JUST IN: Nate Silver Reveals His Updated Midterm Election Forecast — Rates Texas as LEAN D

Elections prognosticator Nate Silver released his forecast model for the November midterms on Tuesday and made the bold prediction the Texas Senate seat would flip blue.

The incumbent Republican, Sen. John Cornyn (R-TX), lost a viciously contentious primary to Texas Attorney General Ken Paxton, who scored President Donald Trump’s endorsement but is widely viewed as a weaker candidate in the general election due to a series of scandals, lawsuits, and controversies — not to mention a messy and contentious divorce.

The Democratic nominee, State Rep. James Talarico (D), has had a slight lead in a series of recent polls. Past Democrats running statewide in the Lone Star State like former Rep. Beto O’Rourke (D-TX) have polled better than they performed on Election Day but numerous commentators have noted Paxton’s flaws as a candidate and the downward drag of Trump and the GOP’s poor polling on key issues like immigration and the economy to predict that Talarico may in fact have a chance.

Add Silver to the list of those saying the Lone Star State could in fact flip blue.

In his 2026 midterm forecast model — which he has bequeathed the moniker “FLIPR” — Silver rates Texas as “Lean D.”

In his write up, Silver acknowledged “Democrats certainly have plenty of pr0blems,” including a “fundraising crisis” and internecine battles between the party’s establishment and the more progressive wing of the party, but still viewed Talarico’s campaign as one of his top picks to flip blue, rating it as a 63% chance of pickup.

Screenshot via natesilver.net.

Silver ranked only two other states’ chances of flipping blue higher than Texas, North Carolina, where former Gov. Roy Cooper (D) is running against former chair of the RNC and North Carolina GOP Michael Whatley to follow retiring Sen. Thom Tillis (R-NC), and Maine, where Troy Jackson is challenging Sen. Susan Collins (R-ME).

Cooper had a whopping 90% chance of defeating Whatley, according to Silver’s prediction; Jackson was rated with a 69% chance of replacing Collins.

Silver’s predictions for the overall majority control of the House and Senate were similarly rosy for Democrats, giving them a 57.3% chance of regaining control of the Senate and a whopping 86.6% for the House.

Screenshot via natesilver.net.

This article has been updated with additional information.

The post JUST IN: Nate Silver Reveals His Updated Midterm Election Forecast — Rates Texas as LEAN D first appeared on Mediaite.