(AP Photo/LM Otero and Eric Gay)
Fox News has updated its “Power Rankings” for the 2026 midterm elections, and notably shifted the Texas Senate race from Likely R to Toss-Up.
Texas State Rep. James Talarico (D) will face off against Texas Attorney General Ken Paxton in November. Democrats have not won a major statewide race in Texas since the late 19990s, but several factors have elections prognosticators giving Talarico a solid chance at flipping the seat blue.
Paxton won the primary against the incumbent Republican, Sen. John Cornyn (R-TX), but it was a viciously contentious battle that burned through campaign funds and put a spotlight on the series of scandals, lawsuits, a bitter divorce from his state senator wife, and other controversies that have dogged Paxton for years. The AG did score President Donald Trump’s endorsement but is still widely viewed as a weaker candidate in the general election due to the seemingly unending parade of messy headlines and the downward drag of Trump and the GOP’s poor polling on key issues like immigration and the economy.
Earlier this month, Nate Silver released his updated forecast for the November midterms and rated Texas as “Lean D,” designating it as one of his top picks to flip blue.
Fox News’ analysis doesn’t view the race quite as rosily for Talarico as Silver, but did just shift its prediction from Likely R to Toss-Up.
A report by Fox News lead political affairs specialist Rémy Numa noted Talarico had “enjoyed some robust polling results this summer” and was “averaging 48% in three recent polls, hitting 51% in Fox’s survey, while his opponent, Ken Paxton, averages 46%.”
Screenshot via FoxNews.com
The “national environment” — with Trump’s approval ratings mired in the 30s and “often lower” on the economy and the Iran war — “has benefited Talarico,” Numa wrote. “Gas prices have proven even tougher to sell: only 21% of Americans recently said they approved of Trump when asked specifically about that issue.”
This was “an election year that’s already favorable to Democrats” and “while Talarico must defend a history of ‘woke’ comments, voters say they’re less worried about those” than “Paxton’s history of legal and personal issues,” Numa added.
Fox News also shifted the Texas governor’s race leftward, moving the match between incumbent Gov. Greg Abbott (R) and Texas State Rep. Gina Hinojosa (D) from Solid R to Likely R. Numa commented that while Abbott “maintain[s] a lead…this race is clearly competitive.”
“Paxton appears not to be helping this ticket,” Numa continued, but Abbott will likely be able to rely on his “fundraising prowess” and Republicans’ historical dominance in the Lone Star State.
Screenshot via Fox News.
Fox News did have some good news for the GOP in Michigan’s Senate race (moving it from Lean D to Toss-Up after progressive candidate Abdul El-Sayed won the Democratic primary) and Minnesota governor (moving from Solid D to Likely D), but elections for Kansas Senate and Alaska governor both nudged leftward.
Overall the Fox News analysis made the unusual prediction of finding both Democrats and Republicans had “a chance at a landslide” due to the number of toss-up seats.
“The latest Senate forecast includes six states where neither Democrats nor Republicans have an edge,” wrote Numa. “That could make for an extraordinary election night. In one scenario, the Democrats not only flip the Senate, but end up with 53 seats. In another, Republicans hold on to the Senate with no net loss of seats.”
Screenshot via Fox News.
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