Democrat James Talarico leads Republican Ken Paxton in Texas Senate race, poll conducted by President Donald Trump’s go-to pollster finds
Democratic state Rep. James Talarico is leading Republican Attorney General Ken Paxton by four points in a new AARP poll of the Texas Senate race.
The survey, released September 10, was conducted by Fabrizio Ward, led by longtime Donald Trump pollster Tony Fabrizio, and Democratic firm Impact Research.
The poll result came as Republicans gathered in Dallas for their first-ever midterm convention and Trump-aligned groups poured money into Paxton’s campaign.
Talarico holds four-point advantage
The AARP survey found Talarico ahead of Paxton 48 percent to 44 percent, with 8 percent of respondents undecided.
The poll surveyed 895 likely voters between August 30 and September 1 and had a margin of error of roughly 3 percentage points.
Fabrizio has served as a pollster for Trump’s presidential campaigns, making the AARP survey notable even though it was conducted by a bipartisan polling team.
Talarico’s advantage was driven partly by independents, whom he led 55 percent to Paxton’s 33 percent.
Paxton received 83 percent support from GOP voters, compared with Talarico’s 94 percent support among Democrats. Talarico’s net favorability was +7, while Paxton’s was -11.
Recent polls show a competitive race
The AARP survey result follows several other polls showing Talarico either ahead or essentially tied with Paxton. A YouGov/Univision poll had Talarico leading 48-43 between August 27 and September 4, while Texas Public Opinion Research found him ahead 48-42.
An Overton Insights survey showed the candidates tied at 50 percent each, while a University of Texas poll put Talarico ahead 42-39. Emerson College was the only recent exception, giving Paxton a 47-46 advantage.
The recent polling suggests a genuinely competitive contest rather than a clear Democratic or Republican advantage in Texas, a longtime GOP stronghold.
Republicans escalate efforts to hold Texas
The race has become important enough for the president’s political operation to intervene. MAGA Inc., a Trump-aligned super PAC, committed $10 million in spending, split between positive advertising for Paxton and negative advertising against Talarico.
Sen. Ted Cruz has described the Texas contest as a “real fight,” warning, “We could lose Texas. This is a five-alarm fire right now, and every Republican, every conservative, every non-nuts commonsense Texan needs to understand the crazies are coming out in force.”
‘Definitely a competitive year for Democrats’
Prediction markets also reflected the uncertainty surrounding Texas, with Kalshi putting both candidates at 50 percent and Polymarket giving each 51 percent.
Texas Republican strategist Brendan Steinhauser told Newsweek, “Given what’s going on in the world with the economy, with the war in Iran, and then with the sort of data center backlash happening, I think that this is definitely a competitive year for Democrats.”