gas prices – As gasoline averages pass $4.50 nationally and exceed $6.15 in California amid disruptions to oil shipments through the Strait of Hormuz, multiple transit systems report rising ridership—especially where service is robust and fuel costs bite hard.
By the time drivers are paying more than $6.15 per gallon in California, some Americans appear to be answering the pump with a change in routine.
Across the country, higher gas prices are coinciding with rising use of buses, trains and commuter rail. The backdrop is a war in Iran that has disrupted oil shipments through the Strait of Hormuz, pushing the national average price of gasoline beyond $4.50 per gallon.
Transit experts say that when fuel costs rise, some riders do shift. But they also warn that long-standing, car-oriented development and inconsistent transit funding leave many people with few workable choices.
California is showing some of the clearest signs.. Transit agencies in San Diego. Los Angeles County. and the San Francisco Bay Area have seen ridership jump in recent weeks.. The San Francisco Municipal Transportation Agency—like other California agencies that received an emergency loan from the state in February—reported its highest ridership totals since the pandemic in March.
Mark Olson, a spokesman for the San Diego Metropolitan Transit System, said gas prices probably drove a 6.5 percent jump in ridership in March compared to the previous year. “Until the agency surveys riders, however, that remains an educated guess,” he said.
Olson added that the numbers are especially sensitive among riders with less financial cushion.. “A lot of our riders are low income. and certainly gas prices can be much more sensitive to lower income residents and riders.” To win back commuters. the agency—facing a $500 million budget deficit over the next four years—has launched a commute calculator that compares the cost of driving and public transit.
In San Francisco, Michael Roccaforte, a spokesman for the San Francisco MTA, said it was too early to link higher gas prices to ridership increases, but he described the return of riders to Muni as a “promising sign.” “It’s a service that really matters to everyone here in San Francisco,” he said.
The change is not confined to California. The Washington Metropolitan Area Transit Authority in the Washington, D.C. area and Valley Metro in Texas also reported increases. Intercity passenger rail operators Amtrak and Brightline have seen a boost, too.
The pattern echoes past research that tracks how sustained increases in fuel costs can push some people toward transit.. In a study co-authored by Hiroyuki Iseki. an urban studies and planning professor at the University of Maryland. researchers examined gasoline prices and public transit use in 10 cities between 2002 and 2011.. The study found that when gas prices climbed 10 percent over the course of 13 months. light rail ridership increased by 1.2 percent and bus ridership by 0.8 percent.
Iseki’s work also pointed to psychological effects as fuel costs crossed thresholds.. When gas prices rose by 10 percent and topped $3 per gallon. ridership of all forms of mass transit increased by about 1.2 percent.. A 10 percent increase that pushed prices beyond $4 led to a 9.3 percent jump for light rail.
“Usually the people who use commuter rail, take rail only for commuting, just one round trip between home and their work location,” Iseki said. “Commuter rail, the travel distance is longer than other transit trips, so the longer the distance of travel the more pricey the gasoline cost.”
Still, researchers caution that not everyone can—or will—make a switch.. Michael Manville. a UCLA urban planning professor. said some people are better positioned to leave their cars at home. especially those with access to commuter rail where travel time can compete with driving.. But he argued that the more likely outcome is that people keep driving and adjust their behavior—making shorter trips. making fewer trips. or cutting back elsewhere.
That adjustment, he said, runs into a “cognitive hurdle” that can be hard to clear.. “It’s one thing to say. ‘Look. I’m just not going to drive quite as much as I used to in a discretionary way. ’” Manville said.. “It’s quite another for the typical person to then say, ‘I’m not gonna drive to work.. I’m gonna figure out how the bus works.’”
Manville also pointed to a broader built-environment issue. “We made a bunch of policy decisions that turned them into bad masters, but they are also good servants,” he said of automobiles. “You throw the family in them, and you don’t have to worry about the chaos of your kids and all their stuff.”
A fundamental shift, he said, would require transit systems that are better funded and more reliable. Transit has accounted for less than a third of federal transportation funding since 1956. As of 2017, 87 percent of trips in the U.S. were taken by car.
Federal policy shapes access, too. Elisa Ramirez, who works on policy for Transportation for America, said she wants the federal government to treat mass transit as a core priority with consistent funding. Until that happens, she said, car travel will likely remain dominant.
“Time is money. and even though people can afford a $2 fare. they can’t afford to be late for work or miss doctor’s appointments. ” Ramirez said.. “For most Americans, driving is not optional, and that’s my big thing.. How much does gas impact people moving to transit?. First we need to have reliable transit.”
The connection between rising fuel costs and ridership is increasingly visible across multiple cities. and it shows up alongside both specific local moves—like San Diego’s commute calculator and speed and reliability upgrades in Muni—and the same broader constraints that researchers describe: gas can nudge behavior. but practical access depends on how convenient. consistent and funded transit is.
gas prices public transit ridership commuter rail light rail bus ridership Strait of Hormuz California transit San Diego Metropolitan Transit System San Francisco Municipal Transportation Agency Washington Metropolitan Area Transit Authority Amtrak Brightline
Gas is nuts. People taking the train now? Idk.
My cousin in LA said buses are packed now because gas hit like $6. But transit is always late so I don’t get it… unless people are just forced. Also the Strait of Hormuz stuff feels so far away.
So it’s Iran’s fault gas went up and now we “fix” it by taking public transit… which is already a mess. I mean, California should just build more roads or something? Ridership goes up but service doesn’t, doesn’t that just mean more overcrowding? Makes sense though I guess.
I saw this headline and thought it was saying transit ridership is climbing because gas prices are FALLING, like backwards. Either way, $6.15 is insane. I live in a “car-oriented” area and there’s no train anywhere near me, so yeah, what choice do people even have? Funding inconsistencies don’t surprise me, just wish they’d fix it instead of blaming a war.