Gerrymanders, judges, and alley-oops: Control of Congress

From Texas to Virginia, state lines have been rewritten through political pressure and court rulings, shifting the midterm fight for control of the House and Senate into a contest of timing, turnout, and thin margins—especially in competitive races like Califo

A month after courtrooms became arbiters of redistricting, the midterm argument for control of Congress has started to feel less like a debate and more like a scramble—one where maps, rulings, and public mood all collide on the same calendar.

It began last summer with a political move in Texas: President Trump strong-armed Republican lawmakers into redrawing their congressional map. aimed at boosting the GOP’s chances of keeping control of the House. California responded with a measure of its own. Voters passed an eye-for-an-eye approach designed to bolster Democratic prospects. Other states joined the skirmishing. and the pressure peaked in Virginia. where voters in April approved new political lines intended to net Democrats as many as four additional seats.

For a brief moment, it looked like Trump’s move had backfired—at least on paper—setting up the possibility that Democrats could come out ahead by a seat or two.

Then the courts stepped in.

In May, the Virginia Supreme Court issued a 4-3 decision striking down the state’s new congressional map. The court said the Democratic-run legislature had violated procedural requirements when it placed the constitutional measure on the ballot. A week earlier, the more significant legal development landed from Washington: the U.S. Supreme Court nullified a major part of the federal Voting Rights Act. freeing several Southern states to hastily redraw congressional districts in ways that could favor Republicans.

So what does it add up to? The GOP appears to have come out ahead, but not by more than a handful of seats—give or take.

That margin matters, because none of this cartographic competition guarantees outcomes in November. Maps were drawn to help one party or the other, but the redrawn districts are still not automatic wins.

In California, the Central Valley seat held by Republican David Valadao—long a Democratic target—remains highly competitive. In Texas. GOP lawmakers redrew their map assuming the substantial Latino support that Trump enjoyed in 2024 would carry into this year’s midterm. That assumption is looking less secure as Latino attitudes shift. leaving at least two of the redrawn Texas seats more competitive than Republicans would like.

The question for House control, then, narrows to a practical target. Democrats still need three seats to win the chamber, and nothing about this has removed the basic math. Going back more than half a century. the out party—meaning the party not in the White House—has gained an average of more than two dozen House seats in midterm elections.

There’s another factor that could cut deeper than district lines: President Trump’s approval ratings. As Jacob Rubashkin. an analyst with the nonpartisan political guide Inside Elections. put it. “It would be one thing if Republicans were trying to buck a historical trend and they were doing so strengthened by a popular Republican president. ” but “that’s simply not the case.” He added that Trump is “less popular than any president heading into a midterm election in a very long time.”.

Beyond polling, the explanation is familiar: midterms are almost always a referendum on the party in the White House. When disgruntled voters are more likely to turn out, the out party typically gains seats.

The Senate picture tilts the other way, with Republicans holding the advantage.

Part of the reason is straightforward math. Democrats need to flip four seats. There are 35 Senate races being decided this fall, but only about 10 are even remotely competitive—and nearly all are in states that Trump carried.

Still, the landscape has improved for Democrats compared with a few months ago. There’s less correlation between presidential approval and Senate outcomes than there is for House races. Even so. Trump’s headwinds are significant. and Republicans may have to overcome them in battleground states including Georgia. Michigan. and North Carolina. His public messaging has been rough around the edges. with quotes that include “I love the inflation” and “Affordability is a con job. ” while voters continue to feel pressure as gasoline and hamburger remain expensive.

Democrats, meanwhile, have done about as well as they could have hoped in placing preferred candidates in the Republican-leaning states of Alaska, Ohio, and Iowa—making those contests far more competitive than they would otherwise be.

Maine started as Democrats’ top target this election cycle. Five-term incumbent Senator Susan Collins is the only Republican senator running in a state that Kamala Harris won. The race remains considered a toss-up. But the nomination of Graham Platner. an oyster farmer and Marine Corps veteran. has changed the temperature—his background includes a tattoo resembling a Nazi SS symbol he did or did not apprehend. extramarital sexting. and coarse online commentary.

And in Texas, Democrats are framing their hopes with the kind of language campaigns use when the path is narrow. The party has not won a statewide race in Texas in decades. Attempts have included a “dream team” slate of a white/Black/Latino group. and past contenders such as Beto O’Rourke and Wendy Davis—both of whom flamed out short of victory.

Now the focus is on 37-year-old state Sen. James Talarico, who has built a national following with a telegenic, Christian-infused progressive platform. He is running against Texas Attorney General Ken Paxton. a Republican nominee whose resume includes a felony indictment. impeachment by the GOP-run Texas House. and allegations of repeated adultery.

To supporters, electing Talarico would feel like completing a desperation, last-second play—an alley-oop passed in the end zone. Not impossible. But not something to bet the ranch on either.

midterm election control of Congress House Senate gerrymandering redistricting Virginia Supreme Court U.S. Supreme Court Voting Rights Act Trump approval ratings David Valadao James Talarico Ken Paxton Susan Collins Georgia Michigan North Carolina