A new peer-reviewed study examines how support for the “great replacement theory” is spreading among white Americans, finding a measurable link to Fox News viewing—amid a growing national conversation about immigration, race, and political violence.
On May 17, during a Washington Nationals game at Nationals Park, three people climbed from the upper deck and unfurled a large banner. From the message printed on it, the intent was unmistakable: the banner displayed a link to a white nationalist website.
The site pushed the core claim of the “great replacement theory”—the xenophobic conspiracy theory alleging that “shadowy elites” back permissive immigration policies to replace native-born white Americans with people of color. It warned of the “replacement of whites by people of color” and called for the deportation of 100 million people from the United States.
That single moment may have played out in a stadium. but it landed in the middle of a larger national shift. Prominent Republicans—including President Donald Trump. Speaker of the House Mike Johnson. and conservative podcaster Tucker Carlson—have echoed ideas associated with the great replacement theory. Conservative media outlets, including Fox News, have also disseminated those ideas to millions of viewers.
The question now is whether this is staying confined to extremists—or whether it has gained traction beyond them.
A new nationally focused look at public attitudes suggests it may be spreading farther than people would like to believe.
In a series of nationally representative surveys conducted by the study team. Americans were asked about their support for key tenets of the great replacement theory. In a latest poll of 1. 000 Americans fielded in March. 36% agreed with the statement: “Native-born Americans are losing their economic. political. and cultural influence in this country because of the growing population of immigrants.”.
Another 26% agreed with the idea that political elites are pursuing replacement from behind the scenes, endorsing the statement: “There are people who secretly work to make sure immigrants will eventually replace real Americans.”
The survey results also drew clear lines along identity and ideology. Support was concentrated most heavily among white Americans. Republicans. conservatives. and self-identifying members of Trump’s Make America Great Again movement. More than 3 in 4 members of the MAGA movement—along with close to 6 in 10 Republicans—agreed with the statement: “Immigrants invade and colonize the United States.”.
When the researchers looked for what helps explain the spread. they found multiple factors at once: white Americans who identified as Republican. who described themselves as conservatives. and who held negative views of people from other racial backgrounds were all more likely to express support for key tenets of the conspiracy theory.
But the study’s sharpest emphasis goes to media exposure.
The researchers say they focused on whether Fox News viewing made a difference on top of partisan identity. ideology. racial attitudes. and demographics. In the peer-reviewed work. they report that while 39% of all white Americans agreed that immigrants “invade and colonize the U.S. ” the figure rose to 61% among white Americans who watch Fox News.
Even after accounting for other variables, Fox News viewership remained significantly associated with greater support for the great replacement theory.
Because the study tracked respondents over time, it also aimed to observe what happens when media exposure changes. The researchers describe clear evidence of movement in attitudes: the more Fox News programming a white American watched, the more likely they were to adopt the conspiracy theory.
The study also links its findings to a long-running body of research about how media consumption shapes public opinion. Recent scholarship, the authors note, has highlighted Fox News’s influence on public attitudes about the COVID-19 pandemic, immigration policies, and criminal justice issues.
Here, the concern is not only that the conspiracy reframes immigration as an existential threat. The researchers argue that treating immigration in terms of survival—framing the stakes as the preservation of one’s country and identity—changes how people talk and decide.
They also point to another consequence: they say the theory has been linked to numerous instances of political violence directed at people of color and religious minorities.
Across those findings. one thread runs from a banner in a baseball stadium to survey numbers taken from across the country: the great replacement theory is not staying on the margins. As the study describes it. it has found a route into mainstream conversation. amplified by figures and outlets that reach far beyond a small extremist circle.
As the United States moves toward its 250th birthday, immigration and race will remain central to American politics. But the researchers’ warning is that conspiracies narrow the space for compromise—because they turn policy disagreements into something more combustible than disagreement.
The study authors—Adam Eichen, Jesse Rhodes, and Tatishe Nteta of UMass Amherst—say they tracked responses over time using nationally representative panel survey data covering over 500 white Americans. They also describe their work as peer-reviewed and nationally representative.
A version of the article first appeared on The Conversation, a nonprofit news organization dedicated to sharing the knowledge of researchers and scholars.
great replacement theory Fox News immigration race political violence UMass Amherst survey