Dimon warns – JPMorgan CEO Jamie Dimon says interest rates could climb far higher than today, pointing to long-dated bond pressure as yields hit multi-year highs and investors weigh risks from oil, war-linked inflation fears, and budget concerns. With Iran-related tensions
Jamie Dimon didn’t sugarcoat it. As bond prices slid again this week and long-dated yields pressed into levels not seen in years, the JPMorgan Chase chairman and chief executive warned investors that the move is likely not over.
“ They could be much higher than they are today,” Dimon said in an interview with Bloomberg Television. “We may have gone from a saving glut to not enough savings.”
His message landed at a moment when long-dated bonds are taking fresh pressure. Investors have been leaning on the same worry: higher oil prices could push central banks to lift rates. The concern doesn’t stop there. Government spending in Japan. the UK and the US is also part of the calculus. and an artificial intelligence boom in the world’s biggest economy has been supporting growth—factors that have left bond buyers demanding more compensation to hold longer-maturity debt.
Dimon argued that the market’s assumption of a ceiling on yields is misplaced. “Bond rates can go up,” he said. “The notion that somehow people say they will never go up is the wrong notion. Companies like us prepare for higher rates, lower rates.”
By the time the week’s trading intensified, the numbers were already doing the talking. Yields on 30-year Treasuries rose to levels last seen in 2007, while the rate on two-year securities climbed to the highest since February 2025.
The bond selloff has been tied to investor worries about the inflationary impact of the Iran war and deficit risks in the world’s biggest economy. That backdrop matters because it changes what bondholders fear most: not just today’s rate. but the possibility that rates stay higher for longer—forcing longer-dated investors to reprice risk again.
Then came another jolt. Bonds weakened again Thursday. with yields reaching the day’s highest levels after Reuters reported that Iran’s Supreme Leader issued a directive that the country’s near-weapons-grade uranium should not be sent abroad. Oil spiked on the report. The US has been pushing Tehran to surrender its enriched uranium stockpile. and the directive is seen as a potential setback for any peace deal.
Market pricing reacted fast. The US two-year yield rose as much as five basis points to 4.11%, while the 10-year yield rose four basis points to 4.62%.
With little sign the Middle East conflict will end soon. traders are now penciling in a 70% chance of a quarter-point Federal Reserve rate hike by December. They also see a 25-basis point increase by March as a virtual certainty—an outlook that stands in stark contrast to expectations for more than two quarter-point rate cuts by the end of the year before the Iran war broke out.
Dimon also pointed to the scale of the debt challenge facing policymakers. “US government debt is $30 trillion, the average rate is 3.5%. Even today they can’t possibly refinance it lower than that rate,” he said. “They have another $2 trillion to do this year but the thing is we don’t know when — we don’t know when the world gets too scared about that. when inflation makes it where people don’t want to own long-term duration securities.”.
That’s the tension running through the market right now: when investors demand higher yields. it’s not just a technical adjustment. It’s a bet about how long inflation risk and war-linked uncertainty will linger—and how expensive it may become for governments to borrow in a world that’s no longer assumed to have plenty of savings to absorb it.
Jamie Dimon JPMorgan bond selloff interest rates 30-year Treasuries two-year yield Federal Reserve rate hike Iran uranium directive oil prices inflation risk government debt
So rates are gonna spike again? Cool cool.
I feel like every year they say “not over” and then it just… keeps happening. Oil, war, inflation, budget, AI?? Sounds like they’re making excuses for the same thing.
Wait, did he say “saving glut to not enough savings”?? That sounds like a fancy way to say people don’t save anymore, so borrowing gets more expensive. But also they blamed Iran war stuff and I’m like… is that even affecting MY mortgage or is this just CNBC math?
They always warn yields will go higher and then somehow it’s “transitory.” Also 30-year Treasuries last seen in 2007?? so we’re basically going back to the great recession vibes, right? My cousin said AI boom is why rates are weird, but then the article says deficits and Japan/UK spending too, like pick one story.