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I’m at the point in the process when I want to fade the entire fantasy football draft. Summers are filled with good news where everyone is in the best shape of their life, dominating practices (cue Allen Iverson), being lauded by coaches and like the laundry detergent, “new and improved.”
Even injuries that happen in practices and will sideline players for weeks at a minimum are just sloughed off as completely inconsequential — “no big deal, he’ll be fine when the season rolls around.” After all, who needs practice? The only purpose of training camp is ranking upgrades.
Rose-colored glasses are the eyewear of choice every summer. It’s what we wear when we put together our cheat sheets. Meanwhile, I feel like Rowdy Piper in “They Live”, where my glasses reveal the horrible truth hidden beneath the surface.
For my All-Fade team (below), I’m noting where I have the players slotted in my rankings vs. where they are ranked as of Wednesday on Fantasy Pros, using their real-time ADP.
Quarterback
Lamar Jackson, BAL (QB2; My QB5)
I confess, I don’t think a lot about the top of the QB queue because drafting a QB early in a 1QB league (and even in Superflex) is madness. If you want to stack in a deep league and spend a fifth-round pick, maybe I can sign off on that. But in a vacuum? No. That’s just dumb. The reason is that all QB touches are uniform. Running QBs are more valuable, but running at QB is very volatile. And that’s the problem with Jackson. The 1,000-yard rushing years are over. So, too, is anything remotely approaching that. He rushed for 26.8 yards per game last year, less than half his prior-year average. He was 12th in rushing points per game. His scramble percentage was ninth among qualified QBs. His designed run rate was sixth. His rush rate inside the 10 was terrible, and he converted 3% of rushes into TDs. Compare that to 12.5% for Allen, who, yes, is the one remotely reasonable early-QB option (but don’t do it!).
Running back
Saquon Barkley, PHI (RB7; My RB9)
You can say the difference in ranks here is minimal, but Barkley is closer to a dead-zone RB for me than a first-round flyer. And these small differences in positional rank when the picks are that high means that you’re never taking the player. I am drafting WRs over Barkely every time. Last year, Barkley lost 34% of his 2024 production. And it was always just a question of how much he’d lose — not because of some year-prior touch number but just simple regression to the mean. His offensive line collapsed. He was 30th in yards over expected per carry and 43rd in yards after contact per carry. In 2024, he finished second and 17th in those categories, respectively. He was 42nd among 48 qualifiers in success rate. Now, at age 29, he’s in the first collapse season of RB aging curves, where backs produce at about 74% of their peak, on average. Barkley got a pathetic 34% of team rushing attempts inside the 5-yard line (37th among RBs). And he was 1-for-9 converting attempts inside the 5-yard line, the worst rate in the league with that many attempts. I need the RB I draft this early to be the default goal-line option.
Wide receiver
Justin Jefferson, MIN (WR6; My WR9)
The first gate you need to clear before drafting Jefferson is the belief that Kyler Murray will be close to an average passing QB, which he has not been since 2021. Murray’s track record with WRs is not great of late — 3.84 PPR per game for Michael Wilson with Murray compared to 15.5 with Jacoby Brissett. Marvin Harrison was better (but still not playable) with Murray. I keep hearing, “But DeAndre Hopkins…” Well, that was back in 2020-2022. And Hopkins had an average line of 107-1,310-8 per 17 games those three seasons. That’s 16.8 points per game in PPR, which was WR8 last year and WR12 in 2024 (WR scoring was down 8% in 2025). I think WR9 is the right number for Jefferson. And if anything, it’s bullish because this Murray is not as good now as 2000-2022 Murray. Is Jefferson now better than Hopkins then? Probably not.
Rashee Rice, KC (WR12; My WR17)
I was right last year in saying that Rice wasn’t good, but I was wrong in that translating to fantasy performance. He was the Christian McCaffrey of WRs. Rice clocked in at just 7.3 yards per target (about 2 yards off his prior pace) and had a career-low average depth of target. Rice ranked 72nd among 78 qualifiers in percentage of deep targets (20+ air yards). Andy Reid loses all reason with Rice, or maybe it’s the lack of any other even average weapon. Rice is slow, coming off a knee injury that he had to rehab in prison, and he can be easily defended. He played three games against top defenses last year — Denver, L.A. Chargers and Houston. He averaged less than 10 points per game against those opponents. This season, he has two matchups with each Denver and L.A. Chargers, and he’ll face New England and Seattle. That’s six games where Rice is unlikely to be playable.
Tight end
Tucker Kraft, GB (TE6; My TE14); George Kittle, SF (TE9; My TE16)
I’m putting them together because my reason for fading them is the same. I do not pay anything approaching an optimistic price for a player coming off a major injury within a year of suffering that injury. According to Sports Injury Central, headed by former NFL team doctor David Chao, “While many players return to the field, full return to pre-injury performance is far from guaranteed, especially in the first season back. Historical trends show: Reduced snap counts, decline in explosive play rate, loss of first-step quickness, increased reliance on scheme rather than athleticism.” Kittle suffered his Achilles tear in January. He’s 33 years old.
Kraft was heavily touted by me in 2025 and was No. 1 in red zone PPG and No. 1 in EPA/target for the season. But now we have to deal with an ACL recovery, and he won’t be fully healed until 2027 — plus it’s usually a step down from pre-injury form, and often two, after the full 18 months. We know WRs who come back from a torn ACL (not even including complications) generally lose about 30% of production from pre-injury levels. That’s why I’m also not drafting Malik Nabers (bonus fade!). I don’t see why this should be different for a TE.