Hilton leads – A new statewide Democratic Party poll finds former Biden cabinet member Xavier Becerra still leading Democrats for California governor, while Republican Steve Hilton sits atop the overall race among likely voters. The numbers come as Becerra faces escalating n
For weeks, the race has been shaped by nonstop television ads and sharp debate attacks—then the numbers arrived, and they didn’t match the drama.
In a new poll released Tuesday by the state Democratic Party. former Biden cabinet member and current California political heavyweight Xavier Becerra remained the top Democrat in the California governor’s race. He received support from 21% of likely voters. while billionaire Tom Steyer—who has been flooding television airwaves. internet and social media with ads targeting Becerra’s record in public office and Becerra’s acceptance of campaign donations from oil giant Chevron—led with 15%.
The poll’s GOP figures were just as stark. Republican Steve Hilton, a former Fox News host, topped all candidates with 22% support. His top GOP challenger, Riverside County Sheriff Chad Bianco, was at 10%.
Becerra’s position is coming with pressure. He has been targeted by a barrage of negative political ads and enduring sharp attacks from rival Democratic candidates during recent debates. Yet Tuesday’s poll suggests Steyer’s spending has not yet broken through enough to lift him past Becerra.
Democrats in the wider field lagged behind the top two. Former Orange County congresswoman Katie Porter received 7%, San José Mayor Matt Mahan came in at 4%, and state Supt. of Public Instruction Tony Thurmond and former Los Angeles Mayor Antonio Villaraigosa registered at 1%.
After a campaign event in South Los Angeles on Tuesday, Becerra said he believes he’s climbed because voters are now paying attention.
“They’re really looking closely at who’s out there. and I think I’ve been one of the beneficiaries of folks looking for a place that they can feel comfortable where they can trust. ” Becerra told reporters. “I think more and more as people look at the candidates. they’re going to start to crystallize behind somebody who won’t need training wheels. as I say. when they get into the governor’s office and can hit the ground running. day one.”.
He argued that Steyer’s attacks aren’t landing, adding that Californians are skeptical of a billionaire’s attempt to buy influence.
“He’s spending like no one before, and he’s hitting like no one before, and so far, it hasn’t made a difference,” Becerra said. “We continue to surge, even after weeks of his barrage of lies and attacks…. California voters are not anxious to have someone who wants to buy the office.”
What makes the timing especially consequential is how close California’s campaign calendar is now getting to the moment when ballots must already be in motion.
The June 2 primary is required to advance to the November general election. and under California’s top-two primary system. only the candidates who finish in first and second place in the primary advance—regardless of their political party. Ballots were mailed to the state’s 23.1 million registered voters. and early voting sites opened earlier this month. but the poll also comes at a point when most Californians have not yet sent in their ballots.
That means the numbers could harden into momentum—or they could drift as more voters begin to participate.
For Becerra’s campaign, the poll is also being viewed as a turnaround from early momentum that appeared to collapse.
In early April, a California Democratic Party tracking poll showed Becerra with support from just 4% of likely voters. That changed after then-Northern California Rep. Eric Swalwell. who had been the front-running Democrat in the race. withdrew from the campaign and resigned from Congress after he was accused of sexual assault and misconduct.
The California Democratic Party launched a series of tracking polls in March after leaders and allies grew increasingly concerned that Republicans would win the top two spots in the primary. shutting the party out of the November general election. While that outcome was statistically possible given the crowded field of candidates running for governor. that prospect has grown increasingly less likely as California voters have focused on the contest to lead the nation’s most-populous state and the world’s fourth-largest economy.
The new survey tested 1,200 likely voters between May 14 and 16, with a margin of error of 2.83% in either direction.
Even with Hilton and Becerra currently looking like the likeliest candidates to finish in the top two—based on Tuesday’s snapshot—there is still time left for voter support to rise or fall. In a race where early voting has only just opened and ballots are still largely sitting with voters. the final weeks may be when the advertising airwaves and debate performances translate into who actually steps forward in June.
California governor's race Xavier Becerra Tom Steyer Steve Hilton Chad Bianco Katie Porter Matt Mahan Tony Thurmond Antonio Villaraigosa June 2 primary top-two primary system