Democrats in California’s Sixth face a late election squeeze

With only part of the vote counted in California’s open primary, a Democrat, Richard Pan, is trailing two Republicans in the Sixth Congressional District. The outcome hinges on how late-counted ballots shift—especially as early returns have favored Republicans

Richard Pan has spent years arguing that vaccines and preventive medicine should be more than talking points for Californians—they’re the difference between a healthy community and a system that fails families when they need it most.

On the evening of Election Day, though, his political fate is being decided by something less personal and more brutal: how many ballots remain to be counted in California’s Sixth Congressional District, and whether Democratic voters hold together long enough to make the general election.

California’s open primary system is simple on paper. The top two finishers in a given race advance to a general election runoff regardless of party. In a district that leans Democratic, that usually protects the party’s nominees. But when Democratic votes are split among multiple contenders, the math can quietly move the goalposts.

Secretary of State Shirley N. Weber urged patience as some races remained uncalled. “This is normal,” Weber said in a press release, adding, “I would call on all Californians to be patient.”

For Pan, that patience is starting to feel like a gamble. As of mid-afternoon Wednesday, with 48 percent of votes counted, Rep. Kevin Kiley was ahead with more than a quarter of the vote. In second place was Republican Michael Stansfield. Running close in third—just one percentage point behind Stansfield—was Pan.

The numbers matter because, if the pattern holds as more votes come in, Pan would not make the top two. He’d be headed back to the clinic instead of the general election.

Kiley’s position is striking for another reason: he didn’t run as a Republican in the Sixth. The incumbent from California’s Third District—who recently renounced his party to run as an independent in the Sixth—remains in contention for one of the top two spots.

Stansfield’s presence on the ballot also carries a warning. The Republican who is positioned as the second-place finisher did not run a campaign. He didn’t even have a campaign website.

Asked about his motivation, Stansfield told US News that he ran “to send a message to the religious right about peace in the Middle East,” and that he “wasn’t necessarily going after it to win.”

That kind of candid explanation—running with minimal investment and still reaching the cutoff line—has made the Sixth feel less like a conventional race and more like a stress test of the open primary system.

Pan’s challenge is sharpened by the district’s shape. The close contest reflects an unintended consequence of Prop 50, Gov. Gavin Newsom’s redistricting plan that voters approved last November. After California’s congressional map was redrawn to help more Democrats win seats. the Sixth remains blue. but it is less so than before. It has absorbed conservative regions carved out of other districts.

Stansfield’s relative surprise—he’s 50 years old and described himself as a tech worker—adds to the uncertainty. The race appears to have caught him off guard, and the vote totals so far are far from settled.

Many of the remaining votes are from northern Sacramento and the adjoining suburbs. an area that has so far favored Pan. If those ballots show up in larger numbers or in a different mix than early counts. it could shift the standings. At the same time. early ballot returns in California have been up among Republican voters this cycle. while Democratic votes have lagged compared to previous years.

Those early patterns are the reason Pan’s campaign could swing in either direction as counting continues.

The tension isn’t confined to one candidate, either. Sacrament0-based Democratic strategist Steven Maviglio warned that the math could tighten further: “I think [Pan is] going to eke it out,” he said, adding, “But it’s going to be close.”

For now, the Sixth is waiting. In a system that advances the top two no matter what party label is on the ballot. one missing slice of votes can be the difference between a Democratic nominee returning to Congress—and a Democrat going back to the work that made him politically famous in the first place.

Richard Pan Kevin Kiley Michael Stansfield Shirley N. Weber Sixth Congressional District California open primary Prop 50 Gavin Newsom Election Day U.S. House