England’s likely – Using 10,000 World Cup simulations, the Opta supercomputer suggests England would top Group L most of the time—and could end up facing DR Congo in the last 32, Mexico in the last 16, Brazil in the quarter-finals, then Argentina in the semi-final before a possi
When England step out in Group L with Croatia, Ghana and Panama, it already feels like a route has been drawn—at least on paper. In 10,000 simulated tournaments, the Opta supercomputer keeps finding the same thing: England advancing far more often than anyone else in their group.
England are the top seeds in Group L and, across those simulations, they reached the knockout stage 96% of the time and won the group in 67.9% of the runs. Only Spain (75.3%) and Argentina (73.0%) are more likely to top their groups.
The machine is less definite about who they’ll face next. Croatia are the next-most likely to finish above the others in Group L, qualifying 77.8% of the time, compared with Ghana at 49.7% and Panama at 39.4%.
Even so, the group stage doesn’t look like it will break England’s momentum immediately. With eight teams able to qualify for the last 32 having finished third in their groups, the odds point to a cleaner split: just 12 of the 48 teams will be knocked out in the group stage.
If England top Group L, the next challenge comes from one of the eight third-placed teams. From there, the numbers tighten again. The winners of Group L are projected to face a third-place finisher from Group E, H, I, J or K.
In the last 32, England’s most likely opponent is mapped through hundreds of possible combinations. The third-placed teams most likely to emerge from those groups are Côte d’Ivoire (Group E). Saudi Arabia (H). Senegal (I). Algeria (J) and DR Congo (Group K). With 495 possible combinations overall. the projections still narrow the most frequent pairing: the winners of Group L end up playing the third-placed team from Group K in 330 of those scenarios—66.7%.
That’s why DR Congo stands out. The supercomputer’s most likely fixture for England in the last 32 is DR Congo on 1 July in Atlanta.
DR Congo’s World Cup history offers a sharp contrast to the kind of problem England would hope to avoid. They have only appeared once before. in 1974 as Zaire—where they lost all three games. failed to score. and conceded 14 times. The record is old, and the game has moved on—but the past still lands like a warning sign.
England, at least, have reasons to feel comfortable about meeting African opponents at World Cups. They have played eight matches against African sides at World Cups and have never lost: five wins and three draws. That includes a 3-0 win over Senegal at the last tournament in 2022.
And if England do beat DR Congo, the next round becomes a different kind of test—because it points to a match with co-hosts Mexico in Mexico City on 5 July.
Mexico are not just “a possible opponent” in the projection. They are the likeliest side to top Group A, with a 47.8% chance, and the simulations assume they will defeat a third-place qualifier in the round of 32.
For England, that would mean taking on Mexico in front of a partisan crowd at the Azteca in the capital.
England have met Mexico at a World Cup before—only once—and it came in a similar setup, with the teams swapping roles. England were hosts when they played Mexico in the group stage in 1966, and England won 2-0.
Even the broader history of England playing World Cup hosts adds texture, because it shows how those games can swing. England have faced three World Cup hosts: they lost 2-1 to Italy in the 1990 third-place playoff. but kept a clean sheet in group matches against Spain (0-0) in 1982 and Switzerland (2-0) in 1954.
Still, the route to Mexico in the simulations is not guaranteed. Group A does not include any of the world’s top 20 teams. leaving it “very open and unpredictable” even in this model. Mexico may be the favourites to win the group. but South Africa. South Korea. or Czechia could come up against England instead.
From there, the projections get dramatic again.
If England advance far enough to reach the quarter-finals, the most likely opponent is Brazil, on 11 July in New Jersey. Brazil’s record speaks loudly: they have won the tournament five times—a mark no other country can match. But the supercomputer also threads in the long wait: Brazil have not won it in 24 years.
England’s own hunger is longer. Their gap is 60 years, which makes this stage feel like a collision of patience—Brazil’s long drought and England’s even longer road back.
If England reach the semi-finals, Brazil could become the price of getting there.
England’s previous four meetings with Brazil include a draw once—at the 1958 group stage—and losses in 1962, 1970, and 2002. Two of those were in quarter-finals, with the 2002 match including Ronaldinho’s infamous lob over David Seaman from long range in Japan.
A quarter-final victory would send England into the semi-finals for just the fourth time.
Then comes the semi-final, and the name that changes everything: Argentina.
A win over Brazil would set the semi-final against Argentina on 15 July in Miami. The Opta supercomputer projects that both Argentina and England are two of the four teams in the World Cup semi-finals 9.2% of the time. That would require both teams to win their group and then progress through three knockout rounds.
The history between these teams has never been quiet. It includes controversy, redemption, and moments that keep resurfacing whenever England and Argentina meet.
This tournament would be England’s first match against Argentina since David Beckham scored a match-winning penalty in the 2002 group-stage clash in the Sapporo Dome. That goal was redemption for Beckham after he was sent off for kicking Diego Simeone in a last-16 tie in 1998. which Argentina eventually won on penalties.
Before that, in 1986, Diego Maradona’s famous “Hand of God” goal was followed by his superb solo “Goal of the Century” to knock England out at the quarter-final stage.
Twenty years earlier, England beat Argentina in the quarter-finals at Wembley, where the Argentina captain, Antonio Rattín, was sent off but refused to leave the pitch.
To continue their journey, England may have to do something no other team has managed in World Cup history: beat Argentina in a semi-final. England have played five semi-finals—in 1930, 1986, 1990, 2014 and 2022—and won them all.
But the present comes with its own shadow. England have been eliminated in their last two World Cup semi-finals—losing to Croatia in 2018 and being defeated on penalties by West Germany in 1990.
The memory that keeps dragging the conversation back to hope is the final itself. England have only played in one World Cup final, and they won it.
If the supercomputer’s dream route holds, the final opponent is Spain.
England’s odds to even make the last match are not small. Thomas Tuchel’s side reached the final in nearly a fifth of the Opta supercomputer’s pre-tournament simulations (19.0%). and they went on to win it 11.2% of the time. Across the simulations, only Spain (16.1%) and France (13.0%) won the World Cup more often.
Spain and England have history in this exact stage. England faced Spain in the final in 4.8% of the 10,000 pre-tournament simulations, a repeat of the Euro 2024 final, which Spain won 2-1 through Mikel Oyarzabal’s 86th-minute winner.
England’s record against Spain in their last five meetings includes only one win: a Nations League match in October 2018, when England raced into a 3-0 lead before holding off a Spain comeback to win 3-2.
So if England are to lift the trophy and end their 60 years of hurt with a second World Cup title, the route described here starts with Group L, travels through DR Congo, Mexico, Brazil, and Argentina—and ends with Spain.
Whether it happens or not, the simulations make one thing feel unmistakable: the path, if it opens, doesn’t ask England to rebuild a story from scratch. It asks them to finish the one they’ve been carrying for decades.
England World Cup Opta supercomputer Group L DR Congo Mexico Brazil Argentina Spain Atlanta Mexico City New Jersey Miami 2026 World Cup
So England could play DR Congo?? That seems random lol.
Opta simulations are meaningless to me. Like it’s a computer guessing who they might face and everyone acts like it’s destiny. If it happens cool, if not whatever.
DR Congo in last 32?? I thought Panama was way lower than Ghana so how is Croatia gonna finish higher 77% of the time. Also why would Mexico be in last 16 like that’s guaranteed? People just see names and run with it.
England topping the group 67.9% and knocking out 96%… okay but it always falls apart in real life. Spain and Argentina higher makes sense though. I’m just confused because they say they step out with Croatia, Ghana, Panama and then somehow meet DR Congo, Brazil, then Argentina?? That path sounds made up like FIFA bracket stuff.