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Hurricane risk tops the Midwest surprise list

Florida and Texas lead in the amount of homes facing moderate-or-greater hurricane wind damage, but the Northeast’s risk is flagged as potentially more financially punishing—driven by dense populations and high property values. Cotality’s data puts New York Ci

Summer is when many homeowners shift into vacation mode. For those living under the shadow of hurricane season, though, the mindset never really turns off—because even the storms that don’t arrive as often can still hit with a cost that lasts for years.

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Property data and analytics firm Cotality says hurricane wind risk is widespread. It found that Florida and Texas have the highest amount of homes with moderate or greater risk of hurricane wind damage. But the stakes can be sharper in the Northeast, where Cotality points to immense population density and property values.

“While hurricanes hit the Northeast less frequently than the Gulf Coast, the region’s immense population density and property value mean the stakes are incredibly high,” Cotality vice president of insurance market insights Maiclaire Bolton-Smith said in a release.

“It’s critical that homeowners in the Northeast understand that while landfalling hurricanes may not be as frequent as other states, the risk is still real.”

That message lands with a set of numbers that are hard to ignore. Across the United States, more than 32.2 million homes sit at moderate or greater risk from hurricane winds alone. Those homes are tied to over $12.26 trillion in reconstruction cost value, according to Cotality.

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The rankings also show how the map doesn’t always match popular expectations. While the top line risks remain concentrated in the usual hurricane belt, some of the biggest exposure shows up far from the Gulf.

Cotality also highlighted metro-level impact: New York City ranks ahead of any Florida city. Its reconstruction cost value is more than $1.9 billion, and it has the most homes with a moderate or greater risk of hurricane wind damage.

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Below are the 15 states where homeowners face the highest risk of hurricane damage, using Cotality’s moderate-or-greater hurricane wind damage figures. Median home price data is from Redfin.

15. Maryland
Number of homes with moderate or greater risk: 479,881
Reconstruction cost value: $179.6 billion
Median home price: $446,900

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14. Alabama
Number of homes with moderate or greater risk: 768,390
Reconstruction cost value: $232.7 billion
Median home price: $299,000

13. Pennsylvania
Number of homes with moderate or greater risk: 781,797
Reconstruction cost value: $360 billion
Median home price: $308,500

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12. Connecticut
Number of homes with moderate or greater risk: 813,066
Reconstruction cost value: $426 billion
Median home price: $445,100

11. Georgia
Number of homes with moderate or greater risk: 836,172
Reconstruction cost value: $243.1 billion
Median home price: $373,700

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10. Mississippi
Number of homes with moderate or greater risk: 837,860
Reconstruction cost value: $241.8 billion
Median home price: $265,200

9. Virginia
Number of homes with moderate or greater risk: 1,146,781
Reconstruction cost value: $426.4 billion
Median home price: $462,400

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8. South Carolina
Number of homes with moderate or greater risk: 1,482,345
Reconstruction cost value: $476.9 billion
Median home price: $397,600

7. Louisiana
Number of homes with moderate or greater risk: 1,657,255
Reconstruction cost value: $515.7 billion
Median home price: $260,300

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6. Massachusetts
Number of homes with moderate or greater risk: 1,785,383
Reconstruction cost value: $1 trillion
Median home price: $645,400

5. New Jersey
Number of homes with moderate or greater risk: 2,208,651
Reconstruction cost value: $1.2 trillion
Median home price: $545,300

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4. New York
Number of homes with moderate or greater risk: 2,213,104
Reconstruction cost value: $1.2 trillion
Median home price: $595,900

3. North Carolina
Number of homes with moderate or greater risk: 3,165,030
Reconstruction cost value: $1.1 trillion
Median home price: $381,700

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2. Texas
Number of homes with moderate or greater risk: 4,763,476
Reconstruction cost value: $1.5 trillion
Median home price: $341,800

1. Florida
Number of homes with moderate or greater risk: 8,249,592
Reconstruction cost value: $2.3 trillion
Median home price: $416,800

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An uneasy trade-off runs through the full list: even where hurricanes may arrive less often. the combinations of population and property value can make recovery costs look bigger than the headlines suggest. For homeowners and insurers alike. the question becomes less about whether storms will come. and more about how prepared—and how exposed—each region truly is.

hurricane risk hurricane wind damage Cotality homeowners Florida Texas Northeast reconstruction cost value New York City insurance market insights Redfin median home prices

4 Comments

  1. I swear they just keep moving the goalposts. Like first it’s ‘not as bad here’ then it’s ‘financially punishing’… okay. Also why does it say New York City like that makes any sense for hurricanes? Aren’t those more like Florida storms?

  2. Midwest surprise list? I didn’t even know the Midwest was on hurricane duty lol. And 32.2 million homes sounds made up, like how do they even measure ‘moderate or greater’ wind damage? My aunt in Ohio says they never get hit, so I’m confused. But I guess it’s about rebuilding costs, not the actual storm count.

  3. Vacation mode?? People in NYC don’t even relax when it’s hurricane season, unless they’re just pretending. This article says Northeast is worse financially because of property values, but then it’s also saying hurricanes hit less frequently. So is it actually a bigger risk or just expensive if something happens? Either way insurance companies are gonna raise prices and call it ‘data.’

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