El Niño could bring sharks to beaches that have never seen them

A warming ocean and the potential influence of El Niño are reshaping marine life, sparking fresh shark sightings this summer. Recent incidents include a critically injured Navy base employee in Florida on June 9 and rare underwater footage of a great white in

The question has started to feel unavoidable at the shoreline this summer: if sharks are turning up in places they haven’t been before, does that mean more beachgoers are in danger?

New headlines have fanned concern, and they all land at the same emotional point—unexpected proximity. Australia has recorded its fourth fatal shark attack of 2026, matching the kind of total usually seen over an entire year. In the Mediterranean. divers recently captured rare underwater footage of a great white shark. a species whose sightings are extremely uncommon there.

Closer to home, the stakes hit a different kind of nerve. A Navy base employee was critically injured in a shark attack in Florida on June 9. after being bitten while swimming near a marina at Naval Support Activity Panama City. The individual was taken to hospital in critical condition, though authorities have not yet confirmed the species involved.

The recent attention has also placed a familiar explanation back under the spotlight: warmer ocean conditions and El Niño.

Climate patterns like El Niño can warm ocean waters and reshape marine ecosystems. pushing both prey and predators into new areas. El Niño is characterized by unusually warm ocean temperatures in the eastern equatorial Pacific. The warmer water associated with El Niño displaces colder water in the upper layer of the ocean. causing an increase in sea surface height.

Chris Lowe. professor of marine biology and director of the Shark Lab at California State University. Long Beach. pointed to those shifting conditions as a factor that can influence where sharks are found. Oceanographers are predicting a very strong El Niño this year. Lowe said. and “when that happens we do start to see sharks show up in places where we don’t see them before.” He added that “a lot of that is driven by water temperature. ” explaining that as water temperatures increase. sharks move toward more comfortable conditions.

Lowe said that as water temperatures rise. the California area can expect to see more species of shark usually reserved for much warmer waters. During strong El Niño’s. he said. California waters may see tiger sharks. bull sharks. whale sharks. manta rays. and even hammerheads—species that he said are not normally seen there.

John Chisholm. an adjunct scientist at the New England Aquarium. said broader climate shifts have also resulted in changes to species further north. “We’ve seen spinner sharks and blacktip sharks, which are warm-water sharks, starting to show up up here,” Chisholm said. He added that every year more and more of them show up.

The sequence is stark in the way it lines up: warmer water can move entire ecosystems, and sharks follow the conditions that suit them. The public sees an uptick in sightings; scientists describe a shifting map.

Still, the headlines don’t tell the whole story about danger.

Global data suggests the overall risk remains low. The Florida Museum of Natural History’s International Shark Attack File recorded 65 unprovoked shark bites worldwide in 2025. alongside 29 provoked incidents and 105 total reported interactions. Researchers say year-to-year fluctuations are expected, and that the 2025 figure is broadly in line with recent averages.

The United States recorded the highest number of cases with 25 unprovoked bites, followed by Australia with 21. Florida accounted for 11 incidents, the most of any U.S. state.

Most encounters were tied to everyday beach activity. Swimming and wading accounted for 46 percent of interactions, while surfing or board sports accounted for 32 percent.

Chisholm said the number of shark-related incidents stays extremely low compared to the number of people entering the ocean. “When you look at the amount of beachgoers in the ocean every day and the number of incidents. it shows the sharks aren’t interested in people. ” he said. He also pointed to how modern technology changes what people perceive. “With cell phone technology. a lot of stuff is captured on camera and shared on social media. so it gets kind of blown out of proportion. ” he said.

Lowe echoed the idea that people often don’t realize what’s already nearby. “Some of our most recent data in California shows that white sharks are around people all the time. people just don’t know they’re there. ” Lowe said. He added that using drone footage. researchers see sharks swimming right by people and not even changing their path—“They’re completely ignoring people.”.

For beachgoers, scientists say the answer isn’t panic. It’s attention.

Chisholm encouraged people to be “shark smart,” which includes staying aware of surroundings, avoiding areas with visible prey like seals or large schools of fish, and not swimming alone. “It’s their home, you’ve just got to respect the fact that it’s their home,” he said.

He also encouraged reporting shark sightings—either using the Sharktivity app by the Atlantic White Shark Conservancy or by reporting sightings to local authority. Doing so, he said, helps the correct people provide warnings to beachgoers and supports research efforts.

What people are seeing, experts say, is shaped by seasonal patterns and shifting ecosystems—plus increased visibility. Some species are appearing in new places, and environmental changes may continue to reshape where sharks are found as summer progresses.

Even so, scientists insist the human risk remains extremely low: sightings may increase, but the overall danger to people does not match the level of alarm that headlines can create.

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