Icelanders head to the polls Saturday to decide whether their government should restart talks to join the European Union more than a decade after the previous effort was put on hold.
Even a victory for the pro-EU side would leave membership far from settled. The government would first reopen negotiations with Brussels, and any eventual agreement would have to return to Icelandic voters and win approval from all 27 EU members. While EU membership comes with geopolitical benefits, the union also requires economic concessions.
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The race remains extremely close, but the latest poll has opponents slightly ahead. Gallup found 51.6% against reopening negotiations and 48.4% in favor. Earlier this week, a Maskína survey nearly reversed the result, with “Yes” at 51.3% and “No” at 48.7%.
“It is clear that the international system we have lived in since the end of World War II is in turmoil,” Foreign Minister Thorgerdur Katrín Gunnarsdóttir wrote, according to a translation cited by CNBC.
Haraldur Olafsson, chairman of the Euro-skeptic group Heimssýn, put the opposition view more bluntly. “The independence of Iceland is the most precious resource that we have,” he said.
Why this vote feels different
For years, Iceland’s EU debate has focused heavily on fishing, farming, the krona and how much control the country should retain over its own affairs.
This time, security is harder to separate from those questions.
President Donald Trump’s push to acquire Greenland has changed the atmosphere around the debate. Iceland lies nearby in the North Atlantic and has no armed forces of its own. Its security rests on NATO membership and a bilateral defense agreement with the United States dating back to 1951.
That has put questions about Iceland’s security relationships alongside the economic and sovereignty issues that have shaped the EU debate for years.
The case for and against
Those favoring renewed talks argue that closer EU ties could give Iceland more political and economic weight in Europe at a time when its traditional security relationships are being reassessed. They do not present EU membership as a replacement for NATO or Iceland’s defense relationship with the United States.
Iceland already has extensive ties to the bloc. Membership in the European Economic Area gives it access to the EU single market, and the country also participates in the Schengen travel area, which allows passport-free travel across much of Europe.
Opponents worry that joining could give Brussels too much influence over sectors Iceland considers especially important, including fishing and farming. Fishing disputes were also a major obstacle during the country’s earlier membership effort.
The same Maskína poll found that 40% of respondents expressed sovereignty concerns. Another 47% reported little or no concern about the issue.