Democrats flip four key midterm contests as Republicans lose advantages in three state Senate races and one gubernatorial race, new poll shows
According to new VoteHub polling averages, Democrats have edged past Republicans in four closely watched 2026 midterm contests, taking narrow advantages in Senate races in Iowa, Michigan and Ohio, as well as Ohio’s gubernatorial race. Although the races remain highly competitive, the latest polling suggests momentum has moved toward Democratic candidates in several critical battleground states.
Key Senate battlegrounds reshaped
The sharpest changes have come in Iowa, where Democratic state Rep. Josh Turek is challenging Republican Rep. Ashley Hinson for the seat being vacated by retiring Republican Sen. Joni Ernst. Earlier this year, polling favored Hinson in a state President Donald Trump carried by 13 points in the 2024 election. VoteHub’s April 20 polling average showed Republicans ahead by 0.7 percentage points.
By July 20, however, Democrats had moved into a slim 0.5-point lead. Despite that shift, prediction markets continue to favor Republicans. Kalshi gives Hinson a 63% chance of victory compared with 37% for Turek, while Polymarket places Hinson at 57% and Turek at 43%.
Michigan Senate race
Michigan has also moved in Democrats’ favor following the retirement of Democratic Sen. Gary Peters. Democratic Rep. Haley Stevens and progressive Abdul El-Sayed are competing in the August 4 Democratic primary, with the winner set to face Republican Mike Rogers in November.
VoteHub’s April polling average showed Republicans leading by 1.9 points. The latest July average now gives Democrats a 1.8-point advantage. Prediction markets likewise lean Democratic, with Kalshi giving Democrats roughly a 70% chance of retaining the seat and Polymarket placing Democratic chances at 69%.
A tight race in Ohio
Ohio’s Senate race has experienced a similar shift. Former Democratic Sen. Sherrod Brown is attempting to defeat Republican Sen. Jon Husted after Republicans held a narrow 0.3-point polling edge in April. By July, Democrats had opened a 0.9-point lead. Unlike Michigan, however, prediction markets view Ohio as virtually even. Kalshi gives Brown a 51% chance of victory and Husted 49%, while Polymarket narrowly favors Husted, 52% to 49%.
Ohio governor’s race also shifts toward Democrats
Ohio’s gubernatorial contest has also moved away from Republicans in recent months. Democrat Amy Acton currently holds a narrow 0.9-point advantage in VoteHub’s July polling average after Republicans led by 0.1 points in April. She is facing Republican Vivek Ramaswamy in a race that remains one of the closest statewide contests of the cycle.
Prediction markets, meanwhile, remain more optimistic about Republican prospects. Kalshi gives Ramaswamy a 58% chance of winning compared with 46% for Acton, while Polymarket estimates Republicans’ chances at 57% and Democrats’ at 43%.
The polling improvements come as Democrats try to gain the four seats needed to reclaim control of the Senate. Holding Michigan is widely viewed as essential to those efforts, while Iowa and Ohio represent two of the party’s most promising pickup opportunities.