Air yards, whether we like it or not — and most fantasy folks definitely do not like it — are a good measure of a pass catcher’s opportunity and the type of passing volume in a given offense. That air yards don’t always translate into real, edible receiving yards is just part of our frustrating little game. We make small bets here and there and hope things break right from week to week and prove our process correct more often than not. It’s not any more complicated than that, even if we desperately want it to be.
Over the past few seasons I have used this space to talk mostly about guys with exceptionally high or low touchdown rates. Air yards has mostly been a side issue in the Regression Files. That will change in 2026: I want Regression Files to be your weekly go-to for (freely available) air yards data and what it means for your various fantasy football teams.
Thanks to my friend and fellow football analytics nerd Brad Beatson, we have a more organized way of not only tracking air yards data, but a measure of which pass catchers are seeing accurate downfield targets and which guys are not. The latter phenomenon is known in nerdy football circles as Prayer Yards, or inaccurate passes that technically award a bunch of air yards to a given receiver who rarely has a chance of converting those air yards into real yards as the football sails over their head or out of bounds or wherever else.
In this space I’m going to look powerfully into total team air yards trends, players seeing plentiful prayer yards, and those who are outperforming their air yards profile and (perhaps) due for the bad kind of regression.
Total Team Air Yards
The highest scoring Week 1 since the NFL-AFL merger generated quite a few air yards (along with actual yards, if that’s your thing). Some of that opening week air yards production came as no surprise, while other air yards developments might change the way fantasy folks view certain offenses.
Not every week will bring this ocean of air yards, unless, of course, the counterrevolution to the counterrevolution is here and the NFL’s defensive era is over — for now. A lot of summertime fantasy draft strategies are going to look pretty silly if that’s the case.
In this part of the Regression Files, we’re going to look at total team air yards and apply some context to the outliers from the previous week.
Pittsburgh Steelers
One thing I’ve learned over fifteen years in football media: Always dismiss talk of Mike McCarthy’s offense being balanced or run heavy.
That rule might serve me well in 2026. After averaging an abysmal 184.7 air yards per game in 2025 — by far the lowest in the league — McCarthy’s Steelers racked up the third most air yards of Week 1, trailing only the Saints and Packers. McCarthy’s Steelers were unapologetically pass heavy against the Falcons, posting the league’s third highest early-down neutral pass rate (66 percent).
This is some good dang news if you went in on the Pittsburgh passing offense in August drafts.
Miami Dolphins
I, for one, was on board with the consensus that the 2026 Dolphins would be one of the run-heaviest teams in recent memory. With Malik Willis under center, they seemed destined to set modern NFL records for run heaviness.
That, uh, didn’t come to pass in Week 1 against the Raiders. Nevertheless, we persist.
Miami in Week 1 ranked 12th in early-down neutral pass rate and piled up the sixth most air yards on the week. The team’s 309 air yards translated to 220 passing yards. This could, of course, be nothing more than the result of negative game script that forced Miami to abandon the run in the second half. Well, I have news for you: These Dolphins are going to see a lot of negative game script in 2026, maybe more than any team not named the Titans. That would be a nice little recipe for pass game production from a team that looked to offer none.
Buffalo Bills
We talked a bunch this offseason on the Rotoworld Football Show about new Bills head coach Joe Brady bringing a substitute teacher vibe to the team after years under the anti-fun, anti-analytics, anti-good decision making Sean McDermott. Brady, we suspected, would let Josh Allen cook in 2026. Through one week, we have never been more right about anything. Stop the count.
Last year the Bills averaged 201.5 air yards per game, the seventh lowest mark in the NFL. Against the elite Texans defense in Week 1 they posted the fourth most total team air yards. Think of it as an expanding pie of potential fantasy production: Dalton Kincaid got a bunch, as did DJ Moore. A big game from two Buffalo pass catchers would have been unthinkable a year ago. It could be commonplace in 2026 if Brady is really, truly committed to letting Allen cook.
Green Bay Packers
As a soulless spreadsheet football bro, I don’t care that the Packers collapsed in Week 1 against the apparently unstoppable Carson Wentz-led Vikings. I don’t care that everyone hates Matt LaFleur again. I do care that LaFleur did the right thing and let Jordan Love cook a little bit.
Green Bay had the second most total team air yards in Week 1, enough to power an enormous outing for Christian Watson and a solid-if-unspectacular outing for Matthew Golden, who wears the number zero for some reason. Green Bay’s 454 Week 1 air yards were nearly double their weekly air yards output in 2025.
The Packers still weren’t exactly pass-heavy on early downs against the Vikes. They ranked 13th in early down pass rate against Minnesota, generating 42 attempts for Love. This could be another case of an offense that wants to be balanced having to let it rip because they’re chasing points late in the ballgame; it’ll be something to monitor in the next couple weeks. For now I think we can say with limited trepidation that the wheels are up for Love and the Green Bay pass catchers.
Seattle Seahawks
The only thing I really know about a Drew Lock-led Seattle offense is that it will be spectacularly run-heavy. The Seahawks have no reason to lean on Lock with their dominant defense and passable rushing attack.
That probably means precious few air yards for anyone besides JSN. Neither Rashid Shaheed nor AJ Barner nor Cooper Kupp have much of a chance to post fantasy-relevant numbers until Sam Darnold gets back to full health. JSN remains the only game in town.
New York Jets
Garrett Wilson in Week 1 sparked on the spreadsheets, in case you’re into that sort of thing. He commanded almost half of the Jets’ air yards, 29 percent of their targets, and 37 percent of their first-read targets. Adonai Mitchell, meanwhile, was second in air yards. New York pass catchers were done in by positive game script that led to the team going 9 percent below its expected pass rate.
In more normalized game script Wilson and Mitchell — who ran 77 percent of the Jets’ routes — will be very interesting for fantasy purposes.
Tennessee Titans
The Cam Ward-led Titans produced a humble 202 total team air yards while leading the NFL in early-down pass rate (69 percent). That’s … hard to do. You gotta hand it to Brian Daboll.
I don’t know what to say about Tennessee pass catchers in such a dysfunctional offense, with such an inaccurate and overwhelmed passer at the helm. Carnell Tate seems to be the air yards eater. He took in about 43 percent of the Titans’ air yards on Sunday against the Jets. The problem is that 43 percent of the team’s air yards comes out to just 58 air yards.
Ward threw deep on 3 percent of his drop backs in Week 1. That’s not the kind of offense that can support more than one fantasy-viable pass catcher in a given week. Sometimes, as we saw on Sunday, that kind of offense will support zero fantasy-viable receivers.
Josh Allen and Caleb Williams started the 2026 fantasy season with a bang. The Bills’ new approach on offense has Allen in the driver’s seat to finish as the QB1 overall once again.
Prayer Yards Warriors (Players Who Could See Positive Regression)
DK Metcalf (PIT)
When DK Metcalf isn’t wondering why no one has ever been to Antarctica, he’s gobbling up a bunch of air yards.
Metcalf saw an obscene 204 air yards in Week 1 against Atlanta. Only Chris Olave — our good and decent air yards king — had more on opening weekend. I looked strongly into Metcalf’s air yards profile from a year ago, when he was coached by caveman OC Arthur Smith. What I found was this: Metcalf, one of the league’s best prolific downfield pass catchers, averaged just 70.3 air yards per game in 2025. There is, per my sources, a sizable gap between 70.3 and 204.
Metcalf dropped a potential big gain against Atlanta on Sunday and was interfered with on another deep shot from Aaron Rodgers, whose 10.5 air yards per attempt in Week 1 was the sixth highest among all quarterbacks and miles higher than his 2025 air yards per throw of 4.4.
Metcalf, meanwhile, saw 40 percent of the team’s first-read targets and led the Steelers in routes. Maybe the Steelers won’t be 10 percent above their expected pass rate every week — the way they were against the Falcons — but Metcalf’s role is going to lead to some gaudy stat lines this year.
Roman Wilson (PIT)
Metcalf’s teammate got in on the air yards bonanza too. Wilson ran a route on 60 percent of the Steelers’ drop backs against Atlanta and accounted for 33 percent of the team’s air yards. A mere seven NFL wideouts had more air yards than Wilson in Week 1. I think we all saw that coming.
It’ll be Metcalf, Michael Pittman, Jr., and Pat Freiermuth who benefit the most from a giga-turbo-ultra pass heavy Pittsburgh offense. Wilson could be interesting for deep league purposes though.
Malik Washington (MIA)
Washington was the main beneficiary of Malik Willis’ (relative) air yards extravaganza against the Raiders. He took in a whopping 42 percent of Miami’s air yards and 30 percent of the team’s targets with an aDOT of 16. It’s a classic high-variance wideout profile.
That Willis in Week 1 posted the NFL’s second highest downfield passing rate (22 percent) could mean Washington will see weekly chances to blow the proverbial roof off as an upside flex option. This kind of usage, as you surely know, can also lead to some down weeks, like Washington’s scoreless 53 yards on Sunday against Vegas.
Emeka Egbuka (TB)
Egbuka, one of the cover guys for last week’s Regression Files, should be just fine as soon as the Bucs stop turning over the ball every other drive.
Egbuka against the Bengals saw 70 percent of the team’s air yards and led the Bucs with five first-read targets. Tampa finished the week 23rd in total team air yards. I suspect that will climb when they have slightly more normal game script.
Implications for Chargers if McConkey misses time
Fantasy managers should keep their eyes on Ladd McConkey’s status after leaving Week 1 with a rib injury, and any missed time would have “enormous” ripple effects for Chargers pass catchers.
Bullseye Enjoyers (Players Who Could Face Negative Regression)
Christian Watson (GB)
I’ll start with a guy not listed here. Watson went off in a Week 1 performance fueled at least partly by weirdly negative game script. Seventy-three of his 147 receiving yards came after the catch, one of the highest YAC rates of Week 1.
I’m trying not to be nitpicky about this but I have to let you know Watson was only targeted on 19 percent of his routes against the Vikings on Sunday. It was Matthew Golden who led the Packers with a 26 percent target share and a 30 percent first-read target rate.
Watson’s 30 percent air yards rate led Green Bay by a smidge; Golden saw 28 percent of the team’s air yards. He’s an explosive pass catcher in an offense that probably has to be pass-first this season. You’re starting him every week. Just know that Watson ran awfully hot in Week 1.
Jalen Coker (CAR)
You may know me as the guy who dismissed Coker as a viable fantasy option at every turn this offseason. I’ll do my best to not allow that bitterness to affect my air yards analysis (Coker was spotted in a walking boot on Monday).
Coker’s final Week 1 box score made it look like he’s the Panthers’ unquestioned WR1. Everything else, however, left something to be desired.
-Coker saw 24 percent of Carolina’s air yards against the Bears. Tetairoa McMillan saw 21 percent.
-Coker was targeted on 25 percent of his routes. McMillan saw a look on 21 percent of his routes.
-Coker averaged 0.45 fantasy points per route; McMillan was at 0.37.
-Both Coker and McMillan had six first-read targets against Chicago.
The question is whether the Panthers defense is so atrocious that it forces Bryce Young to drop back 40-plus times a game and produce the sort of air yards totals that can fuel hefty stat lines for both Coker and McMillan. However you might answer that, know that Coker in no way dominated pass catching for Carolina in Week 1.
Antonio Williams (WAS)
There wasn’t much in the way of Good Stuff underlying Williams’ 64-yard, one-touchdown Week 1 outing against the Eagles. He ran a route on just 29 percent of the Commanders’ drop backs and converted all 59 of his air yards (third most on the team).
Dyami Brown last week had a better air yards situation. He finished second in air yards to Stefon Diggs while running 59 percent of the team’s routes. Neither Brown nor Williams should be rostered outside deeper leagues.
Mike Gesicki (CIN)
Don’t chase Gesicki’s Week 1 stat line (five catches, 78 yards, touchdown). He ran a meager 46 percent of the Bengals’ routes and was targeted on 45 percent of those routes. My spreadsheets say that kind of per-route target rate is unlikely to hold up for even one more week. Without more routes, Gesicki is a deep league-only play for now.
Ladd McConkey (LAC)
I’m not so worried about McConkey running hot in Week 1 before leaving the game with a hip/abdomen/chest injury that hopefully won’t keep him out for an extended period. McConkey accounted for an absurd 80 percent of the Bolts’ air yards and 55 percent of their targets before exiting. He has precisely zero target competition in the down-bad LA offense.