House holds – Even as prosecutors and watchdogs flag insiders using prediction markets for profit, House members are still allowed to bet through “event contracts.” Rep. Ritchie Torres and Rep. Ashley Hinson have pushed for rule changes, the Senate already imposed a prohibi
For now, House members and staff can still place bets on prediction markets—an arrangement that lets “event contracts” translate political, policy, military, sports, and cultural outcomes into money.
That reality sits uneasily alongside a series of cases and warnings that have moved the issue from a tech novelty to a politics-and-integrity flashpoint. In April, prosecutors charged a U.S. soldier with using classified information to bet and win more than $400,000 on the removal of Venezuelan leader Nicolás Maduro. In May. NPR reported that a political campaign staffer made “thousands” by betting on their own candidate using unreleased polling data.
Rep. Ritchie Torres, D-N.Y., has framed the sticking point in blunt terms: “The status quo is indefensible,” he told NPR. He added, “There’s no justification for allowing members of a campaign or members of the government to bet on their own decision making.”
Last week, Torres introduced a bill banning campaign staffers from betting on their own candidates using insider information. He also signed a bipartisan letter urging House leadership to “end abuse in the use of prediction markets in our chamber immediately” by changing House rules. Torres said he hasn’t heard “anyone” argue against a House prediction market ban. and described the delay as political “inertia.”.
As it stands, House members and staff can still bet on prediction markets. House ethics rules. moreover. make no mention of prediction market bets—event contracts—so there are no requirements for profits from those wagers to be disclosed in Congressional financial disclosure filings. House ethics rules do require members and staff to report profits from other assets, including cryptocurrency, stocks, and bonds.
Blake Chisam, a former chief counsel for the House Ethics Committee, called the absence of guidance a “blind spot.”
The regulatory patchwork adds another layer to the pressure. The Commodity Futures Trading Commission oversees and regulates prediction markets. Insider trading is prohibited by the CFTC under the Commodity Exchange Act. but some lawmakers and former commission regulators worry that the rise of prediction markets—such as Kalshi and Polymarket—may require new laws to prevent “nefarious bets” involving politics. military action. and policy.
Rep. Ashley Hinson, R-Iowa, is pushing for the House to change its rules as well. Earlier this month, she proposed a prediction market ban on House members and staff. “Congress isn’t a casino,” Hinson—who is campaigning for Senate this year—wrote in a statement to NPR. “Members shouldn’t be able to profit off prediction markets—or stock trades—with insider knowledge. That is wrong and maybe the swampiest thing I’ve ever heard.”.
Hinson’s push comes as the prohibitions are already spreading elsewhere. The Senate recently issued a chamber-wide prohibition on staff and Senators buying event contracts. The White House also entered the conversation: in an April memo. it warned staff and federal employees against using popular prediction markets Kalshi and Polymarket.
And yet, despite calls for a new House rule and at least 10 proposed bills focused on insider trading on prediction markets, the lower chamber has not moved.
On Friday, Speaker Mike Johnson, R-La., told reporters on Capitol Hill that a House ban is “an idea we’re talking about” and that he “would be in favor of it.” Johnson said it would take time to build “consensus.”
Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries is supportive of a House prediction market ban. Jeffries spokeswoman Christiana Stephenson told NPR in a statement that Jeffries “would urge Speaker Johnson to bring a measure to the floor swiftly that would ban Members of Congress from trading on prediction markets.”
The House is not standing still procedurally, even if it hasn’t produced a new ban. Last week. the House Oversight Committee confirmed to NPR that it has “begun to review prediction market operations.” Chairman James Comer. R-Ky. told Fox Business he had started “requesting information” from these exchanges and threatened subpoenas if he did not get the information he requested.
Taken together—pending House rulemaking. active oversight. and already-imposed bans in the Senate and warnings from the White House—the current moment looks less like a dispute over principle and more like a dispute over speed. Proposals, hearings, and warnings are piling up. What hasn’t changed is the basic fact that. in the House. event contracts remain legal for members and staff to buy.
House of Representatives prediction markets event contracts Kalshi Polymarket insider trading CFTC House Ethics Committee Mike Johnson Hakeem Jeffries Ritchie Torres Ashley Hinson Commodity Exchange Act Nicolás Maduro congressional rules
So basically Congress is still betting? Shocking.
I read “holds off” and thought they were gonna ban it, but nope. Doesn’t surprise me though, they always “study” it until election season is over. Also how is this not like insider trading?
The headline says bipartisan calls so I assumed both parties voted yes already, but apparently the House just kept the loophole. “Event contracts” sounds like a fancy way of saying they get to bet anyway. And the part about classified info?? Like come on, that’s not a game.
Wait is this about like sports betting too or just politicians betting on war and stuff? My cousin said something about “Nicolás Maduro” and then it was all over TikTok so I’m confused. If they can hide profits because ethics rules don’t mention “event contracts,” then what’s even the point of disclosure?