Democrat James Talarico pulls ahead of Republican Ken Paxton for the first time in new Texas Senate poll
Democrat James Talarico has pulled ahead of Republican Ken Paxton in a new Texas Senate poll, giving Democrats fresh hope that the traditionally Republican state could become a key battleground in November.
James Talarico takes the lead
Talarico leads Paxton 47 percent to 43 percent among likely Texas voters in the latest Texas Pulse survey, conducted by ReconMR for the Texas A&M Bush School. The result marks a shift from the pollster’s June survey, when both candidates stood at 46 percent.
The four-point advantage is Talarico’s first lead in the Texas Pulse series, though the race remains close. The survey of 619 likely voters was conducted from July 27 to July 30 and has a margin of error of plus or minus 4.7 percentage points.
The numbers nevertheless represent a notable change from the June matchup.
Since June, Talarico has gained one point while Paxton has fallen three points. Talarico also holds a significant advantage among independent voters, leading Paxton 53 percent to 30 percent.
The Democrat leads among women by 53 percent to 40 percent and holds an advantage among voters younger than 65. His strongest showing comes among voters ages 18 to 34, where he leads Paxton 66 percent to 23 percent.
Paxton, meanwhile, retains strong support among Republicans and voters 65 and older.
The issues driving the race
The survey also found voters favoring Talarico over Paxton on several major issues.
“When it comes to issues, voters say Talarico would do a better job than Paxton on making prices more affordable, dealing with the war in Iran, keeping Texans safe and managing the water supply. The only issue voters think Paxton will do better at – and only barely – is securing the border with Mexico,” veteran pollster and Texas A&M Visiting Professor Clifford Young said in the survey.
Young said Paxton also faces concerns about how voters view his character. “For Paxton, the good news is voters think he’s tough. But the bad news is that a majority or plurality of voters say that Paxton is not honest, authentic or in touch with Texas values. And even worse, by a 55-35 percent margin, voters say Paxton is corrupt,” he said.
Republicans’ control of the Senate in danger
Republicans currently hold a 53-45 Senate majority, excluding independents Bernie Sanders and Angus King, who caucus with Democrats. Democrats view Texas as a possible route toward reclaiming control of the chamber, while Republicans consider the seat critical to protecting their majority.
Paxton has the backing of President Donald Trump but emerged from a divisive Republican nomination fight against Sen. John Cornyn. The latest polling suggests his challenge now extends beyond consolidating the GOP base, with independents emerging as a particular weakness.
Despite Talarico’s gains, the poll’s margin of error means the contest remains statistically tight heading toward election day.