DeepState says Russia lost ground in May, first time

A prominent Ukrainian open-source tracker said Russia suffered a net monthly territorial loss in May for the first time since 2023. The result stands alongside record-high combat encounters and thousands of recorded attacks, while analysts point to changes in

For the first time in more than three years, Russia is reported to have lost ground over an entire month.

On Monday. DeepState UA—an open-source intelligence tracker widely used by Ukrainians and analysts to monitor the front lines—said Moscow gained 14 square kilometers (about 5.4 square miles) in May. but that its final. delayed tally would show a net loss of territory for Russia. The volunteer organization said it delayed releasing information about Ukraine’s advances for the full month because of security reasons. and added it was “ready to declare” the finished count would confirm that Russia had lost ground.

That declaration landed even as the fighting intensified. DeepState UA said Russia launched more frequent attacks on Ukrainian positions. with over 7. 000 recorded assaults in May—amounting to a 37.5% monthly increase. Ukraine’s defense ministry cited a closely aligned number in a statement on Monday. saying it counted 7. 008 combat encounters on the front lines in May. up from 5. 085 in April.

DeepState’s monthly territorial measure and other assessments differ in method, but the direction of the reporting is striking. DeepState said this was Ukraine’s first net gain overall since 2023, the year Kyiv launched its major counterpush.

It also comes amid analyses that say Russia’s advance has been slowing significantly, with territorial gains as of late spring starting to tilt toward Kyiv.

DeepState’s trackable “decisive control” approach matters. The organization measures progress by tracking the land the Kremlin decisively controls. meaning its tally does not include contested areas or territory Russian troops are still infiltrating. Using that approach. the think tank Institute for the Study of War—based in Washington—said on Monday it recorded a further net loss of 108 square miles for Russia in May. The think tank had previously recorded a net loss of 44.78 square miles for Russia in April.

That stands in contrast to earlier months when Russia sometimes took hundreds of square miles of territory in just a few weeks. Its fastest advance, the reporting notes, saw it claim a reported 280 square miles in November 2024 alone.

A swing back toward Ukraine would mark another milestone: it would be the first time Kyiv has reclaimed territory overall since the summer of 2023. when it mounted a major offensive in the east and south using NATO equipment. That 2023 effort was the third significant counterpush against Russia’s hold on Ukrainian territories. after Kyiv’s forces liberated large swaths of Kherson and Kharkiv the year before.

Ukrainian military leaders. including then-commander-in-chief Valerii Zaluzhnyi. said the 2023 offensive took too long to prepare. giving Russia time to fortify its position. Even so. the offensive failed to achieve the same success as earlier campaigns. with Ukraine regaining only about 150 square miles of territory before the front lines “soon turned largely stagnant.”.

The stakes are also laid out in the slower, annual picture: each year, Russia gained about 1% to 1.5% of Ukraine’s total land area, which is about 233,032 square miles.

Inside this new month-by-month accounting, the push-and-pull of the battlefield also points to potential explanations. DeepState attributed Russia’s recent losses in part to Ukraine putting capable commanders in higher positions under the new Ukrainian defense minister. Mykhailo Fedorov. who has been running the war effort since January. The Institute for the Study of War. for its part. said on Sunday that some of Ukraine’s success was linked to Kyiv carrying out more mid-range drone strikes—at distances of about 30 to 50 miles—targeting Russian logistics hubs and operations.

The United Kingdom’s defense ministry echoed that theme in an intelligence update on Monday, highlighting Ukraine’s recent drone strikes in Russia’s transportation operations in the rear.

Even with the numbers pointing toward a net loss for Russia in May. the fight on the ground shows no hint of slowing in intensity. DeepState’s own record of over 7. 000 assaults. alongside Ukraine’s count of 7. 008 combat encounters. places the month’s reported territorial shift against a backdrop of escalating pressure.

Taken together. the reporting places readers at the center of a hard question: how can Russia lose territory over a month while still conducting an increasing volume of attacks?. For now. the answer emerging from analysts and trackers hinges on what changes in command and strikes can do—especially when the counting rules start to favor decisive control rather than contested ground.

DeepState UA Russia lost ground in May Ukraine territorial gains 7008 combat encounters 2023 counterpush Institute for the Study of War drone strikes 30 to 50 miles Mykhailo Fedorov Valerii Zaluzhnyi