Harris leads – A new poll of Democrats released in early June shows Kamala Harris leading Gavin Newsom by double digits in a hypothetical 2028 Democratic primary matchup, while other surveys also place Harris at the front of the race against likely Republican challengers.
On a Friday that still felt far from Election Day, Democratic voters were asked to imagine a 2028 primary. The result came quickly: Kamala Harris pulling ahead of Gavin Newsom, with a wide gap that has quickly reshaped the conversation about where the party’s energy may go next.
The survey. released by The Center Square Voters’ Voice Poll. found Harris leading Newsom among Democratic voters in a hypothetical matchup. Harris received 27 percent of the vote compared with Newsom’s 14 percent. The poll also showed Pete Buttigieg at 11 percent, Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez at 8 percent, and both Illinois Gov. JB Pritzker and Kentucky Gov. Andy Beshear at 2 percent each. Seventeen percent of respondents said they were not sure.
No candidate has formally announced their candidacy.
The poll was conducted by Noble Predictive Insights from June 1 to June 4, surveying 1,013 Democrats. It carries a margin of error of 1.93 percent.
Political timing is part of the reason the numbers have raised attention rather than settled it. After 2025 polling hinted at close hypothetical contests between Vice President JD Vance and prominent Democrats. the uncertainty inside both parties has remained a central theme. Surveys in 2026 have also shown Harris drawing measurable support among prospective Democratic primary voters overall. even as the field includes familiar names like Newsom and Ocasio-Cortez. plus Buttigieg.
Grant Davis Reeher. a professor of political science at Syracuse University. cautioned that the current result may reflect familiarity more than commitment. In an email to Newsweek on Friday. Reeher said the race is “still early enough that this result could be driven by name recognition. familiarity. and the fact that by having run for president once. Harris did generate a following. which would show up in a poll of likely Democratic primary voters.”.
He also raised the stakes of what voters choose to weigh when the campaign becomes real. Reeher said, “No!. There are lots of reasons for this,” pointing first to her loss to Trump in 2024. He cited what he called “California political baggage. ” as well as “many unforced errors she made in the campaign—particularly avoiding of answering basic policy questions. the fact that she never won a primary. and the fact that the more people saw of her. the less they liked her (a dynamic that was apparent in the ’20 primary campaign).”.
Reeher said he would be “stunned if she were to emerge as the nominee for ’28,” adding that she could help the party “by making it clear that she is not pursuing a second presidential nomination, but she apparently won’t do this.”
Harris has not made a formal decision about a run, but her comments have already fed speculation. Earlier this year, she told the Rev. Al Sharpton that she is “thinking about it,” when asked if she is considering a 2028 run.
Ocasio-Cortez’s position is shaped by a different kind of ambition, at least as she has described it. Last month, David Axelrod, a former adviser to ex-President Barack Obama, asked Ocasio-Cortez about a potential 2028 run. She said in part that she doesn’t want to make decisions as a lawmaker while weighing a future bid for president or senator—then pivoted to the issues she says will outlast any office.
“My ambition is to change this country. Presidents come and go. Senate, House seats, elected officials come and go. But single-payer healthcare is forever. A living wage is forever, workers’ rights are forever, women’s rights, all of that, and so anyways … to a finer point to your question is that when you aren’t attached. right. when you haven’t been like fantasizing about being this or that since the time you were 7 years old. um. it is tremendously liberating.”.
Later, Ocasio-Cortez said, “I want to make decisions from a place of how are we going to change the country.”
Other surveys add their own layer to the picture—suggesting Harris is also perceived as a strong general-election figure, even as her path inside the Democratic primary remains unsettled.
A Lake Research Partners poll released last month showed Harris at 26 percent and Newsom at 17 percent. with Buttigieg at 16 percent and Ocasio-Cortez at 10 percent in a first round of a ranked-choice simulation. along with other candidates drawing single digits. In the final ranked-choice round, Harris had 52 percent compared to Newsom’s 48 percent.
That poll surveyed 800 Democratic primary voters nationwide from May 6 to May 11 and had a margin of error of 3.5 percent.
A Public Sentiment Institute poll also put Harris ahead in multiple matchups. It showed Harris leading Vance 47 percent to 38.9 percent. Against Secretary of State Marco Rubio, Harris led 46.9 percent to 38.9 percent.
The poll also showed Harris leading Florida Republican Gov. Ron DeSantis 47.2 percent to 38.8 percent and leading Texas Republican Sen. Ted Cruz 46.1 percent to 38.5 percent.
Buttigieg, in that same polling, trailed Harris yet remained competitive. It showed Buttigieg leading Vance 45.7 percent to 39.8 percent and leading Rubio 44.3 percent to 39 percent. Against DeSantis, Buttigieg led 45.2 percent to 37.3 percent, and against Cruz, he led 45.5 percent to 37.5 percent.
The poll also tested Newsom in hypothetical matchups against potential Republican candidates, still showing him leading in every scenario. Versus Vance, Newsom had 45.1 percent to 38.6 percent. Newsom led Rubio 45.9 percent to 39.1 percent and led Cruz 44.4 percent to 39.4 percent.
Public Sentiment Institute surveyed 893 likely voters on May 21 with a margin of error of 3.8 percent.
None of the numbers change the basic reality that 2028 is still ahead. Still. the June poll’s double-digit lead gives Democrats a clearer first image of what their voters might be gravitating toward—while the competing surveys underscore a second story: whether Harris’s early strength is durable. or whether it dissolves the way many early-stage presidential preferences often do once candidates are forced to define what they stand for. and how they plan to win.
Kamala Harris Gavin Newsom 2028 presidential race Democratic primary JB Pritzker Andy Beshear Pete Buttigieg Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez JD Vance Marco Rubio Ron DeSantis Ted Cruz
Polls mean nothing anyway.
Wait so Harris is already leading for 2028? That’s wild. Newsom trailing by double digits feels like people are just voting for whoever sounds safest.
A hypothetical matchup in June 2026-ish (or whatever) and they’re calling it a “surge” like it’s locked in. Also 27% vs 14%… doesn’t that just mean most people picked someone else or “not sure”? Like 17% not sure plus other candidates adds up a lot.
I can’t tell if this is good news or just more proof that Democrats recycle the same names. Harris, Newsom, Buttigieg… feels like the party already decided. And the fact nobody announced anything yet but we’re talking “reshaped the conversation” like come on, people are probably just answering the headline not the actual question.