Democrats get fresh odds of flipping Texas as James Talarico and Ken Paxton remain deadlocked, while Gina Hinojosa closes in on Gov. Greg Abbott

Texas Democrats are entering the November 3 elections with fresh hopes of breaking the Republican Party’s decades-long grip on statewide office, as polls show Democrat James Talarico and Republican Ken Paxton locked in a tight Senate race while Gina Hinojosa narrows the gap with Gov. Greg Abbott in the gubernatorial race. Recent polling has shown Talarico either leading or effectively tied with Paxton, while Abbott continues to hold an advantage over Hinojosa but by smaller margins than in previous elections.

James Talarico-Ken Paxton race tightens

An Emerson College Polling/Nexstar Media survey of 1,000 likely voters puts Paxton at 47% and Talarico at 46%, with 5% undecided and 2% supporting another candidate. Notably, the poll’s margin of error is plus or minus 3 percentage points, leaving Paxton’s one-point advantage statistically insignificant. “This polling shows Ken Paxton has consolidated Republican support, moving the race closer to even after several months of polls showing him behind. This race is close because there are significant numbers of independent voters breaking for Talarico,” University of Houston political science professor Brandon Rottinghaus told Newsweek.

Other surveys have been more favorable to Talarico. Texas Pulse found him ahead 47-43%, while Texas Public Opinion Research put him ahead 45-40%. The Texas Pulse survey also showed a sharp age divide, as Talarico’s strongest support comes from younger voters. In the poll, he led 66-23% among voters aged 18-34, while Paxton remained dominant among Republicans and voters 65 and older. A Fox News poll showed Talarico leading 51-48%, within its 3-point margin of error. “The Senate race is sharply divided by age: voters under 50 favor Talarico by 15 points, 53% to 38%, while those over 50 break for Paxton by 11 points, 53% to 42%,” Emerson executive director Spencer Kimball said.

However, Paxton’s campaign dismissed the poll’s results. “The only poll that matters is November 3rd,” spokesperson Nick Maddux told Newsweek. He added that Talarico’s record will hurt him with voters, accusing him of “endorsing reparations,” “voting against protecting kids from irreversible transition procedures,” “attacking oil and gas jobs” and “backing the largest tax increase in Texas history.”

Prediction markets give Texas Democrats another boost

The polling trend has spilled into prediction markets. As of Thursday, August 13, Kalshi gave Talarico a 53% chance of winning compared with 47% for Paxton, while Polymarket put the Democrat at 51% to Paxton’s 49%. It was the first time Talarico had moved ahead of Paxton on both markets, which might suggest that the race is being treated as competitive rather than a conventional Republican hold.

Paxton, who has President Donald Trump’s endorsement, became the Republican nominee after defeating longtime Sen. John Cornyn in a May runoff election. His political history could provide Democrats with an opening, as he was indicted on state securities-fraud charges in 2015 and was impeached by the Republican-controlled Texas House in 2023 before being acquitted by the state Senate. Paxton has repeatedly characterized the allegations aginst him as politically motivated.

Gina Hinojosa narrows gap between her and Greg Abbott

The Texas gubernatorial race is also closer than Republicans might prefer, although Abbott remains the clear favorite among forecasters. An Emerson/Nexstar poll showed Abbott ahead of Hinojosa 49-45%, with 4% undecided. A late-July Texas Southern University poll similarly found Abbott ahead 49-43%, while Texas Public Opinion Research had him leading 45-42%. A The New York Times/Siena College poll conducted June 19-27 showed Abbott ahead 51-44%, while a University of Texas/Texas Politics Project survey from June 5-12 gave him a 47-40% advantage.

Hinojosa, a lawyer who entered the Texas House in 2017, won the Democratic nomination in March. Abbott, first elected governor in 2014 and reelected in 2018 and 2022, is seeking a fourth term that would put him on course to surpass Rick Perry as Texas’ longest-serving governor.

Money and history favor Republicans, although ‘2026 is shaping up to be a good Democrat year’

Abbott’s financial advantage in the gubernatorial race is substantial. His principal campaign committee has spent more than $54.5 million during the 2026 cycle and reported more than $67.2 million in cash on hand. Hinojosa has spent just under $4 million and has approximately $3 million remaining.

Texas has not elected a Democrat to statewide office since 1994, while its presidential vote has gone Republican in every election since 1980. SMU professor Calvin Jillson cautioned against overstating the Democratic opportunity, saying, “Talarico could win this race, but reality intrudes; no Democrat has won a statewide race in Texas in more than 30 years, and though 2026 is shaping up to be a good Democrat year, be careful,” Jillson said.

Although campaign funding and history might be on the GOP’s side, Kimball pointed to growing dissatisfaction among Hispanic voters as an advantage for Democrats, saying, “Majorities of Texas Hispanic voters are dissatisfied with their federal and state executives: 58% of Hispanic voters disapprove of President Trump and 57% of Governor Abbott. This demographic also breaks for the Democrat on the ballot, by 19 for Talarico and 17 for Hinojosa.”

Rottinghaus expressed optimism about Democratic chances, saying, “What is clear from this poll and polling trends is that the race is close. Democrats haven’t seen this potential in almost a decade. The Democrats have strong tail winds from an unpopular president and the rising cost of living. This cycle highlights this unique moment as the Democrats’ best chance to break an almost 30 year statewide losing streak.”