El Niño has begun—and a Super year is looming

El Niño has officially begun and forecasters give it a 63% chance of intensifying into a “Super El Niño.” NOAA warns it could become one of the largest events since 1950, with major knock-on effects on global weather and an outlook that virtually guarantees 20

When NOAA announced that El Niño has officially begun, the message wasn’t subtle: the tropical Pacific is already changing, and forecasters expect it to keep escalating.

The latest report from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration says the pattern is forecast to intensify into a very strong or “Super El Niño. ” bringing major shifts in global weather patterns and a hotter climate. The stakes are being measured not just in discomfort this season. but in how quickly the planet’s extremes can stack on top of one another.

El Niño is a periodic weather pattern in the tropical Pacific Ocean. It alters winds and brings unusually hot waters to the central and eastern Pacific. Those ocean and wind changes don’t stay put. They ripple outward, reshaping weather patterns around the world.

NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center is assigning this event a 63% chance of becoming a “very strong” El Niño—an outcome colloquially known as a Super El Niño. The center is also describing it as one of the “largest El Niño events in the historical record going back to 1950.”

That confidence is reflected in the odds: NOAA is giving 100% odds of El Niño continuing through the fall, and extremely high odds of it continuing into the winter.

For it to be considered a Super El Niño, tropical Pacific water temperatures must be more than 2 degrees above average. Some reliable computer models suggest that threshold will be greatly exceeded.

What’s driving the surge is already visible beneath the surface. For the past few months. large volumes of unusually hot water have been moving from the western Pacific toward the eastern tropical Pacific as winds shift. NOAA says that hot water has traveled about 600 to 1. 000 feet beneath the ocean surface and is beginning to rise to the sea surface thousands of miles to the east. closer to South America. Similar dynamics have played out during past intense El Niños.

Super El Niño events are rare. The most recent ones occurred in 2015-16, 1997-98 and 1982-83.

But the biggest consequence may not be where rain falls or where storms track—it’s how much added heat the atmosphere is taking in. Because El Niño involves the transfer of a large amount of heat energy from the ocean to the atmosphere. it boosts global average surface temperatures on top of the human-caused warming trend from fossil fuel pollution. NOAA says this virtually guarantees that 2027 will eclipse 2024 to set a record for the planet’s new warmest year.

There’s a reason this matters day-to-day: El Niño tilts the odds toward certain weather and climate extremes—heat waves, flooding and droughts—depending on where you live. And even when the general pattern is familiar, the exact outcomes don’t behave like a script.

For the United States, El Niño’s impacts are most evident during the winter months.

Hurricanes are one major link in that seasonal chain. El Niño can supercharge the central and eastern Pacific hurricane season. while tending to limit the number of hurricanes in the Atlantic. NOAA says stronger El Niños like this one tend to increase the likelihood that those effects will occur. The report adds that the hurricane-season connections could spell trouble for the Southwest US and Hawaii. depending on where individual storms track.

Winter conditions in the US also tend to shift. Warmer-than-average conditions are typically seen from the northern US to western Canada and Alaska. even though that doesn’t preclude periods of colder weather. For the southern tier of the US. the pattern is often wetter and cooler. because a more active jet stream steers more storms over that region.

NOAA flags a specific possibility for California: the state could see more frequent atmospheric river events as the moisture-laden jet stream crashes ashore, though it is difficult to predict which part of the state would get the brunt of it.

Flood, heat and drought are expected to cut across multiple regions at once.

Australia and Indonesia. which are prone to drought and heat waves during El Niños. can face wildfires and water supply concerns. In summer. monsoon rain is reduced in India and southeast Asia. and NOAA says there are signs of this already starting to occur. Reduced precipitation in these areas can exacerbate summer heat extremes.

The Caribbean also often sees drought during El Niño, and warm and dry winters are typical in parts of southern and eastern Asia. Drought conditions could grow in Southeast Africa during the Southern Hemisphere summer from December to February.

At the same time, parts of the Horn of Africa could see flooding rains during the October to January period. For South America. a portion of southeastern South America is prone to heavier rainfall during El Niño years. while southeastern Brazil tends to experience hotter than normal conditions. A swath of northern South America extending into parts of Central America tends to be drier than average from July through December.

Timing matters there too. Northwestern South America, including Peru, is prone to heavy rainfall from El Niño during the January through May period, given the proximity to unusually hot ocean waters.

Oceans aren’t spared. El Niño events can lead to widespread marine heat waves and coral bleaching, because corals are sensitive to higher ocean temperatures. NOAA adds that marine heat waves themselves can influence regional weather patterns.

Economically, the impacts can show up far from the headlines. Studies have shown that strong El Niños can reduce countries’ economic growth through disaster losses, food supply disruptions and other effects.

And then there’s the part nobody can afford to ignore: the uncertainty. Individual El Niños, even very strong ones, do not precisely follow the impact playbook, and there will be surprises.

NOAA also warns that this Super El Niño is arriving while the world is already much hotter than average due to global warming from fossil fuel pollution. That means some questions remain about how that background warmth could turn up the dial on El Niño-related extreme weather events.

In short, NOAA notes there has never been an El Niño, let alone a Super El Niño, when the background climate was as warm as it is now.

Chris Dolce, a CNN meteorologist, contributed to the story.

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