Another analysis and polling average adds to the list of predictions that Democrats can win control of at least one chamber of Congress in midterms.
Trump proposes $5,000 ‘Trump dividend’ if Republicans win midterms
President Donald Trump said on Wednesday, Sept. 9, that he would pay every American adult a $5,000 “Trump dividend” if Republicans retain control of Congress in November’s midterm election, an extraordinary attempt to persuade voters to back his party.
Democrats’ potential to win the majority in Congress – or at least in the House of Representatives – is seeming more likely, according to separately released Sept. 25 NBC News polling and analysis by the nonpartisan Cook Political Report.
The midterms are just under six weeks away, and the likelihood of Republicans to maintain their control of Congress is waning. A possible reason: President Donald Trump’s approval rating sits at an all-time-low in polling, as the president’s war in Iran and the economy are top concerns for Americans.
Democrats hold a nine-point-lead in the generic Congressional ballot, which grew after Labor Day, according to NBC News’s congressional average, which is calculated from a review that brings together many publicly available polls. The NBC News averages found that 52% of Americans prefer Congress controlled by Democrats, while only 43% of Americans prefer Republican control.
Erin Covey with the Cook Political Report published an analysis where she predicts that Democrats are likely to pick up between five to 15 seats, which would result in the party holding between 220 and 230 seats. As the House of Representatives consists of 435 members, 218 is the magic number for a party to win control.
“Unlike in 2018, the last midterm cycle when Republicans were in power, the most competitive House races are almost entirely in districts that President Donald Trump win,” Covey wrote. “But, in large part due to his handling of the economy, the president is now deeply underwater and is dragging down Republican House members and candidates across these districts.”
Republicans currently control the majority in the Senate and House, which has enabled the party to install Congressional leadership and drive the legislative agenda in both chambers, successfully moving on President Donald Trump’s agenda. In recent weeks, Republican candidates have been seen publicly splitting with the president, for example splitting with him over Iran or even Florida Republican governor candidate, U.S. Rep Byron Donalds, scrubbing his campaign website of many mentions of Trump.
For House races, the Cook Political Report rates only 22 races as toss ups and the list includes seats across all the major regions of the United States, including a cluster of Republican-controlled districts in Pennsylvania, a border district in Texas and redistricted areas in Florida. In the Senate, Democrats would have to pick up four new seats – while maintaining the ones they hold – as polling indicates razor-thin races in almost a dozen races spanning from Alaska to Texas.
Earlier this week, on Sept. 24, an Emerson College poll also revealed a Democrat 53-point to Republican 42-point split among what party that voters favored. Other polls show Democrats at a 12-point lead (NPR/PBS News/Marist Poll on Sept. 23) and an almost nine-point lead (RealClear Polling, which averages pollsters, including Economist/YouGov, Reuters/Ipsos and Morning Consult).
“While the generic ballot test doesn’t capture nuances of individual races, it’s an important metric to gauge the magnitude of a potential Democratic wave,” Spencer Kimball, executive director of Emerson College Polling, said in a statement.