With free agency and trade season approaching, NBA players surveyed by an outlet on player anonymity are split on where Giannis Antetokounmpo will be next. Nearly half believe he’ll resolve things with the Milwaukee Bucks, while the Miami Heat, New York Knicks
For many NBA fans, the playoffs feel like the only clock that matters. But league players are already tracking another deadline: the beginning of July, when free agency and trade season kick into gear.
At the center of that timing scramble is Giannis Antetokounmpo of the Milwaukee Bucks. His franchise has given him an ultimatum—sign an extension this summer, or his time in Wisconsin is over. It’s the kind of ultimatum that turns every rumor into something closer to a countdown.
During the season, an outlet interviewed over 100 players using a promise of anonymity to answer survey questions. One of the pressing topics: where Antetokounmpo’s next season would actually land. Of the 151 players who responded. 45.7%—nearly half—believed he would find a resolution with the Bucks and at least start next season in Milwaukee.
That prediction carried weight, but it also came with an important caveat that players weren’t necessarily thinking about once the playoffs turned serious. The answers were gathered during the season, before the Bucks began pressing for a resolution on the “he-will-he-won’t” situation.
When you step back, the survey reveals the shape of the league’s uncertainty. The largest share of players still ties Antetokounmpo to Milwaukee. but a significant chunk spreads his next chapter across several franchises—each with its own appeal and its own complications. That spread, more than any single pick, is what makes the weeks ahead feel like they could get chaotic fast.
Behind the Bucks, the top five teams players believed Antetokounmpo would go to were Miami Heat at 23.2%, New York Knicks at 16.6%, Los Angeles Lakers at 3.3%, Golden State Warriors at 2%, and Minnesota Timberwolves at 2%.
Miami sits near the top because it’s been a magnet for free agents. a franchise described in the reporting as one that will do “anything” to land another superstar. The Knicks. too. have been tied to Antetokounmpo for much of last season. but their current run in the NBA playoffs adds pressure to that storyline. Depending on how they feel about their core by season’s end. a deal could become either more realistic—or suddenly irrelevant.
And then there’s the possibility that sits at the edge of what players can even imagine: one of the survey respondents pointed to the Oklahoma City Thunder. The reporting says that if it happened, the reaction could be even worse than when Kevin Durant went to the Golden State Warriors a decade ago.
Even as the league moves toward July, the current reality is that Antetokounmpo’s future is still being weighed against an ultimatum from the Bucks. Players can guess. Fans can hope. But the closer the calendar gets to summer decisions, the less time there is for speculation to stay hypothetical.
Giannis Antetokounmpo Milwaukee Bucks NBA free agency NBA trade season Miami Heat New York Knicks Los Angeles Lakers Oklahoma City Thunder Golden State Warriors Minnesota Timberwolves
If he really has an ultimatum, why is anyone acting surprised? Bucks better pay up.
I feel like the “47% think he stays” thing is kinda pointless because playoffs change everything. Like everyone waits until the end then suddenly “sources say” he’s leaving lol.
So what are they saying, Miami is getting him just because they’re popular? Half the time these surveys don’t mean squat. Also Giannis would never leave Wisconsin… right? Unless the Knicks trade for him and then everyone forgets the whole thing.
Bro the “beginning of July” deadline always feels made up, like everyone’s just waiting for permission to panic. If he doesn’t sign the extension, does that mean he’s gone immediately? Seems like Bucks are basically forcing the worst timing ever. I saw something earlier about Knicks fans already celebrating too early.