Former Republican presidential candidate Vivek Ramaswamy slips behind Democrat Amy Acton in Ohio’s gubernatorial race, new poll finds

Republican Vivek Ramaswamy, a former GOP presidential candidate and Trump administration official, has fallen behind Democrat Amy Acton in Ohio’s governor’s race, according to a new poll released less than 50 days before Election Day.

The contest remains highly competitive, with Acton holding a narrow advantage within the poll’s margin of error as both candidates seek to succeed term-limited Republican Gov. Mike DeWine. Ramaswamy’s support has also slipped by 1 percentage point from a similar poll by the same pollster.

Ohio’s gubernatorial race is one of 36 contests nationwide this year, including high-profile races in Michigan, Alaska, Iowa, Wisconsin and Texas.

Ohio governor’s race polls

A Bowling Green State University/YouGov poll of 1,000 likely Ohio voters found Acton leading Ramaswamy 48 percent to 45 percent. Her 3-point advantage falls within the margin of error of plus or minus 4 percentage points. Four percent backed Libertarian Don Kissick, while 3 percent chose someone else. Ramaswamy’s net favorability stood at negative 11 points.

Despite trailing in the ballot test, Ramaswamy remained the candidate voters expected to win. Sixty-two percent said they believed he would become governor, compared with 36 percent who expected Acton to prevail.

Both candidates had net-negative favorability ratings. Acton was viewed favorably by 41 percent and unfavorably by 42 percent, while Ramaswamy was viewed favorably by 36 percent and unfavorably by 47 percent.

In an April Bowling Green State University/YouGov poll of 1,000 registered Ohio voters, Ramaswamy led Acton 48 percent to 47 percent. That survey had a margin of error of plus or minus 3.9 percentage points.

Reaction to the September poll split along partisan lines. Acton campaign manager Philip Stein told Newsweek, “This poll showcases what we see every single day across Ohio; Ohioans are ready for change.” Stein added that Acton is “the only candidate in this race who will lower costs, tackle the cost of corruption and build a state where all of us can get ahead,” and said Ramaswamy “just doesn’t get our state.” Newsweek reached out to Ramaswamy’s campaign for comment.

John Feehery, a partner at EFB Advocacy, told Newsweek that Ramaswamy faces a structural disadvantage tied to perceptions of incumbency, even in a historically Republican state, while noting that Ohio Republicans have consistently won statewide.

Additional polling and forecaster ratings

A Wedgewood Poll of 800 likely voters found Acton ahead by 1 point, 47 percent to 46 percent, with 7 percent undecided. The poll’s margin of error was plus or minus 4 percentage points.

A Fox News poll of 1,008 registered voters put Ramaswamy ahead 50 percent to 48 percent, with a margin of error of plus or minus 3 percentage points.

Tulchin Research found Acton leading 46 percent to 44 percent in a survey sponsored by John Kulewicz, the Democratic candidate for Ohio attorney general. The poll of 660 likely voters had a margin of error of plus or minus 4 percentage points.

A New York Times/Siena College poll of 601 likely voters found the candidates tied at 47 percent, with a margin of error of plus or minus 4.7 percentage points.

An AARP survey conducted by Democratic firm Impact Research and Republican firm Fabrizio, Lee & Associates found Acton leading 47 percent to 44 percent among 800 likely voters. The margin of error was plus or minus 3.5 percentage points.

An earlier Impact Research survey of 800 likely voters had Ramaswamy ahead 47 percent to 46 percent, with 7 percent undecided. Acton had 60 percent name recognition, with 33 percent viewing her positively and 28 percent negatively. Ramaswamy was known by 80 percent, with 44 percent viewing him positively and 41 percent negatively.

RealClearPolling’s polling average put Acton ahead by 0.3 percentage points, effectively making the race a statistical toss-up.

The Cook Political Report rates the race as a toss-up after moving it from Lean Republican. The forecaster said campaign money can only carry a candidate so far when personal flaws weigh down a campaign. Sabato’s Crystal Ball rates the race as likely Republican.

Security incident at Canfield Fair shakes up the race

The race took an unexpected turn when an armed man was arrested after allegedly lunging toward Acton during a campaign stop at the Canfield Fair in Mahoning County near Youngstown.

Acton was speaking at the Mahoning County Democratic Party’s tent around 2:30 p.m. when the suspect, who lives in Canfield, approached with a cellphone and began pushing through the crowd, according to sheriff’s spokesperson Gerry Ricciutti.

The suspect, identified as 38-year-old Patrick Havas of Canfield, was booked into the Mahoning County Jail on two counts of assault and one count of disorderly conduct. He later pleaded not guilty to all four counts, including an added charge of inducing panic. He was held on a $5,000 cash bond and ordered not to contact the media, victims or Acton and to relinquish all firearms.

Two people were knocked to the ground as members of Acton’s security detail, composed of Ohio State Highway Patrol troopers, confronted Havas before Canfield Fair Police officers took him into custody. Havas was not injured and the Ohio State Highway Patrol said Acton was also unharmed.

Officials recovered two handguns and brass knuckles from Havas. The highway patrol separately said a Taser was found, though investigators said none of the weapons were brandished or removed from their holsters.

Officials from both parties condemned the incident. Republican Senator Jon Husted wrote on X that he and his wife were disturbed by the attempted attack and said there was no place for such behavior. Ohio Attorney General Andy Wilson called the violence against Acton unacceptable and expressed confidence in the highway patrol’s investigation.

Acton said the following day that she was fighting for “our common humanity,” adding that voters across the state were exhausted by political division regardless of party.

Ramaswamy also called the incident unacceptable.

No public poll had been released after the Canfield Fair incident as of the latest Bowling Green State University/YouGov survey, leaving limited data on whether it affected public opinion.

Ohio’s Senate race

Ohio’s most recent Democratic senator, Sherrod Brown, served from 2007 until his defeat by Republican Bernie Moreno in 2024. Brown is now seeking a return to the Senate and faces Republican Senator Jon Husted, who was appointed to fill the remainder of Vice President J.D. Vance‘s term.

The Bowling Green State University/YouGov poll found Brown leading Husted 48 percent to 45 percent. Three percent backed independent Greg Levy and 2 percent chose someone else.

Despite Brown’s advantage in the ballot test, more voters expected Husted to win the seat, 53 percent to 45 percent.

A Fox News poll found Brown leading Husted 53 percent to 45 percent, with about 2 percent undecided. Brown led among independents by 38 points, 66 percent to 28 percent, in the survey of 1,008 registered Ohio voters.

A Wedgewood Poll of 800 likely voters found Brown ahead 48 percent to 44 percent, with about 8 percent undecided and a margin of error of plus or minus 4 percentage points.

The Cook Political Report and Sabato’s Crystal Ball both rate the race as a toss-up. Sabato’s Crystal Ball moved the race from Lean Republican after Brown and Husted formally won their party nominations.

Democrats’ chances of flipping the Senate

Democrats are seeking to reclaim control of the Senate, where Republicans currently hold a 53-47 majority. They must defend their existing seats, including two in states Donald Trump won in 2024, while flipping four Republican-held seats to regain the majority.

Matt Klink, owner and president of Klink Campaigns, told Newsweek that competitive Democratic Senate campaigns in Ohio and Texas reflect significant headwinds for Republicans nationwide.

Democrats argue that economic concerns, Trump’s declining approval ratings and the war with Iran could create openings in competitive races. Republicans maintain they will retain their Senate majority and control of Congress.

Doug Gordon, a Democratic strategist and co-founder of UpShift Strategies, told Newsweek that momentum favors Democrats and that Trump’s low approval ratings are giving them additional room to compete. He cautioned, however, that Democrats still have work to do.

Gordon said that outside North Carolina and Georgia, Democratic candidates have not yet broken 50 percent in polls, describing a wave that is building but has not yet arrived.

Bernadette Breslin, national press secretary for the National Republican Senate Committee, told Newsweek that summer polling has previously shown Democrats performing well in reliably Republican states before November results proved otherwise.

Breslin also criticized Brown and Texas Democratic candidate James Talarico over their positions on the Biden administration’s border policies, saying voters would not forget price increases and fentanyl deaths.

Nationally, 34 percent of voters approved of Trump’s job performance while 60 percent disapproved, giving him a net approval rating of negative 26, according to Civiqs’ rolling online tracking poll of registered voters. The survey had collected about 130,300 responses since Trump’s inauguration on January 20, 2025.

Alex Patton, owner of strategic public affairs firm Ozean Media, told Newsweek that the environment continues to worsen for Republicans and the electoral map is expanding. He said Democrats would still need a near-perfect night to flip the Senate and that uncertainty remains.

Nate Silver‘s Silver Bulletin model gave Democrats a 58.6 percent chance of winning the chamber, up from 50.6 percent.

Ohio is among several closely watched Senate battlegrounds that could help determine control of the chamber. Other competitive races include Georgia, where Democratic Senator Jon Ossoff is defending his seat; Michigan and New Hampshire, which have open-seat contests following retirements; and Maine, where Republican Senator Susan Collins faces a competitive reelection bid. Republicans are also defending seats in North Carolina and Texas.

What happens next

Ohio’s voter registration deadline is October 5, with early in-person voting beginning October 6.

Voters will head to the polls on November 3 to decide races for governor, the U.S. Senate and the House of Representatives.