type of passing volume in a given offense. That air yards don’t always translate into real, edible receiving yards is just part of our frustrating little game. We make small bets here and there and hope things break right from week to week and prove our process correct more often than not. It’s not any more complicated than that, even if we desperately want it to be.
Over the past few seasons I have used this space to talk mostly about guys with exceptionally high or low touchdown rates. Air yards has mostly been a side issue in the Regression Files. That will change in 2026: I want Regression Files to be your weekly go-to for (freely available) air yards data and what it means for your various fantasy football teams.
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Thanks to my friend and fellow football analytics nerd Brad Beatson, we have a more organized way of not only tracking air yards data, but a measure of which pass catchers are seeing accurate downfield targets and which guys are not. The latter phenomenon is known in nerdy football circles as Prayer Yards, or inaccurate passes that technically award a bunch of air yards to a given receiver who rarely has a chance of converting those air yards into real yards as the football sails over their head or out of bounds or wherever else. You end up begging any deity that will listen for some of those air yards to turn into yards that mean something for your fantasy squad.
This isn’t to say Prayer Yards are meaningless; they’re not. A player’s ability to get open downfield and command consistent deep targets can lead to valuable (if high variance) offensive roles. Prayer Yards are Prayer Yards until they’re not.
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Prayer Yards Warriors
Before we get into Week 1 and how 2025 air yards regression might play into your opening week decision making, let’s take a look at last year’s Prayer Yards leaders: Players who would regularly be among the league leaders in air yards thanks to a bunch of wonky downfield heaves from their terrible quarterbacks.
Justin Jefferson (MIN)
Probably you don’t need me to tell you Jefferson ran ice cold in 2025 thanks (mostly) to JJ McCarthy being abysmal in every way. Jefferson, flustered and agitated throughout the 2025 season, saw the lowest catchable target rate of his NFL career, leading to a boatload of prayer yards that ended up not meaning much.
That Kyler Murray is a slightly better deep ball passer than McCarthy should mean natural (positive) regression for Jefferson’s air yards profile in 2026. He has been among the league leaders in air yards conversion rate during stretches of his career, after all. I wrote a while back about why the pass-heavy nature of Kevin O’Connell’s red zone offense should translate into more touchdown opportunities for Jefferson too.
If the regression doesn’t hit for JJ in Week 1 against Green Bay, I’m confident it will soon after.
Emeka Egbuka (TB)
Baker Mayfield in 2024 converted a rock-solid 56 percent of his air yards into passing yards. That rate collapsed into the low 40s during his down 2025 campaign in Tampa. That, to put it mildly, had an impact on every Bucs pass catcher, including Egbuka, who wasn’t really a fantasy option for the final couple months of the 2025 regular season.
Egbuka’s 37 percent air yards conversion rate was among the lowest in the NFL among wideouts who had at least 40 targets. Egbuka was 104th out of 110 qualifying wideouts in ESPN’s open score, which measures how much separation a pass catcher gets. Xavier Legette and Adam Thielen were among the receivers with a higher open score than Egbuka.
Maybe a healthy Mayfield can deliver more accurate intermediate and downfield balls to Egbuka. Hopefully the second-year wideout is recovered from his summertime injury in time to bump himself from the Prayer Yards list in Week 1 against the Bengals.
Adonai Mitchell (NYJ)
Mitchell during his eight games with the Jets in 2025 was an air yards eater the likes of which we’ve rarely seen. Only fellow air yards maven Michael Wilson had more air yards than Mitchell from Week 11 to Week 18. Add to that a hefty 25 percent targets per route run rate and you have an undeniably interesting fantasy option in the speedy Mitchell.
Last season can be thrown out if only because the Jets’ QB situation was so bleak. And though Geno Smith was miserable last season in Vegas, you don’t have to go that far back to find an accurate passer: In 2024 Geno was fourth among all quarterbacks in on-target rate and third in catchable ball rate. He was top-10 in both categories two seasons ago. Geno, by all accounts, has looked sharp this offseason. I think he represents a massive upgrade for Mitchell and the rest of the New York pass catchers.
It’s just the kind of change that might eventually knock Mitchell off the Prayer Yards leader list and make him an exciting, volatile weekly option in 12-team formats.
Brian Thomas Jr. (JAC)
Trevor Lawrence has never been an accurate downfield thrower. That, along with apparent chemistry issues he has with BTJ, was quite bad for the wideout’s fantasy prospects in 2025. Lawrence for his part converted 48 percent of his air yards into passing yards, a rate that fell outside the top-20 QBs and fell short of such luminaries such as Spencer Rattler and Marcus Mariota.
Only the Cowboys and Rams had more total team air yards than the Jags in 2025. That, to put it simply, is a feature of Liam Coen’s offense. Even so, I’m bearish on BTJ as a reliable weekly fantasy play in 12-team leagues. I struggle to see how he can get off the dreaded Prayer Yards list.
Rome Odunze (CHI)
The same goes for Odunze, another Prayer Yards warrior who regularly watches football sail over his head with no defenders nearby. I wrote this offseason about Caleb Williams’ immense accuracy struggles, especially on downfield shots. I suppose that could change with another year in Ben Johnson’s system. If it doesn’t, I’d suspect Odunze will remain a Prayer Yards guy in 2026.
Touchdown Regression Bros
Matthew Stafford (LAR)
You know all about it by now. Stafford benefited from a whole lot of positive TD regression last year and threw a touchdown on 7.7 percent of his attempts. That’s just a smidge above his career touchdown rate of 4.8 percent. He’s probably going to remain a startable option in 12-team formats but a TD rate closer to 5.5 or 6 percent would limit Stafford’s 2026 ceiling outcomes. He should be OK for Week 1 in Australia against the Niners.
Patrick Mahomes (KC)
The gimpy Midhomes heads into 2026 after posting a lowly 4.4 percent TD rate in 2025. Here’s the thing though: That might be the new normal for latter-day Mahomes. The guy hasn’t had a touchdown rate above 4.5 percent since 2022. We are now eight years removed from his 50-touchdown campaign. Andy Reid’s offense is always among the NFL’s most pass heavy in the red zone, and particularly inside the ten. That could help Mahomes bounce back, if only a bit. He shouldn’t be started in 12-team leagues against Denver in Week 1 though.
Bo Nix (DEN)
Nix in 2025 threw a touchdown on 4.1 percent of his attempts and proved extraordinarily inefficient near the goal line, completing just 15 of his 38 inside-the-ten attempts for nine touchdowns. Nix, who had a 5.1 percent TD rate in 2024, should see some good regression this season in a Denver offense that last year ranked sixth in total team air yards. I’d say Nix is a superflex-only option in Week 1 against Kansas City.
Tyler Shough (NO)
Shough kinda got away with it through most of the second half of the 2025 season thanks to a bunch of rushing yards and rushing scores. That helps. His touchdown rate was just 3.1 percent, lower than anyone but Cam Ward. I wrote recently about Kellen Moore running one of the run-heaviest offenses inside the twenty; that led to a mere three inside-the-ten pass attempts for Shough over his nine starts. The Saints were 13th in total team air yards over Shough’s nine starts, so it’s a mixed bag in determining whether Shough is due for serious TD regression. I’d lean yes, and I think his Week 1 matchup against Detroit presents a good scoring environment that should make him startable in 12-team formats. No team allowed more air yards than the Lions in 2025.
Air Yards Matchups: The Good And The Bad
This is the part where we look at NFL games that could (should) feature a glut of air yards, and therefore, potentially, lots of passing yards. Two defenses that give up a lot of air yards (for various reasons) can create fantastic scoring conditions, as you might have guessed. We’ll start this season by using 2025 air yards data. By Week 4, we’ll shift to current season data.
Rams vs. 49ers: Sean McVay’s defense allowed the sixth most air yards in 2025 while Kyle Shanahan’s team gave up the 11th most. Assuming both teams are able to stay awake in Australia, this game could have more fantasy juice than you think.
Detroit Lions vs. New Orleans Saints: The Lions, as mentioned above, gave up by far the most total team air yards per game in 2025. Lions opponents averaged almost 309 air yards per game last season, with several approaching 500 air yards in a single game. The Saints, meanwhile, gave up the seventh fewest air yards in 2025.
Colts vs. Ravens: This game could be quite fun. Both teams were top-three in air yards allowed last season and receiving yards given up per game. This is a matchup to attack. It could make secondary options like Ja’Kobi Lane, Keenan Allen, and Josh Downs interesting for 12-team formats.
Texans vs. Bills: Houston ranked 12th last year in air yards allowed after a late-season spate of pass-heavy attacks against the Texans. The Bills, meanwhile, gave up the fewest air yards per game and the fourth fewest receiving yards. Start your Bills, I suppose, but be careful with any Texan not named Nico Collins.