Japan upset – With the 2026 FIFA World Cup Group F featuring Japan, the Netherlands, Sweden and Tunisia, attention centers on whether Japan can turn cohesion into momentum—starting with an opener against a Netherlands side that rarely gives up.
For Group F, the first match doesn’t feel like a box to check—it feels like a spark. Mexico and South Africa’s opening of the 2026 FIFA World Cup is close enough to sense the pressure. and with it comes the group-stage question fans always ask: which teams look like main characters. and which ones are just there to set the stage?.
Group F is one of the more intriguing quartets in the expanded 48-team field. All four teams believe they belong at the World Cup and also believe they can reach the knockout rounds as a top finisher.
The Netherlands enter with a reputation that comes with history and habit. They are the strongest nation to never hoist the World Cup, and while they aren’t viewed as a heavy favorite to contend for the title in 2026, the Oranje remain a dark horse capable of making a run.
Japan, though, is where the prediction gets dangerous. The argument for Japan isn’t built on a single standout star, but on how the pieces fit. One name jumps out—Kaoru Mitoma—but he didn’t make the cut due to injury. leaving the lineup without one of the more recognizable sparks. Even so. the team’s cohesion is framed as one of the most dangerous things in the tournament: not flashy on paper. but capable of turning moments into results.
On paper, a Netherlands win over Japan seems like a simple conclusion. The recent international results don’t make it simple at all. The Netherlands have posted a 3-2 win vs. Brazil, a 2-0 win vs. Ghana, a 3-0 win vs. Bolivia, and they’ve also come away with 1-0 wins vs. Scotland, 1-0 wins vs. England, and 1-0 wins vs. Iceland.
Japan’s style, by contrast, is described as straight-to-the-point: they win games. Manager Hajime Moriyasu is credited with turning hard circumstances into momentum—“gravel into lemonade,” the phrasing goes—at times, and that approach is exactly why Group F feels like it could swing quickly.
Alexander Isak is set up as the group’s player to watch. He plays for Sweden and is listed with Liverpool, where he arrived after the club reportedly paid Newcastle around $170 million. The price mattered: it broke the British transfer fee record. But Isak’s first campaign at Liverpool didn’t match the tag. Injuries limited him to three goals in 14 games.
Still, the confidence going into the tournament is tied to his physical status. After suffering a broken ankle in December, Isak feels like he’s in strong condition heading into the World Cup. If Sweden gets the version of Isak that Liverpool is believed to see—the $170 million player—then Sweden has a realistic path to surprise.
The group’s most delicate tension is also the one fans can feel. Losing Mitoma is treated as a real blow for Japan. But Japan’s response is framed as the point: when one cog breaks, they don’t unravel. They reload, cover for one another, and strike back stronger.
For the opener, the prediction goes against the easy story. Japan is tipped to “upset” the Netherlands in the group opener, setting the tone for a high-voltage group. The outlook keeps moving in that same direction: Japan is forecast to qualify. along with the Netherlands and Sweden. sending three teams from Group F into the Round of 32.
Tunisia’s fate is acknowledged, but not romanticized. Sorry, Tunisia is the blunt line—expected to fit the mold of one of the best fourth-place teams at the World Cup rather than a group winner or knockout qualifier from the top two.
2026 FIFA World Cup Group F Japan Netherlands Sweden Tunisia Kaoru Mitoma Hajime Moriyasu Alexander Isak Liverpool Round of 32