Gold hovers around $4,000 as rebound slips

gold hovering – Gold has bounced around the $4,000 level and silver sits below $60, as hawkish central banks and inflation fears keep pressure on precious metals. Spot gold was $3,990.17 an ounce Thursday morning after slipping under $4,000 the prior session, while silver was

Gold traders woke up to a familiar number again—$4,000—and this time it didn’t hold.

On Thursday morning, spot gold was flat at around 5:50 a.m. ET, trading at $3,990.17 an ounce after falling below the $4,000 mark in the previous session. It briefly broke back above $4,000 during Thursday, only to retreat again later in the morning. Front-month U.S. gold futures were marginally lower, settling at $4,006.60. Even with gold moving in short bursts, the bigger picture is harder to ignore: year-to-date, gold is down by around 7.5%.

Silver isn’t offering much relief. Spot silver was 0.1% higher at $57.49 an ounce on Thursday morning, rebounding from a loss earlier in the day, but July futures were down by 1.2% at $57.41. Since the beginning of the year, spot silver has lost almost 20% of its value.

This is a metals market that learned how to surge—and then learned how fast that momentum can evaporate.

Both gold and silver had record-smashing rallies in 2025, surging 66% and 135% respectively over the course of the year. The rally continued into early 2026, but volatility followed. Silver futures suffered their biggest single-day blow since the 1980s at the end of January. and gold’s safe-haven status has been called into question after the outbreak of the U.S.-Iran war in February.

In a note on Wednesday. strategists at Macquarie said “all eyes” are now on the trajectory of inflation—and whether central banks. particularly the Federal Reserve. will tighten policy to keep prices under control. They said the “apparent end to the conflict in the Middle East. ” combined with a more hawkish Fed. has pushed prices lower as gold’s safe-haven appeal fades along with the prospect of higher interest rates and a stronger USD. Macquarie also said a Fed rate hike in Q4 is “now fully priced in.”.

Markets are pricing in a Fed rate hike by September, according to the CME’s FedWatch tool. This comes as the European Central Bank and the Bank of Japan raised interest rates this month in response to the Iran war energy shock.

Macquarie also pointed to the tone coming from the top of the Fed. saying new Fed Chair Kevin Warsh’s first meeting had taken a “hawkish tone. ” and that under his leadership the central bank has the “potential to derail or support prices” in the gold market. They forecast that after the fallout from the Middle East weighs on global growth into Q3. the eventual upturn in global growth and a monetary policy easing cycle should see gold prices trend lower. In their view, more investor money transitions out of precious metals, with investors taking profit and pivoting toward equities.

They added that gold could still attract money again, but it would likely require a major macro event to reignite broader interest.

Inflation, in other words, isn’t just a headline—it’s the steering wheel.

Macquarie forecasts an average gold spot price of $4,641 per ounce for 2026, a 35% year-on-year gain. But it expects prices to fall 9.5% to $4,200 in 2027 and decline every year until 2030. The firm also trimmed its year-end forecast for spot gold to $4,300 on Wednesday from a previous outlook of $4,400.

For silver. Macquarie tied last month’s pressure partly to profit taking and said “price action is back to being macro driven” amid rising expectations of a Fed rate hike. The firm expects prices to remain range bound for the remainder of this year before gradually trending lower in 2027. with inflation and the probability of a Fed hike limiting further upside.

Macquarie said the higher inflation and bond yields move, the greater the downwards pressure. It also pointed to silver’s tighter supply and low inventories alongside strong demand. arguing that bullish sentiment driven by those factors has made silver more vulnerable to a retracement—and that historically silver retraces quickly. It expects silver to trade at $70 per ounce in the final quarter of this year before falling to $65 an ounce by the end of 2027.

Not everyone is ready to write off gold’s future.

Guy Adami. co-founder or RiskReversal Media and a “Fast Money” trader. told CNBC’s “Closing Bell Overtime” on Wednesday that gold is “still in play” despite headwinds. He referenced talk about central banks potentially selling gold at the beginning of the war. saying he has “no validation or verification of that” but that the idea was circulating. He then described the mood in markets. pointing to why investors might question gold’s appeal when other assets are making big moves—saying. “in a world where Micron adds $130 billion of market cap in the after hours. people are saying. ‘why am I messing around with gold right now?’”.

Adami said he’s “still of the belief that inflation is a problem” and that interest rates go higher. He acknowledged the dollar’s headwinds but argued that “at some point” it should “sort of flip. ” adding. “and gold is going to be back in favor.” He also said gold’s decline from its all-time high—around 24%—makes it “no sense” to argue for a fresh rally. but he still believes central banks will keep adding to their positions and that gold will remain “in play for the remainder of the year. ” as he told CNBC.

That long-term support—central bank demand—has been part of the story, and it surfaced again last week. The World Gold Council’s annual Central Bank Gold Reserves survey found that central banks continue to view gold as a key hedge against inflation and geopolitical risks. Almost 90% of respondents said they expect global central bank gold reserves to increase over the next year.

Even so, Wall Street’s tone has turned more cautious. In recent weeks, a number of Wall Street analysts have slashed their target prices for gold. Strategists at OCBC said in a note on Thursday morning that heavy pressure remains on gold prices after the break below $4. 000. with price action increasingly reconnecting with real yields. They wrote that even as the medium-term constructive story holds. hawkish Fed rhetoric and a higher real rate environment call for a more cautious stance on gold in the near term.

They added that until real yields ease—or ETF liquidation slows—or hawkish Fed rhetoric unwinds more, rallies may remain vulnerable to fading.

Back in the market’s immediate present, the lesson is plain. Gold can hover near $4. 000 and silver can rebound toward $57—but the precious metal rally that once looked unstoppable is now fighting the same forces every morning: inflation fears. interest-rate expectations. and the shifting weight of what investors believe comes next.

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