IL chaos forces fantasy managers to gamble on upside

fantasy baseball – Injuries are thinning fantasy rosters fast, with Aaron Judge sidelined by a rib stress fracture and multiple top-15 ADP players still on the IL. As managers weigh what to wait on—Tarik Skubal’s quick-looking bullpen return, Austin Riley’s slump, Vinnie Pasquan

The weekend it became official, fantasy managers didn’t just lose players—they lost certainty.

Aaron Judge was placed on the IL over the weekend after suffering a stress fracture in his rib. He’ll be reevaluated in four to six weeks. and the message is already clear on group chats and waiver wires: this isn’t a day-to-day inconvenience. It’s going to reshape lineups, force depth to matter, and test whether patience still pays.

Judge isn’t alone. Tarik Skubal. Elly De La Cruz. Garrett Crochet. and Cal Raleigh are among the players with a composite ADP inside the top 15 who are currently sidelined on the IL. And just when managers think they’ve planned for the worst, Ronald Acuña Jr. limped off the field Tuesday with left hamstring tightness.

That’s the pressure point this season keeps circling back to—injuries hitting right when everyone needs consistency most. In a year where depth and patience are being measured like a stopwatch, these are the questions fantasy managers are asking, in real time.

How healthy is Tarik Skubal?

Skubal is the one name in this trouble stretch that looks like it might return sooner than expected.

He impressed during a recent rehab start just one month after undergoing elbow surgery. He’s scheduled to throw a bullpen session Wednesday and is (remarkably) tentatively set to return to the majors Friday or Saturday. The NanoNeedle Scope technology has cut the return time from bone-chip injuries in half.

During his rehab start in High A, Skubal produced 16 whiffs and topped out at 99 mph. The outing was:
5 IP, 2 H, 0 ER, 6 BB, 5 K, 54 pitches.

It remains to be seen whether Skubal is 100% after the new procedure, but fantasy managers will be watching Wednesday’s bullpen session like it’s a playoff game. The clock is moving.

Will Austin Riley ever start hitting?

Riley has been one of the hardest stumbles for managers who targeted him as a bounce-back.

He entered Tuesday with a career-low 80 wRC+ and ranked as the No. 22 fantasy third baseman despite ostensibly staying healthy. The Braves’ offense has otherwise rebounded hugely in 2026—third highest wRC+ in MLB—but Riley has slid to seventh in Atlanta’s order. and he’s been dropped by some fantasy managers in shallow leagues.

The surface numbers don’t match the injury-free expectation. Riley has struck out more while not hitting the ball quite as hard this season. His .266 BABIP and 10.8 HR/FB% are both career lows and well below his normal marks.

His track record is the argument for waiting. The frustration is that waiting is starting to feel like a luxury when depth is already strained.

Where’s Vinnie Pasquantino’s power?

Pasquantino has been another high-profile disappointment, drafted as the No. 10 first baseman and inside the top 75 overall.

This season, he’s produced negative fantasy value and ranks as the No. 43 first baseman. The disappointment lands harder because expectations were inflated by the move at Kauffman Stadium, where fences were adjusted for 2026.

Pasquantino entered Tuesday with a 57 wRC+ at home compared to 104 on the road, and he has just two homers in Kansas City this year. His fly-ball percentage ranks 11th on the season at 49.7, but his 6.3 HR/FB% sits toward the bottom among all qualified hitters.

He isn’t even on pace for last season’s 32-homer production, despite hitting the most fly balls of his career and playing in a home park with shorter outfield walls.

The concerns are obvious—his declining bat speed is a problem—but the door isn’t shut. With his current price, Pasquantino is being framed as a buy-low candidate.

Can Jake Bauers keep this up?

Bauers was treated like an afterthought in fantasy drafts. Yet as Tuesday approached, he had climbed into real consideration—entering Tuesday as a top-20 fantasy player this season.

His position in fantasy conversation is partly explained by what he’s doing when the ball is put in play. His Statcast page looks legit, including a hard-hit rate of 54.1 in the top 3% of the league and a manageable K% of 22.1.

He’s hitting in the middle of a Milwaukee lineup that leads baseball in runs scored per game. He’s multi-eligible and doesn’t need to be platooned.

On pace, Bauers is projected to hit .286-96-30-109-13.

But the season doesn’t let anyone stay comfortable. Bauers is 30 years old, and he entered the year with almost 2,000 career plate appearances of poor results (.211/.307/.365). Over 2018–2025, he posted a negative fWAR and ranked No. 277 among hitters in wRC+ (87).

He’s currently performing like an elite hitter for the first one-third of the season in 2026, which is the surprise. Whether it holds is where fantasy managers split: those who try to sell high before regression shows up, and those playing house money while they can.

Is Payton Tolle already Boston’s ace?

Not much has gone right for the Red Sox this season. Tolle’s emergence has been the bright spot.

After impressing in spring training and Triple A, the young lefty entered Tuesday’s start in Tampa Bay with a 2.28 ERA and a 0.97 WHIP. The rookie likely won’t hold those exact numbers, but regression could be mild given his 20.3 K-BB%—which would rank 12th among qualified starters.

His four-seam fastball is where the confidence is concentrated. It produced the highest swinging-strike rate in the minors last season and has been dominant in the majors this year, with hitters held to the league’s lowest hard-hit percentage.

Red Seat Podcast shared a breakdown of his 4-seamer production in MLB among pitchers with 300+ four-seamers thrown: BAA .138 (3rd), SLG .200 (1st), wOBA .217 (1st), whiff 29.5% (7th), hard-hit 22.4% (1st).

Crochet still matters in Boston’s rotation picture—he’s described as the best starter when healthy—but he looked compromised in 2026 and suffered a setback while on the IL. Connelly Early was called up sooner while Sonny Gray (4.09) and Ranger Suarez (3.75) have been solid. Still, Tolle (3.45) has been the superior pitcher.

He threw 108 innings last season, so the worry is workload in a season where every start becomes a decision, not just a box score. Even with that, Tolle has emerged as Boston’s ace and one of the best waiver-wire adds.

How chaotic are fantasy closers?

Relief roles have become the most volatile place in fantasy.

Alex Lange was this week’s biggest free-agent prize in NFBC Main Event leagues, positioned as the replacement for a struggling Lucas Erceg as the Royals’ closer. Fantasy managers remain desperate for saves in a season filled with chaos.

Only five relievers recorded more than one save over the last week. Over the last month, 75 different relief pitchers have closed out games.

The instability is easy to see in specific moments: the Cubs haven’t had a save since May 14. Jordan Romano has recorded 66.7% of the Angels’ saves despite being released in April.

In Milwaukee, Abner Uribe was ostensibly pushed out of the closer role because of an obscene gesture. Trevor Megill’s health status is now in question after he was unavailable Monday. Meanwhile, Joel Kuhnel is suddenly throwing 5 mph harder after being traded to the Brewers.

The Giants remain a stay-away situation. Edwin Díaz is making encouraging progress and is worth stashing in this economy.

Which hitter is due for regression?

Manny Machado’s slow start has been the kind of slump that makes managers double-check their instincts—because the gap between expected and actual results feels too large to ignore.

Machado entered Tuesday with a .167 BABIP, 35 points lower than the next worst mark among 161 qualified hitters. His career hit rate is .295, and his BB% (10.3) is a career high.

He owns the fourth biggest difference between batting average and expected batting average in MLB. He also ranks toward the bottom of the league in batting average with runners in scoring position (.156).

The decline phase looks real, and he’s 33 years old. Still, it’s unlikely he’s simply forgotten how to hit. His misfortune has a clear shape, and managers will watch the moment it loosens.

Which pitcher is due for regression?

Andrés Muñoz entered Tuesday with a 5.18 ERA, ranking 156 out of 186 qualified relievers. Yet his 2.52 SIERA sits 11th.

His velocity and stuff have remained intact. His K-BB% is 25.0, improved compared to last season’s 21.7. In 2026, his CSW% is 35.2, ranking third in MLB.

His LOB% is 66.9 and his HR/FB% is 19.0—both numbers that are expected to normalize. The closing role in Seattle hasn’t slipped, and the bad results haven’t changed the trust.

Jeff Hoffman is also flagged for better fortune while he flirts with the worst BABIP of all time, but he’s become irrelevant in fantasy leagues after Louis Varland has been pitching like a top-three closer. If regression hits around Muñoz, it could pull a closer back toward relevance quickly.

Which prospects are on the fantasy radar?

While injuries and slumps scramble the present, some managers are already hunting for the next fix.

Joshua Báez has clubbed six homers with a 1.373 OPS over the last two weeks and is arguably baseball’s hottest prospect. Lars Nootbaar returned to St. Louis’ outfield, while Victor Scott II was sent to the minors. DH is open when Ivan Herrera catches.

Báez’s K% is 32.1 in Triple A, an issue—but he also has future 30-HR/30-SB upside. When Báez is called up by the Cardinals, he’ll be the kind of player that forces waiver-wire fights. For now, he’s rostered in only 12% of Yahoo leagues.

In deeper leagues, Cole Carrigg and Braden Montgomery are recent outfield call-ups worth adding. Carrigg has Coors Field on his side and is the preferred add if you’re looking for speed. Montgomery has more power potential but carries a greater batting average risk.

Fantasy managers are dealing with a harsh reality: the roster churn isn’t slowing down. and the IL is making patience expensive. Some players are about to return—Skubal tentatively as soon as Friday or Saturday, Judge after four to six weeks. Others are stuck in slumps that might correct themselves—Riley, Pasquantino, Machado.

In this moment, the real skill isn’t just drafting well. It’s surviving the weeks where everything changes, and choosing who to trust before the next injury report breaks.

fantasy baseball IL Aaron Judge Tarik Skubal Austin Riley Vinnie Pasquantino Jake Bauers Payton Tolle Alex Lange Manny Machado Andrés Muñoz Joshua Báez