Democrat Josh Turek gets fresh odds of winning Iowa’s crucial Senate race after securing Barack Obama’s endorsement
Iowa Democratic Senate nominee Josh Turek received a major boost to his campaign on July 29, 2026, when former President Barack Obama endorsed his bid to flip the Republican-held seat being vacated by Sen. Joni Ernst.
The endorsement came in a campaign video showing Obama playing basketball with Turek, adding momentum to one of the nation’s most closely watched Senate races ahead of the November 3 general election.
The basketball video
The nearly two-minute video, posted on YouTube by Turek’s campaign, features Obama and Turek playing IOWA, a variation of the basketball game HORSE.
Turek, a state representative from Council Bluffs, is a Paralympian born with spina bifida who has used a wheelchair since childhood. He won two gold medals with the U.S. men’s national wheelchair basketball team.
During the game, the two debated their NBA Mount Rushmores. Obama named Michael Jordan, LeBron James, Kareem Abdul-Jabbar and Magic Johnson, while Turek chose Jordan, James, Abdul-Jabbar and Bill Russell.
They also reflected on Obama’s 2008 Iowa caucus victory, which launched his path to the presidency. Turek described himself as a “prairie populist” and recalled crawling up stairs to knock on voters’ doors while dragging his wheelchair behind him.
The matchup
Turek faces Republican Rep. Ashley Hinson, who has been endorsed by President Donald Trump, in the race to replace Ernst, who is retiring after two terms. The open seat is considered one of Democrats’ best pickup opportunities as the party seeks to regain the Senate majority.
Democratic optimism
Democrats have not won an Iowa Senate race since Tom Harkin’s 2008 victory and no Democratic presidential nominee has carried the state since Obama in 2012.
Even so, party leaders believe Turek can compete, pointing to his success in a state House district that Trump won three times and his efforts to appeal to voters across the political spectrum.
What Turek and Obama said
In the campaign ad, Turek said Iowans “are feeling that hope, that optimism, for the first time in a long time,” a message Obama echoed.
After losing the game of IOWA, Obama joked, “Not only did I get whooped,” before adding, “But you’ve got here a man of character, somebody who knows how to win.”
He closed the video by saying, “Now, the ball’s in your court, Iowa. Let’s make sure that we send Josh Turek to the United States Senate.”
Analysts weigh in
Kyle Kondik, managing editor of Sabato’s Crystal Ball, told Newsweek by email that the race remains Leans Republican despite its competitiveness, noting Trump carried Iowa by 13 points.
Steffen Schmidt, professor emeritus of political science at Iowa State University, told Newsweek that the Obama and Trump endorsements largely offset one another, leaving independent voters likely to determine the outcome.
Tim Hagle, an associate professor of political science at the University of Iowa, told Newsweek that endorsements generally have limited impact unless the endorser actively campaigns for the candidate.
Where the polling stands
A Fox News poll conducted found Turek leading Hinson 50 percent to 46 percent, though the advantage fell within the survey’s margin of error.
The same poll showed Trump with a 42 percent favorable rating and 55 percent unfavorable rating among Iowa voters, a 19-point decline from the November 2024 Fox News Voter Analysis.
Other recent surveys painted a tighter picture. A New York Times/Siena College poll gave Hinson a 2-point lead, while a Cygnal survey also showed her narrowly ahead.
RealClearPolitics’ polling average shows the race tied at 46.7 percent for both candidates and rates it a Toss Up.
The race has attracted growing national attention after CNN added Iowa to its list of the country’s most competitive Senate contests. Democrats see Ernst’s retirement as a rare opening in Iowa, while Republicans remain confident they can keep the seat in GOP hands.