Democratic socialist Francesca Hong gets a boost in odds of winning Dem primary in crucial swing state’s gubernatorial race

Democratic socialist Francesca Hong has received a fresh boost in her bid to win Wisconsin’s Democratic gubernatorial primary, with a new poll showing her commanding a significant lead in the race. The latest survey adds to a series of polls placing Hong ahead, although experts have cautioned that a large bloc of undecided voters means the contest remains far from settled. Amid growing concern among party leaders about nominating a progressive candidate in one of the nation’s most closely contested battleground states, the outcome will be closely watched as a test of whether the Democratic Socialists of America (DSA) can translate recent victories in deep-blue cities into statewide success.

New poll puts Francesca Hong well ahead of Democratic rivals

A State Navigate poll released on Tuesday, July 28, found Hong leading the Democratic field with 44% support. Milwaukee County Executive David Crowley trailed with 15%, followed by former Lt. Gov. Mandela Barnes at 14%, while the remaining candidates registered only single-digit support.

Anthony Chergosky, a political science professor at the University of Wisconsin-La Crosse, said the size of Hong’s lead stands out. “Hong’s rise reflects the anti-establishment sentiment we have seen in Democratic primaries around the country. She has also run a distinctive, grassroots-oriented, and very online-friendly campaign. Her democratic socialism separates her from the field,” he told Newsweek. Chergosky also argued that Hong’s advantage reflects a divided opposition, saying the Democratic field is “fragmented,” with several candidates splitting the anti-Hong vote.

Notably, several other polls have also placed Hong in the lead. A Public Policy Polling survey, commissioned by Crowley’s campaign and conducted July 21 and July 22 among 708 likely voters, placed Hong at 35%, with Barnes at 15% and Crowley at 14%.

Because Wisconsin awards the nomination by plurality rather than majority, Hong could secure the Democratic nomination even if she finishes below 50%, provided her rivals continue dividing the remaining vote.

Experts urge caution over polling results

Not everyone believes the latest survey accurately reflects the statewide electorate. Kathleen Dolan, a political science professor at the University of Wisconsin-Milwaukee, said the State Navigate poll’s text-message, opt-in format could skew the results toward more engaged partisan voters.

“The responses only reflect those people who responded, not Democratic voters in Wisconsin as a whole. This is revealed in the fact that Hong’s margin of support is 1) so high, and 2) so much higher than the other candidates,” she said.

Dolan pointed to a recent Marquette University Law School poll, which showed Hong leading with 26%, Barnes at 15% and former Lt. Gov. Sara Rodriguez, who has since exited the race, at 11%. That survey also found 45% of respondents remained undecided. “The MU poll is a random selection poll that has been going for many years and has a high accuracy rate when you compare their poll results to election results,” Dolan added.

Francesca Hong’s campaign remains focused on undecided voters

Responding to the latest polling, Hong told Newsweek her campaign is encouraged but remains focused on reaching undecided voters. “What we’ve believed from the beginning, and what the polling has increasingly shown, is that there is a real hunger in Wisconsin for a politics that puts working people first,” she said.

Meanwhile, a spokesperson for Crowley’s campaign emphasized that despite what the polls show, the race remains fluid. “One clear trend from all of the polling, both public and internal, is there are a massive number of undecided voters who will ultimately decide the winner,” the spokesperson said. “As Gov. [Tony] Evers said when he endorsed David Crowley, we can’t let the Republicans meddle in our primary to pick the person they want to run against, and David has the executive experience to win the primary, general election, and govern on day one.”

Voters care more about policies than labels, Francesca Hong says

Addressing questions about her political identity, Hong argued that voters are more interested in practical solutions than ideological labels. “While some people are asking whether Wisconsin is ready to elect a democratic socialist, I believe voters are less concerned about labels than they are ideas, values and solutions,” she said.

“At the same time — and perhaps because of the work we’ve put in — a majority of Democrats in Wisconsin now view democratic socialists favorably, and even moderate and conservative Democrats are more favorable than unfavorable,” she added. “There’s only one majority in Wisconsin, and that’s the working class. People want to know who is going to make their lives more affordable, who is willing to stand up to powerful interests and who will fight for a government that works for them.”

Wisconsin gubernatorial primary seen as key test for Democrats and the DSA

The race has intensified debate within the Democratic Party, with questions raised about whether Hong’s affiliation with DSA and more progressive views could alienate moderate voters in the state. Newsweek wrote in this regard, “A Hong victory in the Democratic primary would test DSA’s electability in a key battleground state.”

Democratic strategist David Axelrod warned on X that the contest “feels like a slow-rolling car headed for a cliff,” arguing Democrats risk jeopardizing both the governor’s race and broader down-ballot opportunities by nominating Hong.

Activist Shannon Watts echoed those concerns, writing that the primary “will have significant down ballot consequences” and noting that Democrats need only modest gains to win control of both chambers of the Wisconsin Legislature. “All 99 seats in the assembly are up for election. To win control, Dems only need a net gain of 5 seats. Seventeen of 33 Senate seats are on the ballot. Dems only need a net gain of 2 seats for control. Instead, we may be looking at a Republican trifecta,” she wrote.