Hot Stuff: Mariners vs. Phillies Series Preview

The Phillies are coming in on a nine-game winning streak after sweeping the Twins, Marlins, and Cardinals in successive series. Philadelphia continues to remain in a tight race for the NL Wild Card and the NL East division title. Meanwhile, the Mariners are barely hanging onto the fringe of the AL playoff picture, including giving up 19+ runs twice in a week. All this is to say the momentum is with the Phillies.

So things aren’t looking great, but the Mariners are not eliminated yet; it’s still very possible for them to make a run for the playoffs, remaining just three games out of the Wild Card and three games out of the AL West. Plus, despite the blowouts, the Mariners still claimed a series victory over one of the best teams in the NL, the Chicago Cubs. While things have definitely looked bleak since the All-Star break, this team still has the chance to control their destiny, and disrupting a red-hot Phillies squad could be the perfect start to doing so.

The Phillies are a different team than you would expect, despite the notable names in their lineup — Bryce Harper, Kyle Schwarber, and Trea Turner — they actually don’t pop off the page much as a team offensively. They’re not top 10 in the NL in runs or average or home runs or hits. In fact, across the board they end up rather middle of the pack despite the power-hitting stars that fill out the lineup. It’s much more likely that you’ve heard talk about their rotation this year, especially the continued breakout of Cristopher Sánchez, who the Mariners will thankfully be missing. However, the Mariners will still have to face the always dangerous Zach Wheeler, who is likely cruising to another top 10 Cy Young finish, as well as closer Jhoan Duran, who remains one of the best closers in MLB. This group of pitchers excels at striking out batters, so much so that they lead the NL as a group. However, the Phillies have weaknesses; while their starters can often go out and drop a quality start or keep a lineup shut down for six innings, the bullpen will still let a few runs through. If the Mariners can score early and attack a leaky Phillies bullpen, they may yet have a chance to size some momentum here and ride it right into the playoffs.

The Phillies have rarely deviated from the lineups they send out on a day-to-day basis. The top three will almost always be Schwarber, Turner, Harper, followed by some combination of Bryson Stott, Alec Bohm, and Luis Arraez. While the order can shift, those six are essentially guaranteed to be in the lineup somewhere.

Kyle Schwarber typically leads off; the three-true-outcomes power hitter and perpetual MVP candidate continues to offer power and a solid eye at the top of the lineup, leading the NL in home runs and currently third in walks. Schwarber also leads the NL in strikeouts, so it’s not like there’s no hope in getting him out. Trea Turner typically falls behind Schwarber. The well-compensated shortstop has faced a lot of criticism this year from local fans as his production continues to fall short of expectations. The former All-Star has gone from winning a batting title to dropping 60 points in his batting average and has struggled to match his form and performance from last year on any level. Still, you never know when someone is gonna break out, and the Mariners tend to bring the best out of their opponents. Bryce Harper rounds out the top three; the two-time MVP is always a cause for concern, and this week is no different. Harper leads the league in walks while boasting a 134 OPS+ to go along with 26 home runs so far this year. While he might not quite be in the MVP conversation, Harper is certainly someone to be very wary of.

Zack Wheeler has been one of the best pitchers in baseball for the better part of a decade, a model of consistency and health. A blood clot in his shoulder cut his season short last year and he eventually had to undergo surgery for thoracic outlet syndrome. Despite the severity of the injury, he missed just a month to start the season and has looked no worse for wear once he got back on the mound. Under the hood, he’s seen his strikeout-to-walk ratio slip just a tiny bit, though a strikeout rate dropping from 33.3% to 30.4% still makes him one of the best strikeout artists in the game. He’s got excellent command of his deep repertoire, plenty of weapons to induce swings and misses, and masterfully keeps batters off balance.

Aaron Nola’s long and successful career seems to be winding down. He’s been a staple member of the Phillies rotation for more than a decade, but with all those miles on his arm, he’s started the slow descent of an aging hurler. His ERA isn’t as high as it was during an injury-plagued season last year but his FIP is up to a career-high this year. His trademark curveball is still a very effective pitch but the deterioration of his fastball velocity is the main culprit behind his struggles. He’s responded by throwing his breaking ball more than ever, but batters are still pounding his hard stuff when they see it.

After trading for Jesús Luzardo last year and helping him truly establish himself as a big league pitcher, the Phillies signed him to a five-year extension this offseason. He has responded with the best season of his career. His strikeout-to-walk ratio is higher than ever, he’s pushed his groundball rate up six points, and he’s very likely to earn downballot Cy Young votes for his efforts. Everything starts with his power sweeper. He’s throwing that breaking ball more than ever and it’s one of the best pitches in all of baseball. A pair of solid fastballs and a changeup round out his repertoire, but the big bender is the foundation that makes the whole package hum.

Another week, another Wild Card leader. Thanks to a sweep over the weekend in Colorado, the Guardians have leapt into the third Wild Card slot, tied with the Rangers and Astros. Houston technically holds the AL West division lead despite matching records with the other Texas team; the ‘Stros travel to face the Yankees this week. Meanwhile, the Rangers head to Chicago to face the AL Central leading White Sox.