EU jet fuel shortage warning echoes across aviation

An EU energy commissioner says there’s no immediate jet fuel threat, but a long-term shortage could emerge tied to Iran and the Strait of Hormuz.

A senior European Union energy official is warning that while jet fuel shortages are not imminent, the risk could grow in the long term as conflict around a key shipping chokepoint continues to reshape global fuel markets.

Speaking in Cyprus, EU energy commissioner Dan Jørgensen said there is currently “no immediate threat” to jet fuel supplies.. Still. he stressed that a longer-term shortage cannot be ruled out. depending on how the Iran war evolves and what happens in the Strait of Hormuz—an area that carries roughly a fifth of the world’s oil.

Jørgensen linked the uncertainty to both the course of the conflict and airlines’ responses to disruptions.. In recent weeks. some carriers—including Lufthansa’s German owners—canceled a significant number of flights. a move that he said could influence how quickly supply and demand rebalance for jet fuel.

The warning comes against a backdrop of supply disruptions and price spikes tied to fighting near the Strait of Hormuz.. When oil flows are affected. aviation fuel markets can move quickly because jet fuel pricing is tied to broader petroleum dynamics. leaving airlines exposed even if the disruption is not yet labeled an emergency.

While the commissioner said the EU is “not there yet” in terms of a jet fuel shortage. he indicated the bloc’s executive arm will begin discussions with member states on how best to address the situation.. He did not provide specifics on what those talks might produce. but the decision to convene suggests EU officials are already planning for scenarios that could tighten fuel availability later.

The financial pressure on aviation is a central part of the discussion.. Jørgensen said the price of jet fuel has more than doubled in some markets since late February. attributing the increase to the impact of the Iran war.. Airlines, he noted, are especially vulnerable because fuel costs make up a substantial share of airline operating expenses.

The commissioner also argued that the EU’s spending shows the scope of the disruption.. He said the bloc has paid 35 billion euros in additional costs for the same amount of fuel since the start of the Iran war.. In his framing. that spending reinforces the need for a rapid shift away from fossil fuels. even as aviation and other sectors remain reliant on them.

“There really is not an energy crisis.. This is a fossil fuel crisis,” Jørgensen said, pointing to the broader pattern of volatility and supply risk.. He added that the EU has diversified energy supplies. improved energy efficiency. and expanded renewables since the 2022 Russian invasion of Ukraine—steps that. in his view. have helped but have not eliminated exposure to global disruptions.

Cyprus energy minister Michael Damianos. whose country currently holds the EU’s rotating presidency. said fossil fuels like natural gas will likely remain part of the bloc’s energy mix in the foreseeable future.. He also said natural gas from deposits discovered off Cyprus’ southern coast could reach European markets by late next year or early 2028. offering a potential buffer as Europe weighs how to balance near-term supply with longer-term climate goals.

Damianos underscored that the EU’s greenhouse emissions reduction target—aiming for a 90% cut by 2040—remains firm. Jørgensen echoed the urgency of that direction, saying the bloc remains “very committed” to quickly reducing greenhouse gas emissions and that “the climate crisis will not go away.”

Beyond Europe’s internal energy planning, Jørgensen said the EU is also working with external partners. Over the long term, he said the EU is in talks with Gulf nations about how energy flows from the region can be restored after a negotiated peace with Iran is in place.

Those efforts align with statements made earlier by top EU leaders.. Last month. EU Council President Antonio Costa and EU Commission President Ursula von der Leyen said the EU was ready to pursue new projects with Persian Gulf countries to help convey energy to global markets in ways that are less dependent on war-prone routes and geopolitical instability.

For the airline industry. the key implication of the commissioner’s remarks is that the current situation may be manageable. but the direction is uncertain.. Even before any formal shortage is declared. the combination of conflict-driven disruptions. volatility in global fuel pricing. and schedule changes can accumulate pressures that affect routes. costs. and capacity planning.

At the same time. the EU’s dual-track response—monitoring immediate supply conditions while discussing longer-term contingencies—highlights how tightly aviation and broader energy security are linked.. As officials weigh negotiations with Gulf partners alongside accelerated decarbonization efforts. the central question is whether alternative supply routes and policy shifts can reduce the sector’s exposure before market stress becomes an operational constraint.

jet fuel shortage European Union energy policy Strait of Hormuz Iran war aviation fuel prices Lufthansa flight cancellations decarbonization