An 11% rise in average IRS refunds in 2026 has been attributed to the 2025 Trump tax changes, according to late-March IRS data.
A prominent Republican lawmaker has pointed to a sharp jump in the average IRS tax refund this year, arguing the new numbers reflect recent federal tax changes and the relief they are delivering at filing time.
In a March 31 post on X, Rep.. Nick Langworthy. R-N.Y.. said the “average IRS tax refund is up 11% compared to last year” and linked that increase to the “Working Families Tax Cut.” He credited it with expanding the standard deduction and child tax credit. eliminating taxes on overtime. tips and Social Security. and other provisions. framing the refunds as a tangible sign of economic help for Americans.
PolitiFact previously reported that parts of this description require precision: the 2025 Trump tax legislation did not eliminate taxes on Social Security.. Instead. it reduced taxes for older Americans. many of whom receive Social Security. which the campaign had characterized as a “Compromise.” The earlier pledge to eliminate taxes on overtime also received a “Compromise. ” and the pledge to end taxes on tips was described as a “Promise Kept.”
On the specific question of refunds, the key dispute was whether Langworthy’s 11% figure held up against IRS data. When his office was contacted, a spokesperson said the 11% number came directly from the IRS.
IRS statistics for the week ending March 27. published shortly before Langworthy’s post. showed an 11.1% increase in average refunds. rising from $3. 170 for 2025 to $3. 521 for 2026.. Subsequent IRS data released in the following weeks indicated that the 11% figure largely held steady, with only small week-to-week movement.
Experts cautioned that refund-season averages can change as more returns are processed and the mix of filers evolves.. Garrett Watson. director of policy analysis at the Tax Foundation. said averages during filing season can fluctuate. even as the underlying tax changes broadly lift refunds.. In earlier comments. Watson described how taxpayers typically do not receive the full benefit of tax cuts immediately through withholding; instead. if withholding is not adjusted. much of the benefit may arrive all at once at tax filing.
Tax policy mechanics help explain why refunds can rise even when the year-to-year experience for households varies.. When deductions and credits are expanded and income is taxed less due to enacted provisions. taxpayers who withheld based on the old rules can find that their final liability is lower than they expected. producing larger refund checks once returns are reconciled.
The broader political point Republicans are making is that the early refund-season pattern reflects the 2025 tax and spending legislation signed by President Donald Trump.. While the debate over particular claims—such as how the law affects taxes on Social Security—has focused on wording and implementation. the refund data itself offers a more straightforward benchmark: the IRS figures show average refunds in 2026 running about 11% higher than in 2025 by late March.
By mid-to-late March and into the weeks after. official IRS statistics showed average refunds roughly 11.1% higher than in 2025. and that difference remained close to 11% in subsequent releases.. Based on those government numbers and the general consensus among tax experts that the 2025 tax bill was the main driver. Langworthy’s claim that the average refund was up 11% was rated True.
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