As it has been almost all of 2026, Apple’s September-quarter growth is expected to be slowed by a lack of supply-side availability that won’t be able to meet “incredibly strong demand” for iPhone, iPad, and Mac products.
If you’re going to have a problem in this world, it isn’t so bad to have an Apple problem. In spite of its $109 billion record breaking June quarter, analysts are already sweating about the September quarter.
Apple didn’t warn of some catastrophic fall in demand or lack of RAM that might impact revenue streams. No, instead Apple CEO Tim Cook shared that demand was so incredibly high that the supply chain wouldn’t be able to keep up.
“Let me stress this again,” Cook said during the earnings call, “this isn’t a partner or supplier issue. This issue is an incredibly strong demand.”
Cook really wants to ensure that investors know that the supply chain is more than capable of providing orders at the usual scale. However, the issue is that demand is much higher and supply constraints have increased to the point that Apple can’t simply order more product.
Realistically, this means that September’s revenue will be lower than it potentially could have been simply because there wasn’t enough inventory available to buy during that quarter. It remains to be seen if supply-side inventory will catch up during the December quarter or not, or if these constraints will continue into 2027.
High demand and growth are good problems to have
Revenue growth is expected to be in the teens for the September quarter.
It is an incredible assertion considering September can be an awkward quarter for Apple. Savvy customers know an iPhone is on the way, so they’ll hold back on purchases.
However, the iPhone does launch with a couple of weeks’ worth of sales in September, which can provide a boost. From what it sounds like, Tim Cook is talking about the iPhone 17 lineup demand more than the upcoming iPhone 18 lineup.
Of course, the discussion also pertains to iPads and Macs. Those products won’t see a refresh until later in the fall, so what demand there is for current options will carry through the quarter.
Supply-side inventory will continue to be a constraint going forward, but expected iPhone price hikes could also create a problem for Apple. That won’t be known until guidance is provided in October or revenue is shared in December.
The counterbalance here is the new Apple Intelligence and Siri AI. Beta testing shows these are well-executed products that could drive incredible demand, even with potential price increases.