Democrat Rob Sand outpaces Republican Zach Lahn in new poll, gets fresh odds of flipping Iowa in closely watched gubernatorial race
Iowa State Auditor Rob Sand, a Democrat, has extended his lead over Republican businessman Zach Lahn in the state’s open governor’s race, according to a Suffolk University poll.
The poll found Sand ahead 48 percent to 44 percent among 500 likely voters, with 9 percent undecided. The survey has a margin of error of plus or minus 4.4 percentage points.
Suffolk University Political Research Center Director David Paleologos said the result “speaks volumes about where these races stand right now,” noting that President Donald Trump carried Iowa by more than 13 points in the 2024 election.
Polls point in the same direction
The Suffolk poll follows an Emerson College Polling/Nexstar Media survey that also showed Sand leading Lahn, 48 percent to 43 percent. Seven percent were undecided and 2 percent backed another candidate.
Emerson College Polling Executive Director Spencer Kimball said independent voters were driving Democratic competition, with independents favoring Sand by 26 points, 58 percent to 32 percent. They also backed Senate candidate Josh Turek by 11 points, 49 percent to 38 percent.
Kimball said Sand has performed especially well with swing voters, who favored Trump by roughly 17 points in Emerson’s final 2024 poll. About one in 10 Trump voters also said they would support Sand.
Race ratings shift toward Democrats
Several nonpartisan forecasters have shifted their assessments of the race since the summer.
Inside Elections moved the governor’s race from Lean Democratic to “tilt Democratic.” The outlet also shifted the Hinson-Turek Senate race from Lean Republican to “tilt Republican.”
Decision Desk HQ rates the Senate contest a toss-up, with Republican incumbent Ashley Hinson narrowly favored over Turek as of the poll’s release.
Candidate backgrounds and primary results
Lahn, a businessman and farmer from Belle Plaine, Iowa, won the Republican nomination with about 38 percent of the vote in a crowded primary. He defeated Trump-endorsed Rep. Randy Feenstra.
Sand ran unopposed in the Democratic primary, securing the nomination with 99.7 percent of the vote.
Financial disclosures from the parallel Senate race show the fundraising advantage Democrats have built statewide.
Turek’s Senate campaign had more than $2.3 million on hand, compared with roughly $30,500 for Hinson, according to Federal Election Commission filings.
Trump and Obama weigh in
Trump endorsed Hinson days after she entered the Senate race, continuing his pattern of backing candidates in competitive Iowa contests.
Former President Barack Obama recorded a campaign ad with Turek in which they played basketball together in a gym, highlighting Turek’s background as a former U.S. Paralympic basketball player.
Voter priorities in Iowa
The Emerson survey found the economy was the top issue for Iowa voters at 38 percent, followed by health care at 19 percent, threats to democracy at 11 percent, education at 10 percent and immigration and housing affordability at 6 percent each.
Outgoing Republican Gov. Kim Reynolds, who is not seeking reelection, had a 44 percent job approval rating in the Emerson poll, while 47 percent disapproved of her performance.