Democrats draw – Republicans have gained a major edge in the House mapmaking fight since Donald Trump began pressuring the process, aided by GOP-appointed judges. But an analysis by election experts Stephen Wolf and David Nir suggests Democrats still have room to pick up new “
For Democrats, the redistricting war has been a test of time—less about who has the better argument and more about who could get the maps done first.
Republicans. building on favorable decisions from GOP-appointed judges on the US Supreme Court and state supreme courts. have pulled ahead since Donald Trump launched the modern push to reshape electoral boundaries. Last year alone, Republicans drew 16 new US House districts that favor their party, while Democrats were able to draw only 6. The math matters: redistricting by itself has handed Republicans a 10-seat advantage heading into November. making it harder for Democrats to win back the House even as Donald Trump’s record-low approval ratings hover over the political landscape.
Yet the story doesn’t end with the current map advantage. An analysis by election experts Stephen Wolf and David Nir. published through The Downballot. argues Democrats could still come out ahead in the redistricting war by 2028—if they use the next window to draw more districts of their own. Over the next two years. Wolf and Nir project Democrats could draw 21 new blue districts in 9 states using their own redistricting maps.
The potential gains are specific enough to feel concrete. Democrats could pick up four seats in New York, four in Virginia, three in Colorado, three in Wisconsin, two in Minnesota, and two in New Jersey. They also project one each in Illinois, Maryland, and Oregon.
That’s the optimistic part. The obstacle was timing—especially for states where Democratic lawmakers couldn’t move quickly. Many Democratic states were unable to draw new maps in time for the 2026 midterms because of constraints written into their state constitutions. Those constitutional limits meant some places simply couldn’t catch up when Republicans were getting favorable court outcomes and turning that leverage into new districts.
But over the next two years, the analysis argues Democrats should be more able—and more willing—to fight back against Trump’s election rigging.
The urgency is tied to the Supreme Court’s destruction of the Voting Rights Act. With that legal protection gone. the stakes of how districts get drawn rise sharply. because the dispute shifts from whether plans are fair in practice to whether courts and states will accept them at all. In that environment. supporters of Democratic mapmaking say leveling the playing field isn’t going to come from restraint alone—it will come from Democrats exercising the same power Republicans have used.
Yes, gerrymandering is bad for democracy. But the Wolf and Nir analysis lays out a hard political reality: to maximize their chances, Democrats may have to fight fire with fire and push their advantage wherever their mapmaking authority still allows it.
The Supreme Court and state courts have already shaped this contest once, and the next round of map drawing could decide how much of the current 10-seat gap Democrats are able to claw back before 2028.
redistricting gerrymandering US House districts Democrats Republicans Supreme Court Voting Rights Act Stephen Wolf David Nir 2026 midterms 2028
So they can still “rebuild blue seats” by 2028… okay.
I swear this is just them drawing lines until it “works.” Republicans got 16, Dems got 6, so how is it even a surprise the math favors them. And judges… like, Supreme Court judges shouldn’t be part of mapmaking either.
Wait so Democrats can add 21 districts but only if they “use their own redistricting maps”?? Doesn’t that mean the states still control it so nothing changes? Also, Trump low approval ratings don’t matter if the maps are already decided. I’m confused why people keep pretending this is about arguments.
This sounds like a process problem not a voters problem. Like New York and Virginia getting 4 each, okay but who even lives in those districts half the time because the lines change every few years. If GOP judges already helped them win 10 seats, then I don’t know how Dems “come out ahead” unless they somehow magically draw faster. Timing was the obstacle but somehow they still predict one in Oregon like it’s a checklist.