Democrat Abdul El-Sayed leads all but one poll in Michigan Senate race despite resistance from within his own party as fellow Dems refuse to endorse him
Democrat Abdul El-Sayed is leading former Rep. Mike Rogers in all but one post-primary poll in Michigan’s U.S. Senate race despite backlash from members of his own party following his victory over Rep. Haley Stevens last month. A new Michigan State University poll released Tuesday, September 1, shows El-Sayed leading Rogers by 5 points among likely voters. The polling advantage comes as several centrist Democrats refused to endorse him or openly supported his Republican opponent.
Abdul El-Sayed leads most post-primary surveys
The Michigan State University poll, conducted among 779 likely voters from August 10-20, found El-Sayed leading Rogers 50% to 45%. Notably, other recent polls have largely shown similar results. EPIC-MRA gave El-Sayed a 47-43 advantage, while Susquehanna Polling & Research showed him ahead 46-39. AARP found El-Sayed commanding a narrower lead, 48-47, while TIPP Insights put him ahead at 45-42. A Democratic-aligned Senate Majority PAC poll by GBAO showed a 50-44 advantage. Fox News was the only recent survey to show El-Sayed trailing Rogers, by 47% to 51%.
Most of the surveys were within their margins of error, highlighting the uncertainty surrounding one of the country’s most closely watched 2026 Senate contests.
Democrats struggle to unite behind Abdul El-Sayed
El-Sayed, a progressive public health official, defeated the more moderate candidate Stevens in a contentious primary, but his victory has not resulted in unanimous support within the Democratic Party. Some Democrats fear his progressive positions could alienate moderate and independent voters, while others have declined to endorse him or backed Rogers. New Jersey Rep. Josh Gottheimer told CNN there is “no way I’m ever coming out for El-Sayed, right now.” Rep. Hillary Scholten also declined to endorse him, citing his ties to controversial streamer Hasan Piker. Notably, Democratic Sen. Gary Peters, who endorsed Stevens in the primary, has since called for the party to unite behind El-Sayed.
Hasan Piker controversy deepens the divide
El-Sayed faced criticism during the primary over his position on Israel and his decision to campaign with Piker, who later drew backlash after saying that if American Jews “keep putting this idea out there that they are singularly invested in Israel,” someone will “come around and take action” against them. The comments drew a wave of criticism toward both Piker and El-Sayed. State Sen. Jeremy Moss wrote afterward, “I will not be lectured by a California podcaster about what Oakland County, Michigan’s Jewish community should and shouldn’t believe.”
El-Sayed later said in a statement that “all Americans deserve the right to advocate for what they believe without fear of violence,” adding, “My commitment to Jewish safety is the same as my commitment to the safety of my own daughters. Antisemitism is a scourge, and we need to address it in all its forms. And I stand against any rhetoric that puts the community at risk.”
El-Sayed’s support for Medicare for All has also prompted Democratic opposition. State Rep. Karen Whitsett, appearing with a “Democrats for Rogers” coalition, said, “You will lose your health insurance if the other candidate gets in office. There’s no ifs, ands or buts about it. That is what Medicare for All means.”
A toss-up race despite Abdul El-Sayed’s polling edge
Wayne State University political science professor Marjorie Sarbaugh-Thompson said turnout would be decisive in the race for the Senate seat left open with the retirement of Democratic Sen. Gary Peters. “Whose base is most strongly motivated to show up and cast a ballot? Is there going to be a blue wave as there was at the midterms during Trump’s first term [in 2018]?” She said polling suggests Michigan “is going to be a close election” — a view shared by The Cook Political Report and Sabato’s Crystal Ball, which both rated the race a toss-up.